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同质性检验：稀疏函数型数据的困难AI 解读

Abstract Testing the homogeneity between two samples of functional data is an important task. While this is feasible for intensely measured functional data, we explain why it is challenging for sparsely measured functional data and show what can be done for such data. In particular, we show that testing the marginal homogeneity based on point-wise distributions is feasible under some mild constraints and propose a new two-sample statistic that works well with both…

基于置换与求和检验的真实发现比例保证AI 解读

Abstract Sum-based global tests are highly popular in multiple hypothesis testing. In this paper, we propose a general closed testing procedure for sum tests, which provides lower confidence bounds for the proportion of true discoveries (TDPs), simultaneously over all subsets of hypotheses. These simultaneous inferences come for free, i.e., without any adjustment of the α-level, whenever a global test is used. Our method allows for an exploratory approach, as simultaneity…

复杂纵向研究中的近端因果推断AI 解读

Abstract A standard assumption for causal inference about the joint effects of time-varying treatment is that one has measured sufficient covariates to ensure that within covariate strata, subjects are exchangeable across observed treatment values, also known as ‘sequential randomization assumption (SRA)’. SRA is often criticized as it requires one to accurately measure all confounders. Realistically, measured covariates can rarely capture all confounders with certainty.…

用于最优动态治疗策略估计的贝叶斯似然回归AI 解读

Abstract Clinicians often make sequences of treatment decisions that can be framed as dynamic treatment regimes. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian likelihood-based dynamic treatment regime model that incorporates regression specifications to yield interpretable relationships between covariates and stage-wise outcomes. We define a set of probabilistically-coherent properties for dynamic treatment regime processes and present the theoretical advantages that are…

结合结构学习、监督学习与生成对抗学习检验有向无环图AI 解读

In this article, we propose a new hypothesis testing method for directed acyclic graph (DAG). While there is a rich class of DAG estimation methods, there is a relative paucity of DAG inference solutions. Moreover, the existing methods often impose some specific model structures such as linear models or additive models, and assume independent data observations. Our proposed test instead allows the associations among the random variables to be nonlinear and the data to be…

职业技术教育的影响：来自康涅狄格州技术高中体系的证据AI 解读

Abstract We examine the effect of attending stand-alone technical high schools in Connecticut using regression discontinuity. Male students are 10 percentage points more likely to graduate from high school and have half a semester less time enrolled in college. Male students have 32% higher average quarterly earnings. Earnings effects may in part reflect general skills: male students have higher attendance rates and test scores, industry fixed effects explain less than…

疫苗有效性检测阴性设计研究中的双负对照推断AI 解读

The test-negative design (TND) has become a standard approach to evaluate vaccine effectiveness against the risk of acquiring infectious diseases in real-world settings, such as Influenza, Rotavirus, Dengue fever, and more recently COVID-19. In a TND study, individuals who experience symptoms and seek care are recruited and tested for the infectious disease which defines cases and controls. Despite TND's potential to reduce unobserved differences, in healthcare seeking…

观察性区组设计的Bahadur效率AI 解读

To be convincing, an observational or nonrandomized study of causal effects must demonstrate that its conclusions cannot be readily explained by a small unmeasured bias in the way individuals were assigned to treatment or control. The Bahadur relative efficiency of a sensitivity analysis compares the performance of different test statistics or different research designs when sensitivity to unmeasured bias is appraised: better statistics and better designs exhibit…

利用近端映射开展贝叶斯推断：维数变化下的不确定性量化AI 解读

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of obtaining a point estimate via optimization, it is much more challenging to quantify their uncertainty. In the Bayesian framework, a major difficulty is that if assigning the prior associated with a p-dimensional measure, then there is zero…

分类混合模型投影AI 解读

In many practical problems, there is interest in the estimation of mixed effect projections for new data that are outside the range of the training data. Examples include predicting extreme small area means for rare populations or making treatment decisions for patients who do not fit typical risk profiles. Standard methods have long been known to struggle with such problems since the training data may not provide enough information about potential model changes for these…

亚马孙雨林环境政策的最优定向配置AI 解读

Abstract This article sets out a data-driven approach for targeting environmental policies optimally in order to combat deforestation. We focus on the Amazon, the world’s most extensive rainforest, where Brazil’s federal government issued a “Priority List” of municipalities in 2008—a blacklist to be targeted with more intense environmental monitoring and enforcement. First, we estimate the causal impact of the Priority List on deforestation (along with other relevant…

动态模型的工具变量方法AI 解读

Abstract We present a new class of methods for identification and inference in dynamic models with serially correlated unobservables, which typically imply that state variables are econometrically endogenous. In the context of Industrial Organization, these state variables often reflect econometrically endogenous market structure. We propose the use of Generalized Instrument Variables methods to identify those dynamic policy functions that are consistent with instrumental…

信息假设较弱时的离散博弈估计AI 解读

Abstract We propose a method to estimate static discrete games with weak assumptions on the information available to players. We do not fully specify the information structure of the game but allow instead for all information structures consistent with players knowing their own payoffs. To make this approach tractable, we adopt as a solution concept Bayes correlated equilibrium (BCE). We characterize the sharp identified set under BCE and unrestricted equilibrium selection,…

函数型时间序列的自助法预测带AI 解读

Efstathios Paparoditisa and Han Lin ShangbaDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, CyprusbDepartment of Actuarial Studies and Business Analytics, Macquarie Universi...

