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使用潜在结果进行因果推断AI 解读

Causal effects are defined as comparisons of potential outcomes under different treatments on a common set of units. Observed values of the potential outcomes are revealed by the assignment mechanism—a probabilistic model for the treatment each unit receives as a function of covariates and potential outcomes. Fisher made tremendous contributions to causal inference through his work on the design of randomized experiments, but the potential outcomes perspective applies to…

二元关系数据的双线性混合效应模型AI 解读

This article discusses the use of a symmetric multiplicative interaction effect to capture certain types of third-order dependence patterns often present in social networks and other dyadic datasets. Such an effect, along with standard linear fixed and random effects, is incorporated into a generalized linear model, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is provided for Bayesian estimation and inference. In an example analysis of international relations data, accounting…

删失位置—尺度回归模型的非参数识别与估计AI 解读

In this article we consider identification and estimation of a censored nonparametric location scale-model. We first show that in the case where the location function is strictly less than the (fixed) censoring point for all values in the support of the explanatory variables, the location function is not identified anywhere. In contrast, when the location function is greater or equal to the censoring point with positive probability, the location function is identified on the…

不可忽略缺失机制下线性混合效应模型的渐近偏差AI 解读

Summary In longitudinal studies, missingness of data is often an unavoidable problem. Estimators from the linear mixed effects model assume that missing data are missing at random. However, estimators are biased when this assumption is not met. In the paper, theoretical results for the asymptotic bias are established under non-ignorable drop-out, drop-in and other missing data patterns. The asymptotic bias is large when the drop-out subjects have only one or no observation,…

时间安排不平衡的纵向数据分析AI 解读

Summary The paper considers modelling, estimating and diagnostically verifying the response process generating longitudinal data, with emphasis on association between repeated meas-ures from unbalanced longitudinal designs. Our model is based on separate specifications of the moments for the mean, standard deviation and correlation, with different components possibly sharing common parameters. We propose a general class of correlation structures that comprise random effects,…

总体分位数的迭代平滑自助法置信区间AI 解读

This paper investigates the effects of smoothed bootstrap iterations on coverage probabilities of smoothed bootstrap and bootstrap-t confidence intervals for population quantiles, and establishes the optimal kernel bandwidths at various stages of the smoothing procedures. The conventional smoothed bootstrap and bootstrap-t methods have been known to yield one-sided coverage errors of orders O(n−1/2) and o(n−2/3), respectively, for intervals based on the sample quantile of a…

摘要暂缺

In this paper we measure the effect of Catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores. Because we do not have a good instrumental variable for Catholic school attendance, we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables. We also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the…

均值回归测量误差对工资与就业纵向研究的影响AI 解读

This note examines the implications of mean-reverting mea-surement error for two influential literatures based on longitudinal survey data: (1) the literature on real wage variation over the business cycle and (2) the literature on intertemporal substitution in labor supply. Accounting for mean-reverting measurement error suggests that real wages may be even more procyclical than indicated by recent longitudinal studies. We also find that the instrumental variables estimator…

创造还是摧毁就业？沃尔玛扩张的劳动力市场效应AI 解读

This paper estimates the effect of Wal-Mart expansion on retail employment at the county level. Using an instrumental variables approach to correct for both measurement error in entry dates and endogeneity of the timing of entry, I find that Wal-Mart entry increases retail employment by 100 jobs in the year of entry. Half of this gain disappears over the next five years as other retail establishments exit and contract, leaving a long-run statistically significant net gain of…

选择与企业存续：1825—1914年造船业的证据AI 解读

Several theories of firm performance can explain the well known observation that survival is positively related to age. However, a more mundane explanation-selection bias driven by variations in firm quality-may also underlie the phenomenon. This paper employs a 90 year plant-level panel data set on the U.S. iron and steel shipbuilding industry of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries to discriminate between the explanations. The shipbuilding industry exhibits the…

贸易有益还是有害于环境？厘清因果关系AI 解读

We seek to contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking: What is the effect of trade on a country's environment, for a given level of GDP? We take specific account of the endogeneity of trade, using exogenous geographic determinants of trade as instrumental variables. We find that trade tends to reduce three measures of air pollution. Statistical significance is high for concentrations of SO2, moderate for NO2, and lacking for particulate matter.…

