每日简报

赵睿轩等对《组合回归》的讨论意见AI 解读

Ruixuan Zhao, Oliver Dukes, Linbo Wang, Lin Liu; Ruixuan Zhao, Oliver Dukes, Linbo Wang, and Lin Liu’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘Regression by com

Gaffi、Legramanti 与 Rimella 对《通过组合进行回归》的讨论AI 解读

Francesco Gaffi, Sirio Legramanti, Lorenzo Rimella; Gaffi, Legramanti, and Rimella’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘Regression by Composition’ by Farew

严景新、刘林等对《组合回归》的讨论AI 解读

Jingxin Yan, Lin Liu, Oliver Dukes, Qizhai Li, Linbo Wang; Jingxin Yan, Lin Liu, Oliver Dukes, Qizhai Li, and Linbo Wang’s contribution to the Discussion o

Cheng等对Farewell等《组合回归》的讨论AI 解读

Kaiming Cheng, Rong Jiang, Jiangfeng Wang, Keming Yu; Cheng et al's contribution to the Discussion of ‘Regression by composition’ by Farewell et al, Journa

田茂再、熊伟、马少培与梁金文对《组合回归》的讨论AI 解读

Maozai Tian, Wei Xiong, Shaopei Ma, Jinwen Liang; Maozai Tian, Wei Xiong, Shaopei Ma, and Jinwen Liang's Contribution to the Discussion of ‘Regression by C

Archer Gong Zhang 对《组合回归》的讨论AI 解读

Archer Gong Zhang; Archer Gong Zhang's contribution to the Discussion of ‘Regression by composition’ by Farewell et al, Journal of the Royal Statistical So

Andi Wang 对 Farewell 等人《通过组合进行回归》的讨论AI 解读

Andi Q Wang; Andi Wang's contribution to the Discussion of ‘Regression by composition’ by Farewell et al, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B

董梅、王林波、刘林与Oliver Dukes对“复合回归”的讨论意见AI 解读

Mei Dong, Linbo Wang, Lin Liu, Oliver Dukes; Mei Dong, Linbo Wang, Lin Liu, and Oliver Dukes's contribution to the Discussion of ‘Regression by composition

摘要暂缺

高维均值向量的分布无关收缩估计AI 解读

We introduce shrinkage estimators of the sample mean vector in high dimension. Our estimators share desirable properties relative to existing methods: they are distribution-free, consider bona-fide target estimators, and use simple estimators of the shrinkage intensities independent of the precision matrix which are L2 consistent in high dimension. Unlike existing estimators that impose that the whitened data be an i.i.d. matrix, we only impose i.i.d. across sample…

局部稳健且半参数有效的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

We propose a framework for making Bayesian parametric models robust to local misspecification. Suppose in a baseline parametric model, a parameter of interest has an interpretation in an encompassing semiparametric model. Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators are generally biased under local misspecification. We propose to augment the baseline likelihood by a multiplicative factor that involves scores for the baseline model, the efficient scores for the encompassing…

空间处理的因果推断AI 解读

Many events and policies (treatments) occur at specific spatial locations, with researchers interested in their effects on nearby units. I approach the spatial treatment setting from an experimental perspective: What ideal experiment would we design to estimate the causal effects of spatial treatments? This perspective motivates a comparison between units near realized treatment locations and units near counterfactual (unrealized) candidate locations, which differs from…

局部投影的双重稳健性与 VAR 推断的隐患AI 解读

We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be detected with probability approaching 1. This result follows from a “double robustness” property analogous to that of popular partially linear regression estimators. By contrast, the conventional VAR confidence interval with…

经济增长与大型企业的崛起AI 解读

I document that the right tail of the firm size distribution systematically thickens with economic development. To rationalize this fact, I develop a parsimonious idea search model in which both aggregate growth and the firm size distribution are endogenously determined. The model features an asymptotic balanced growth path along which Gibrat's law holds at each date, and the right tail of the firm size distribution thickens monotonically toward Zipf's law. The model also…

