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关注这篇论文的作者
Dimitris Korobilis
Kenichi Shimizu

收缩与稀疏估计的贝叶斯方法

研究问题
在高维和复杂计量模型中,如何通过贝叶斯先验实现参数收缩与变量选择,并理解不同计算方法及其不确定性量化的取舍?
方法与思路
作者从线性回归中的收缩与稀疏先验入手,综述精确及近似推断,再讨论向 VAR、因子、时变参数、处理效应和分位数模型扩展。
材料陈述的贡献
摘要定位于方法综述,介绍多类先验、计算方法及其优缺点,并通过计量模型案例和配套 MATLAB 材料支持算法复现。
阅读关注点
应核对各类先验产生稀疏性的方式、超参数敏感性、近似推断误差,以及回归中的方法扩展到动态模型和混杂选择时的限制。
阅读边界
这是 arXiv 预印本,同行评审或期刊接收未核实。摘要未给出各算法的具体性质或比较结果,不能据此认定贝叶斯方法普遍更优。

原文摘要

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference is the norm in several fields of applied econometric work. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the reader to the world of Bayesian model determination, by surveying modern shrinkage and variable selection algorithms and methodologies. Bayesian inference is a natural probabilistic framework for quantifying uncertainty and learning about model parameters, and this feature is particularly important for inference in modern models of high dimensions and increased complexity. We begin with a linear regression setting in order to introduce various classes of priors that lead to shrinkage/sparse estimators of comparable value to popular penalized likelihood estimators (e.g.\ ridge, lasso). We explore various methods of exact and approximate inference, and discuss their pros and cons. Finally, we explore how priors developed for the simple regression setting can be extended in a straightforward way to various classes of interesting econometric models. In particular, the following case-studies are considered, that demonstrate application of Bayesian shrinkage and variable selection strategies to popular econometric contexts: i) vector autoregressive models; ii) factor models; iii) time-varying parameter regressions; iv) confounder selection in treatment effects models; and v) quantile regression models. A MATLAB package and an accompanying technical manual allow the reader to replicate many of the algorithms described in this review.

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