每日简报

p-filter：分组假设的多层错误发现率控制AI 解读

Summary In many practical applications of multiple testing, there are natural ways to partition the hypotheses into groups by using the structural, spatial or temporal relatedness of the hypotheses, and this prior knowledge is not used in the classical Benjamini–Hochberg procedure for controlling the false discovery rate (FDR). When one can define (possibly several) such partitions, it may be desirable to control the group FDR simultaneously for all partitions (as special…

时变 ARCH 模型中的参数稳定性与半参数推断AI 解读

Summary We develop a complete methodology for detecting time varying or non-time-varying parameters in auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) processes. For this, we estimate and test various semiparametric versions of time varying ARCH models which include two well-known non-stationary ARCH-type models introduced in the econometrics literature. Using kernel estimation, we show that non-time-varying parameters can be estimated at the usual parametric rate of…

最小二乘估计的覆盖理论AI 解读

Summary A sensible use of an estimation method requires that assessment criteria for the quality of the estimate be available. We present a coverage theory for the least squares estimate. By suitably modifying the empirical costs, one constructs statistics that are guaranteed to cover with known probability the cost associated with a next, still unseen, member of the population. All results of this paper are distribution free and can be applied to least squares problems in…

欧拉方程估计：子女与信贷约束AI 解读

Conventional estimators based on the consumption Euler equation, intensively used in studies of intertemporal consumption behavior, produce biased estimates of the effect of children on the marginal utility of consumption if consumers face credit constraints. As a more constructive contribution, I propose a tractable approach to obtaining bounds on the effect of children on the marginal utility of consumption. I estimate these bounds using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics…

有序行动博弈的估计：连锁店进入的应用AI 解读

We study the estimation of static games where players are allowed to have ordered actions, such as the number of stores to enter into a market. Assuming that payoff functions satisfy general shape restrictions, we show that equilibrium of the game implies a covariance restriction between each player's action and a component of the player's payoff function that we call the strategic index. The strategic index captures the direction of strategic interaction (i.e., patterns of…

利用高频面板评估因子定价模型AI 解读

This paper develops a new framework and statistical tools to analyze stock returns using high-frequency data. We consider a continuous-time multifactor model via a continuous-time multivariate regression model incorporating realistic empirical features, such as persistent stochastic volatilities with leverage effects. We find that the conventional regression approach often leads to misleading and inconsistent test results when applied to high-frequency data. We overcome this…

用马尔可夫链片段近似不完整函数数据AI 解读

We consider curve extension and linear prediction for functional data observed only on a part of their domain, in the form of fragments. We suggest an approach based on a combination of Markov chains and nonparametric smoothing techniques, which enables us to extend the observed fragments and construct approximated prediction intervals around them, construct mean and covariance function estimators, and derive a linear predictor. The procedure is illustrated on real and…

危机以来，标准 VAR 是否保持稳定？AI 解读

Summary Small vector autoregressions are commonly used in macroeconomics for forecasting and evaluating shock transmission. This requires VAR parameters to be stable over the evaluation and forecast sample or modeled as time‐varying. Prior work has considered whether there were sizable parameter changes in the early 1980s and in the subsequent period until the beginning of the new century. This paper conducts a similar analysis focused on the period since the recent crisis.…

EuroMInd：欧元区月度国内生产总值的密度估计AI 解读

Summary EuroMInd‐ is a density estimate of monthly gross domestic product (GDP) constructed according to a bottom‐up approach, pooling the density estimates of 11 GDP components, by output and expenditure type. The components' density estimates are obtained from a medium‐size dynamic factor model handling mixed frequencies of observation and ragged‐edged data structures. They reflect both parameter and filtering uncertainty and are obtained by implementing a bootstrap…

信贷繁荣后的崩溃：对Schularick与Taylor研究的复现AI 解读

Summary This paper replicates the results in Schularick and Taylor ( American Economic Review 2012; 102 (2): 1029–1061; ST hereafter). Specifically, I replicate ST's results in the ‘narrow’ sense by reproducing their calculations in the open source econometrics package gretl. (Gretl is an acronym for Gnu Regression, Econometrics and Time‐series Laboratory. It is available for Windows, Mac and Linux at www.gretl.sourceforge.net .) I also demonstrate the robustness of ST's…

利用高频测度推断价格与波动率的自激跳跃AI 解读

Summary Dynamic jumps in the price and volatility of an asset are modelled using a joint Hawkes process in conjunction with a bivariate jump diffusion. A state‐space representation is used to link observed returns, plus nonparametric measures of integrated volatility and price jumps, to the specified model components, with Bayesian inference conducted using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. An evaluation of marginal likelihoods for the proposed model relative to a large…

Kendall 秩相关系数变化检验AI 解读

For a bivariate time series (( X i , Y i )) i =1,..., n , we want to detect whether the correlation between X i and Y i stays constant for all i = 1,... n . We propose a nonparametric change-point test statistic based on Kendall’s tau. The asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of no change follows from a new U -statistic invariance principle for dependent processes. Assuming a single change-point, we show that the location of the change-point is consistently…