基于 NHANES 混合生物监测数据评估美国人的 PCB 与 PBDE 暴露差异AI 解读

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) has been continuously biomonitoring Americans' exposure to two families of harmful environmental chemicals: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). However, biomonitoring these chemicals is expensive. To save cost, in 2005, NHANES resorted to pooled biomonitoring; i.e., amalgamating individual specimens to form a pool and measuring chemical levels from pools. Despite being…

广义线性模型中控制错误发现率的无尺度方法AI 解读

The Generalized Linear Model (GLM) has been widely used in practice to model counts or other types of non-Gaussian data. This article introduces a framework for feature selection in the GLM that can achieve robust False Discovery Rate (FDR) control. The main idea is to construct a mirror statistic based on data perturbation to measure the importance of each feature. FDR control is achieved by taking advantage of the mirror statistic’s property that its sampling distribution…

对抗机器学习：贝叶斯视角AI 解读

Adversarial Machine Learning (AML) is emerging as a major field aimed at protecting Machine Learning (ML) systems against security threats: in certain scenarios there may be adversaries that actively manipulate input data to fool learning systems.This creates a new class of security vulnerabilities that ML systems may face, and a new desirable property called adversarial robustness essential to trust operations based on ML outputs.Most work in AML is built upon a…

无效工具变量与 GWAS 汇总数据下的转录组关联研究因果推断AI 解读

Transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) have recently emerged as a popular tool to discover (putative) causal genes by integrating an outcome GWAS dataset with another gene expression/transcriptome GWAS (called eQTL) dataset. In our motivating and target application, we'd like to identify causal genes for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), which is crucial for developing new treatments for hyperlipidemia and cardiovascular diseases. The statistical principle…

相关网络规模推估模型：识别子群体之间的联系AI 解读

Aggregated relational data (ARD), formed from "How many X's do you know?" questions, is a powerful tool for learning important network characteristics with incomplete network data. Compared to traditional survey methods, ARD is attractive as it does not require a sample from the target population and does not ask respondents to self-reveal their own status. This is helpful for studying hard-to-reach populations like female sex workers who may be hesitant to reveal their…

识别他汀使用相关二型糖尿病风险最高的亚组：电子健康记录证据AI 解读

There have been increased concerns that the use of statins, one of the most commonly prescribed drugs for treating coronary artery disease, is potentially associated with the increased risk of new-onset Type II diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, to date, there is no robust evidence supporting as to whether and what kind of populations are indeed vulnerable for developing T2D after taking statins. In this case study, leveraging the biobank and electronic health record data in the…

多响应回归与多元方差分析的有效完全分布无关中心向外秩检验AI 解读

Extending rank-based inference to a multivariate setting such as multiple-output regression or MANOVA with unspecified d-dimensional error density has remained an open problem for more than half a century. None of the many solutions proposed so far is enjoying the combination of distribution-freeness and efficiency that makes rank-based inference a successful tool in the univariate setting. A concept of center-outward multivariate ranks and signs based on measure…

个体化决策规则的稳健性AI 解读

With the emergence of precision medicine, estimating optimal individualized decision rules (IDRs) has attracted tremendous attention in many scientific areas. Most existing literature has focused on finding optimal IDRs that can maximize the expected outcome for each individual. Motivated by complex individualized decision making procedures and the popular conditional value at risk (CVaR) measure, we propose a new robust criterion to estimate optimal IDRs in order to control…

基于最大均值差异的 Copula 估计AI 解读

This article deals with robust inference for parametric copula models. Estimation using canonical maximum likelihood might be unstable, especially in the presence of outliers. We propose to use a procedure based on the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) principle. We derive nonasymptotic oracle inequalities, consistency and asymptotic normality of this new estimator. In particular, the oracle inequality holds without any assumption on the copula family, and can be applied in the…

用于多模态数据整合的广义液态关联分析AI 解读

Multimodal data are now prevailing in scientific research. One of the central questions in multimodal integrative analysis is to understand how two data modalities associate and interact with each other given another modality or demographic variables. The problem can be formulated as studying the associations among three sets of random variables, a question that has received relatively less attention in the literature. In this article, we propose a novel generalized liquid…