个性化政策的机制设计：激励运动的实地实验AI 解读

Personalizing policies can theoretically increase their effectiveness. However, personalization is difficult when individual types are unobservable and the preferences of policymakers and individuals are not aligned, which could cause individuals to misreport their type. Mechanism design offers a strategy to overcome this issue: offer an “incentive‐compatible” menu of policy choices designed to induce participants to select the variant intended for their type. Using a field…

高斯过程最大值位置分布函数的连续性AI 解读

Certain extremum estimators have asymptotic distributions that are non‐Gaussian, yet characterizable as the distribution of the arg max of a Gaussian process. This paper presents high‐level sufficient conditions under which such asymptotic distributions admit a continuous distribution function. The plausibility of the sufficient conditions is demonstrated by verifying them in three examples, namely, maximum score estimation, empirical risk minimization, and threshold…

通过近似后验传达科学不确定性AI 解读

We cast the problem of communicating scientific uncertainty as one of reporting a posterior distribution on an unknown parameter to an audience of Bayesian decision‐makers. We establish novel bounds on the audience's regret when the analyst reports an approximation to a posterior that the audience treats as exact. Under a palatable restriction on the audience's decision problems, the bounds take an especially convenient form. Under a further restriction on the audience's…

农村移民与城市非正规就业：来自巴西的证据AI 解读

This paper studies the economic effects of rural‐urban migration on Brazilian cities. Using a shift‐share IV design, we show that, over a decade, drought‐induced immigration reduces informality, has no effect on unemployment, and increases the number of formal firms and jobs. Downward formal wage adjustments play a key role, as these long‐run effects are weaker in regions with stronger wage rigidity. In the short run, when wage rigidity is strongest, we replicate the…

估计精度能够预测参数时的经验贝叶斯方法AI 解读

Gaussian empirical Bayes methods usually maintain a precision independence assumption: The unknown parameters of interest are independent from the known standard errors of the estimates. This assumption is often theoretically questionable and empirically rejected. This paper proposes to model the conditional distribution of the parameter given the standard errors as a flexibly parameterized location‐scale family of distributions, leading to a family of methods that we call…

基于最优传输的广义矩估计AI 解读

We propose a novel optimal transport‐based version of the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). Instead of handling overidentification by reweighting the data to satisfy the moment conditions (as in Generalized Empirical Likelihood methods), this method proceeds by allowing for errors in the variables of the least mean‐square magnitude necessary to simultaneously satisfy all moment conditions. This approach, based on the notions of optimal transport and Wasserstein metric,…

线性面板模型中固定效应的最优收缩估计AI 解读

Shrinkage methods are frequently used to improve the precision of least squares estimators of fixed effects. However, widely used shrinkage estimators guarantee improved precision only under strong distributional assumptions. I develop an estimator for the fixed effects that obtains the best possible mean squared error within a class of shrinkage estimators. This class includes conventional shrinkage estimators and the optimality does not require distributional assumptions.…

延迟接受算法的实验评估：来自逾百个军官劳动力市场的证据AI 解读

Internal labor markets are increasingly important for matching workers to jobs within organizations. We present evidence from a randomized trial that compares matching workers to jobs using the deferred acceptance (DA) algorithm to the traditional manager‐directed matching process. Our setting is the U.S. Army's internal labor market, which matches over 14,000 officers to units annually. We find that DA reduces administrative burden and increases match quality as measured by…

细粒度情境中的空间经济学AI 解读

We examine the application of quantitative spatial models to the growing body of fine spatial data used to study local economic outcomes. In granular settings in which people choose from a large set of potential residence‐workplace pairs, observed outcomes in part reflect idiosyncratic choices. Using analytical examples, Monte Carlo simulations, and event studies of neighborhood employment booms, we demonstrate that calibration procedures that equate observed shares and…

卖方信息精确时的多维筛选AI 解读

A multi‐product monopolist faces a buyer who is privately informed about his valuations for the goods. As is well known, optimal mechanisms are in general complicated, while simple mechanisms—such as pure bundling or separate sales—can be far from optimal and do not admit clear‐cut comparisons. We show that this changes if the monopolist has sufficiently precise information about the buyer's valuations: Now, pure bundling always outperforms separate sales; moreover, there is…