线性高斯协方差模型的最大似然估计AI 解读

Summary We study parameter estimation in linear Gaussian covariance models, which are p-dimensional Gaussian models with linear constraints on the covariance matrix. Maximum likelihood estimation for this class of models leads to a non-convex optimization problem which typically has many local maxima. Using recent results on the asymptotic distribution of extreme eigenvalues of the Wishart distribution, we provide sufficient conditions for any hill climbing method to…

结构经济模型中随机系数的半参数估计AI 解读

This paper discusses nonparametric estimation of the distribution of random coefficients in a structural model that is nonlinear in the random coefficients. We establish that the problem of recovering the probability density function ( pdf ) of random parameters falls into the class of convexly-constrained inverse problems. The framework offers an estimation method that separates computational solution of the structural model from estimation. We first discuss nonparametric…

具有非参数空间权重的函数系数空间自回归模型AI 解读

We apply local linear regression and sieve estimation technique to estimate functional coefficients and an unknown spatial weighting function, respectively, via a nonparametric GMM estimation method, where we allow both exogenous and endogenous spatial covariates. A consistency result is derived to support the method. Moreover, a two-step estimator is constructed for the functional coefficients, and under certain conditions, we show that this estimator can be oracle…

具有高维矩等式的计量经济学估计AI 解读

We consider a nonlinear structural model in which the number of moments is not limited by the sample size. The econometric problem here is to estimate and perform inference on a finite-dimensional parameter. To handle the high dimensionality, we must systematically choose a set of informative moments; in other words, delete the uninformative ones. In nonlinear models, a consistent estimator is a prerequisite for moment selection. We develop in this paper a novel two-step…

多元正态及相关分布下最大值期望的高效分解AI 解读

In structural dynamic discrete choice models, Monte Carlo integration has been the only way to evaluate the expectation of the maximum when errors are normally distributed. In this paper, however, I show that the expectation of the maximum can be decomposed as a linear combination of multivariate normal CDFs. For related distributions, such as the multivariate t-distribution, this expectation has a similar decomposition. My computational results show speed benefits of my…

条件风险价值：半参数估计与推断AI 解读

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) plays an important role in financial risk management. Nonparametric CVaR estimation suffers from the “curse of dimensionality” and slow convergence rate. To overcome these issues, we study semiparametric CVaR estimation and inference for parametric model with nonparametric noise distribution. Under a general framework that allows for many widely used time series models, we propose a semiparametric CVaR estimator that achieves the parametric…

利用闭式似然展开估计跳跃扩散模型AI 解读

The indispensable role of likelihood expansions in financial econometrics for continuous-time models has been established since the ground-breaking work of Aït-Sahalia (1999, 2002a, 2008). Jump–diffusions play an important role in modeling a variety of economic and financial variables. As a significant generalization of Li (2013), we propose a new closed-form expansion for transition density of Poisson-driven jump–diffusion models and its application in maximum-likelihood…

纳入交易信息的积分波动率有效估计AI 解读

We consider a setting where market microstructure noise is a parametric function of trading information, possibly with a remaining noise component. Assuming that the remaining noise is Op(1/n), allowing irregular times and jumps, we show that we can estimate the parameters at rate n, and propose a volatility estimator which enjoys n convergence rate. Simulation studies show that our method performs well even with model misspecification and rounding. Empirical studies…

高维相关随机效应面板模型中的预言不等式、变量选择与一致有效推断AI 解读

In this paper we study high-dimensional correlated random effects panel data models. Our setting is useful as it allows including time invariant covariates as under random effects yet allows for correlation between covariates and unobserved heterogeneity as under fixed effects. We use the Mundlak–Chamberlain device to model this correlation. Allowing for a flexible correlation structure naturally leads to a high-dimensional model in which least squares estimation easily…

无处理无混杂性条件下有序处理模型的平均处理效应识别AI 解读

We show identification of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) when treatment is specified by ordered choice in cross section or panel models. Treatment is determined by location of a latent variable (containing a continuous instrument) relative to two or more thresholds. We place no functional form restrictions on latent errors and potential outcomes. Unconfoundedness of treatment does not hold and identification at infinity for the treated is not possible. Yet we still show…

高维线性模型中单个回归系数的检验AI 解读

In linear regression models with high dimensional data, the classical z-test (or t-test) for testing the significance of each single regression coefficient is no longer applicable. This is mainly because the number of covariates exceeds the sample size. In this paper, we propose a simple and novel alternative by introducing the Correlated Predictors Screening (CPS) method to control for predictors that are highly correlated with the target covariate. Accordingly, the…

弱识别模型的条件线性组合检验AI 解读

We introduce the class of conditional linear combination tests, which reject null hypotheses concerning model parameters when a data-dependent convex combination of two identification-robust statistics is large. These tests control size under weak identification and have a number of optimality properties in a conditional problem. We show that the conditional likelihood ratio test of Moreira, 2003 is a conditional linear combination test in models with one endogenous…