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ABSTRACT Combining a randomized controlled trial with administrative and survey data, this paper shows that credit limit extensions significantly increase total spending and income expectations. By controlling for changes in personal income expectations, the spending response to credit limit extensions weakens by approximately 30%. For financially unconstrained consumers, expectation changes account for around two‐thirds of the spending responses to limit extensions. These…

由因果 GARCH 波动驱动的非因果自回归过程AI 解读

This paper studies the introduction of causal conditional heteroskedasticity in noncausal autoregressive (AR) models. We demonstrate that, in this framework, large shocks to the innovation process driving the GARCH error term of a noncausal AR model result in heightened volatility immediately before and after a bubble crash. The non-coincidence of the σ-fields generated by past observations and past values of the GARCH process makes statistical inference nonstandard. In…

宏观审慎政策的尾部传导：叙事识别证据AI 解读

ABSTRACT We estimate the causal effects of macroprudential policies on the entire distribution of GDP growth for advanced European economies using a narrative‐identification strategy in a quantile‐regression framework. While macroprudential policy has near‐zero effects on the center of the GDP‐growth distribution, tighter policy brings benefits by reducing the variance of future growth, significantly boosting the left tail while simultaneously reducing the right. Assessing a…

We study the impact of financial aid on upward mobility. We estimate the causal impacts of a Colombian policy targeting high-achieving, low-socioeconomic-status students on later-life educational and labor market outcomes. Using regression discontinuity design, difference-in-differences, and population-wide administrative microdata, we find that the policy boosted attendance and completion at high-value-added colleges, particularly in STEM fields. Improved college quality…

This study investigates how financial literacy shapes the propensity of individuals to commit financial crime. Using state-level administrative data on criminal charges linked to comprehensive public records , we exploit a policy-based discontinuity in grade level assignment based on individual birth dates that exogenously requires certain high school cohorts to attend a financial literacy course. Our estimates suggest that exposure to the course reduces the propensity to…

Abstract This paper asks whether increasing public school funding can be an effective long-run crime-prevention strategy in the United States. Specifically, we examine the effect of increases in funding early in children’s lives on the likelihood that they are arrested as adults. We exploit quasi-experimental variation in public school funding, leveraging two natural experiments in Michigan and a novel administrative data set linking the universe of Michigan public school…

Abstract We study the role of war bonds and inflation in post-WWII federal elections. After WWII, major bouts of inflation in 1946-48 and 1950-51 depressed the real returns of the bonds sold to households during the war. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that counties with higher war bond purchases shifted their votes towards the Republican Party in postwar elections. To address the endogeneity of war bond purchases, we use an instrumental variables design,…

分位数图模型：预测、条件独立与系统性风险应用AI 解读

We propose two types of Quantile Graphical Models: (i) Conditional Independence Quantile Graphical Models (CIQGMs) characterize the conditional independence by evaluating the distributional dependence structure at each quantile index, as such, those can be used for validation of the graph structure in the causal graphical models; (ii) Prediction Quantile Graphical Models (PQGMs) characterize the statistical dependencies through the graphs of the best linear predictors under…

We show that financial constraints lead to spatial misallocation and contribute to racial disparities in housing and wealth accumulation. Using bunching and difference-in-differences designs, we document that down payment constraints disproportionately limit the ability of Black households to access housing in high-opportunity areas. We build a dynamic life-cycle model to examine the long-term wealth effects of these leverage distortions on group differences in wealth…

This paper investigates how firms’ pollution incentives are influenced by their ability to divest polluted assets. My empirical setting is a major reform that exempts purchasers from liability for past contamination. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I find that the reform reduces toxic emissions, lowers bankruptcy risk, and increases firm value. Cross-sectional tests show that the decline in emissions is driven by firms with weaker financial health and fewer…

ABSTRACT Although algorithmic trading now dominates financial markets, some exchanges continue to use human floor traders. On March 23, 2020 the NYSE suspended floor trading because of COVID‐19. Using a difference‐in‐differences analysis around the closure of the floor, we find that floor traders are important contributors to market quality. The suspension of floor trading leads to higher spreads and larger pricing errors for treated stocks relative to control stocks. To…

Abstract The economic and social integration of refugees is a key policy concern and the situation of refugee women is particularly challenging, as many never enter the labor force. We study a reform of the Swedish integration program designed to tackle this issue by increasing women's participation in and access to active labor market programs. Using administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, we show that the reform resulted in lasting improvements in…