分位数处理效应的工具变量模型AI 解读

The ability of quantile regression models to characterize the heterogeneous impact of variables on different points of an outcome distribution makes them appealing in many economic applications. However, in observational studies, the variables of interest (e.g., education, prices) are often endogenous, making conventional quantile regression inconsistent and hence inappropriate for recovering the causal effects of these variables on the quantiles of economic outcomes. In…

工资、工作经验与任职年限AI 解读

In this paper we study the sources of wage growth. We identify the contribution to such growth of general, sector specific and firm specific human capital. Our results are interpretable within the context of a model where the returns to human capital may be heterogeneous and where firms may offer different combinations of entry level wages and firm specific human capital development. We allow for the possibility that wages are match specific and that workers move jobs as a…

The difference-in-differences (DID) estimator is one of the most popular tools for applied research in economics to evaluate the effects of public interventions and other treatments of interest on some relevant outcome variables. However, it is well known that the DID estimator is based on strong identifying assumptions. In particular, the conventional DID estimator requires that, in the absence of the treatment, the average outcomes for the treated and control groups would…

住房需求估计及其解释城市种族居住隔离的应用AI 解读

We present a three-stage, nonparametric estimation procedure to recover willingness to pay for housing attributes. In the first stage we estimate a nonparametric hedonic home price function. In the second stage we recover each consumer's taste parameters for product characteristics using first-order conditions for utility maximization. Finally, in the third stage we estimate the distribution of household tastes as a function of household demographics. As an application of…

含不可观测异质性的动态非线性面板模型：初始条件问题的简便解法AI 解读

Abstract I study a simple, widely applicable approach to handling the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear unobserved effects models. Rather than attempting to obtain the joint distribution of all outcomes of the endogenous variables, I propose finding the distribution conditional on the initial value (and the observed history of strictly exogenous explanatory variables). The approach is flexible, and results in simple estimation strategies for at least three…

美国环境质量近期趋势的稳健推断AI 解读

Abstract Understanding trends in environmental quality is important for individuals and policymakers. Typically, trends in environmental quality are determined solely through comparisons of unconditional or conditional mean pollution levels. However, reaching unambiguous conclusions on the basis of only the first moment of the (unconditional or conditional) distribution is problematic since it ignores what is occurring in different regions of the distribution. Even relying…

We consider estimation of the received treatment effect on a dichotomous outcome in randomised trials with non-compliance. We explore inference about the parameters of the structural mean models of Robins (1994, 1997) and Robins et al. (1999). We show that, in contrast to the additive and multiplicative structural mean models for continuous and count outcomes, unbiased estimating functions for a nonzero (structural) treatment effect parameter do not exist in the presence of…

不依从情形下的结构均值效应AI 解读

A randomized, placebo-controlled blood pressure (BP) reduction trial has recorded compliance measures by electronic monitoring. Causal questions regarding dose effects are of interest, but one often wants to avoid the assumption that compliance quantiles on both randomized arms are comparable. Structural mean models (SMMs) do avoid this assumption; however, they do not allow for interaction effects between variables observed on different randomized arms. Such an interaction…

事件判定不完整时的事件发生时间数据分析AI 解读

In many multicenter, randomized clinical trials, the primary outcome is the time to the first of a number of possible clinical events. An event classification committee may be convened to determine whether events that have been reported by investigators meet the predetermined criteria for primary endpoint events. When interim analyses are performed in such trials, the final classification for many reported events will not be known. Failure to account for the uncertain status…

The central limit theorem for student's distribution—solution.

随机前沿模型的半参数贝叶斯推断AI 解读

In this paper we propose a semiparametric Bayesian framework for the analysis of stochastic frontiers and efficiency measurement. The distribution of inefficiencies is modelled nonparametrically through a Dirichlet process prior. We suggest prior distributions and implement a Bayesian analysis through an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, which allows us to deal with practically relevant sample sizes. We also allow for the efficiency distribution to vary with firm…

面板二元变量与充分性：推广条件 LogitAI 解读

This paper extends the conditional logit approach (Rasch, Andersen, Chamberlain) used in panel data models of binary variables with correlated fixed effects and strictly exogenous regressors. In a two-period two-state model, necessary and sufficient conditions on the joint distribution function of the individual-and-period specific shocks are given such that the sum of individual binary variables across time is a sufficient statistic for the individual effect. By extending a…