每日简报

利用因果生存森林估计右删失数据中的异质性处理效应AI 解读

Forest-based methods have recently gained in popularity for non-parametric treatment effect estimation. Building on this line of work, we introduce causal survival forests, which can be used to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in a survival and observational setting where outcomes may be right-censored. Our approach relies on orthogonal estimating equations to robustly adjust for both censoring and selection effects under unconfoundedness. In our experiments, we find…

高维矩阵值因子模型的统计推断AI 解读

This paper considers the estimation and inference of the low-rank components in high-dimensional matrix-variate factor models, where each dimension of the matrix-variates ($p \times q$) is comparable to or greater than the number of observations ($T$). We propose an estimation method called $α$-PCA that preserves the matrix structure and aggregates mean and contemporary covariance through a hyper-parameter $α$. We develop an inferential theory, establishing consistency, the…

模型误设与未知分布迁移下的稳定预测AI 解读

For many machine learning algorithms, two main assumptions are required to guarantee performance. One is that the test data are drawn from the same distribution as the training data, and the other is that the model is correctly specified. In real applications, however, we often have little prior knowledge on the test data and on the underlying true model. Under model misspecification, agnostic distribution shift between training and test data leads to inaccuracy of parameter…

稳健主成分分析中的凸与非凸优化：噪声、异常值与缺失数据AI 解读

This paper delivers improved theoretical guarantees for the convex programming approach in low-rank matrix estimation, in the presence of (1) random noise, (2) gross sparse outliers, and (3) missing data. This problem, often dubbed as robust principal component analysis (robust PCA), finds applications in various domains. Despite the wide applicability of convex relaxation, the available statistical support (particularly the stability analysis vis-à-vis random noise) remains…

高维线性测量误差模型中的推断AI 解读

For a high-dimensional linear model with a finite number of covariates measured with error, we study statistical inference on the parameters associated with the error-prone covariates, and propose a new corrected decorrelated score test and the corresponding one-step estimator. We further establish asymptotic properties of the newly proposed test statistic and the one-step estimator. Under local alternatives, we show that the limiting distribution of our corrected…

协变量辅助的经验贝叶斯估计AI 解读

We study methods for simultaneous analysis of many noisy experiments in the presence of rich covariate information. The goal of the analyst is to optimally estimate the true effect underlying each experiment. Both the noisy experimental results and the auxiliary covariates are useful for this purpose, but neither data source on its own captures all the information available to the analyst. In this paper, we propose a flexible plug-in empirical Bayes estimator that…

断点回归中稳健偏差修正推断的最优带宽选择AI 解读

Modern empirical work in Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs often employs local polynomial estimation and inference with a mean square error (MSE) optimal bandwidth choice. This bandwidth yields an MSE-optimal RD treatment effect estimator, but is by construction invalid for inference. Robust bias corrected (RBC) inference methods are valid when using the MSE-optimal bandwidth, but we show they yield suboptimal confidence intervals in terms of coverage error. We establish…