This paper develops a difference-in-differences estimator that uses annual changes in the conforming loan limit and the 80% loan-to-value (LTV) threshold to isolate the impact of easier access to credit on house prices. Houses that become eligible for financing with an 80% LTV conforming loan increase in value by about $1.17 per square foot, controlling for a rich set of characteristics. Our estimates imply a local elasticity of house prices to interest rates below 6, which…

This paper studies the causal effects of personal investment taxes on stock returns and the financial decisions of companies. I exploit a change in legislation in 2013 which allowed stocks listed on the Alternative Investment Market, a sub-market of the London Stock Exchange, to be held in capital gains and dividend tax-exempt investment accounts for the first time. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I find that excess stock returns decreased by their…

Abstract We leverage the discontinuity in the assignment mechanism of the Small and Medium Enterprise Instrument—the first European research and development (R&D) subsidy targeting small firms—to provide the broadest quasi-experimental evidence on R&D grants over both geographical and sectoral scopes. Grants trigger sizable impacts on a wide range of firm-level outcomes. Heterogeneous effects are consistent with grants reducing financial frictions. This reduction is due to…

Abstract We show that the entry of formal financial institutions can have far-reaching and long-lasting impacts on informal lending and social networks more generally. We first study the introduction of microfinance in 75 villages in Karnataka, India, 43 of which were exposed to microfinance. Using difference-in-differences, we show that networks shrank more in exposed villages. Moreover, links between households that were both unlikely to borrow from microfinance were at…

ABSTRACT This paper studies the role of moral hazard and liquidity in driving household bankruptcy. First, I estimate that increases in potential debt forgiveness have a positive, but small, effect on filing using a regression kink design. Second, exploiting quasi‐experimental variation in mortgage payment reductions, I estimate that filing is five times more responsive to cash‐on‐hand than relief generosity. Using a sufficient statistic, I show the estimates imply large…

We use variation in the access to a government credit certification program to estimate the financial and real effects of supporting small firms. This program was first implemented during the global financial crisis, but has remained active ever since, allowing us to analyze its effects both during recessions and recoveries. Eligible firms have access to government loan guarantees and a credit quality certification. We estimate real effects using a multidimensional…

事件研究中检测不连续性的置换检验AI 解读

We propose using a permutation test to detect discontinuities in an underlying economic model at a known cutoff point. Relative to the existing literature, we show that this test is well suited for event studies based on time‐series data. The test statistic measures the distance between the empirical distribution functions of observed data in two local subsamples on the two sides of the cutoff. Critical values are computed via a standard permutation algorithm. Under a…

Outside of flood hazard zones, households must decide whether to insure or rely on disaster assistance to manage flood risk. We use the quasi-random flooding generated by Hurricane Harvey, which hit Houston in August 2017, to understand the implications of flood losses for households with differing access to insurance and credit. Outside the floodplain, credit-constrained homeowners experience a 20% increase in bankruptcies and a 13% increase in the share of debt in severe…

条件矩模型的贝叶斯估计与比较AI 解读

Abstract We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The non-parametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed to satisfy a sequence of unconditional moments based on an increasing (in sample size) vector of approximating functions (such as tensor splines based on the splines of each conditioning variable). For any given sample size,…

We explain when and how staggered difference-in-differences regression estimators, commonly applied to assess the impact of policy changes, are biased. These biases are likely to be relevant for a large portion of research settings in finance, accounting, and law that rely on staggered treatment timing, and can result in Type-I and Type-II errors. We summarize three alternative estimators developed in the econometrics and applied literature for addressing these biases,…

We document that localized policies aimed at mitigating climate risk can have unintended consequences due to regulatory arbitrage by firms. Using a difference-in-differences framework to study the impact of the California cap-and-trade program with U.S. plant-level data, we show that financially constrained firms shift emissions and output from California to other states where they have similar plants that are underutilized. By contrast, unconstrained firms do not make such…

This paper investigates how individual attention triggers influence financial risk-taking based on a large sample of trading records from a brokerage service that sends standardized push messages on stocks to retail investors. By exploiting the data in a difference-in-differences (DID) setting, we find attention triggers increase investors’ risk-taking. Our DID coefficient implies attention trades carry, on average, a 19 percentage-point-higher leverage than non-attention…