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面板广义线性模型中时间不变未观测异质性的检验AI 解读

Recent literature on panel data emphasizes the importance of accounting for time-varying unobservable individual effects, which may stem from either omitted individual characteristics or macro-level shocks that affect each individual unit differently. In this paper, we propose a simple specification test of the null hypothesis that the individual effects are time-invariant against the alternative that they are time-varying. Our test is an application of Hausman (1978)…

异质面板中因子结构的推断AI 解读

This paper develops an estimation and testing framework for a stationary large panel model with observable regressors and unobservable common factors. We allow for slope heterogeneity and for correlation between the common factors and the regressors. We propose a two stage estimation procedure for the unobservable common factors and their loadings, based on Common Correlated Effects estimator and the Principal Component estimator. We also develop two tests for the null of no…

存在联立关系的非参数模型估计AI 解读

We introduce methods for estimating nonparametric, nonadditive models with simultaneity. The methods are developed by directly connecting the elements of the structural system to be estimated with features of the density of the observable variables, such as ratios of derivatives or averages of products of derivatives of this density. The estimators are therefore easily computed functionals of a nonparametric estimator of the density of the observable variables. We consider…

矩不等式及其应用AI 解读

This paper provides conditions under which the inequality constraints generated by either single agent optimizing behavior or the best response condition of multiple agent problems can be used as a basis for estimation and inference. An application illustrates how the use of these inequality constraints can simplify the analysis of complex behavioral models.

衰退期间的消费动态AI 解读

Are there times when durable spending is less responsive to economic stimulus? We argue that aggregate durable expenditures respond more sluggishly to economic shocks during recessions because microeconomic frictions lead to declines in the frequency of households' durable adjustment. We show this by first using indirect inference to estimate a heterogeneous agent incomplete markets model with fixed costs of durable adjustment to match consumption dynamics in PSID microdata.…

近期生产函数估计方法的识别性质AI 解读

This paper examines some of the recent literature on the estimation of production functions. We focus on techniques suggested in two recent papers, Olley and Pakes (1996) and Levinsohn and Petrin (2003). While there are some solid and intuitive identification ideas in these papers, we argue that the techniques can suffer from functional dependence problems. We suggest an alternative approach that is based on the ideas in these papers, but does not suffer from the functional…

广义回归折点设计中的因果效应推断AI 解读

A.1. Proofs of Propositions 1 and 2IN ORDER TO PROVE PROPOSITION 1, we first present and prove the following lemmas.LEMMA 1: Let ϕ(x t) : I × [c d] → R, where I is a compact subset of R m .Suppose ϕ(x t) and its partial derivative, ϕ 2 (x t), are continuous and that ϕ is integrable with respect to the probability measure α for each t.Then f (t) = ϕ(x t) dα(x) is continuously differentiable on [c d].PROOF: By Theorem 5 (p.97) of Roussas (2004), f (t) = ϕ 2 (x t) dα(x) for all…

高阶理性的识别AI 解读

Strategic choice data from a carefully chosen set of ring‐network games are used to obtain individual‐level estimates of higher‐order rationality. The experimental design exploits a natural exclusion restriction that is considerably weaker than the assumptions underlying alternative designs in the literature. In our data set, 93 percent of subjects are rational, 71 percent are rational and believe others are rational, 44 percent are rational and hold second‐order beliefs…

工具变量有效性检验AI 解读

This paper develops a specification test for instrument validity in the heterogeneous treatment effect model with a binary treatment and a discrete instrument. The strongest testable implication for instrument validity is given by the condition for nonnegativity of point‐identifiable compliers' outcome densities. Our specification test infers this testable implication using a variance‐weighted Kolmogorov–Smirnov test statistic. The test can be applied to both discrete and…

存在聚集现象的模型中无需工具变量的外生性检验AI 解读

This paper presents a test of the exogeneity of a single explanatory variable in a multivariate model. It does not require the exogeneity of the other regressors or the existence of instrumental variables. The fundamental maintained assumption is that the model must be continuous in the explanatory variable of interest. This test has power when unobservable confounders are discontinuous with respect to the explanatory variable of interest, and it is particularly suitable for…

动态婚姻匹配：一个实证框架AI 解读

The paper proposes a dynamic version of the frictionless Becker-Shapley-Shubik marriage matching model with transferable utility. Its primary objective is to develop a tractable model that rationalizes the marriage distribution of ‘who marries whom’ by age. This behavioral dynamic model rationalizes a new marriage matching function. An empirical methodology that relies on the equilibrium outcomes of the model identies the marital preferences over spouses. This framework also…

高维横截面检验的功效增强AI 解读

= 0 against sparse alternatives where the null hypothesis is violated only by a couple of components. Existing tests based on quadratic forms such as the Wald statistic often suffer from low powers due to the accumulation of errors in estimating high-dimensional parameters. More powerful tests for sparse alternatives such as thresholding and extreme-value tests, on the other hand, require either stringent conditions or bootstrap to derive the null distribution and often…

因子数未知时含交互固定效应的线性面板回归AI 解读

In this paper we study the least squares (LS) estimator in a linear panel regression model with unknown number of factors appearing as interactive fixed effects. Assuming that the number of factors used in estimation is larger than the true number of factors in the data, we establish the limiting distribution of the LS estimator for the regression coefficients as the number of time periods and the number of cross-sectional units jointly go to infinity. The main result of the…

离散选择的非参数福利分析AI 解读

We consider empirical measurement of equivalent/compensating variation resulting from price-change of a discrete good using individual-level data, when there is unobserved heterogeneity in preferences.We show that for binary and unordered multinomial choice, the marginal distributions of EV/CV can be expressed as simple closed-form functionals of conditional choice-probabilities under essentially unrestricted preference-distributions.These results hold even when the…

带有选择厌恶的动态 Logit 模型AI 解读

The copyright to this Article is held by the Econometric Society. It may be downloaded, printed and reproduced only for educational or research purposes, including use in course packs. No downloading or copying may be done for any commercial purpose without the explicit permission of the Econometric Society. For such commercial purposes contact the Office of the Econometric Society (contact information may be found at the website

纳入基线协变量的半参数自然直接效应模型估计AI 解读

Establishing cause-effect relationships is a standard goal of empirical science. Once the presence of a causal relationship is established, the precise causal mechanism involved becomes a topic of interest. A particularly popular type of mechanism analysis concerns questions of mediation, that is to what extent an effect is direct, and to what extent it is mediated by a third variable. A semiparametric theory has recently been proposed which allows multiply robust estimation…

Q-learning 的交互式模型构建AI 解读

Evidence-based rules for optimal treatment allocation are key components in the quest for efficient, effective health care delivery. Q-learning, an approximate dynamic programming algorithm, is a popular method for estimating optimal sequential decision rules from data. Q-learning requires the modeling of nonsmooth, nonmonotone transformations of the data, complicating the search for adequately expressive, yet parsimonious, statistical models. The default Q-learning working…

关系数据的非参数贝叶斯动态建模AI 解读

Symmetric binary matrices representing relations are collected in many areas. Our focus is on dynamically evolving binary relational matrices, with interest being on inference on the relationship structure and prediction. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian dynamic model, which reduces dimensionality in characterizing the binary matrix through a lower-dimensional latent space representation, with the latent coordinates evolving in continuous time via Gaussian processes. By…

风险差的广义 Cornfield 条件AI 解读

A central question in causal inference with observational studies is the sensitivity of conclusions to unmeasured confounding. The classical Cornfield condition allows us to assess whether an unmeasured binary confounder can explain away the observed relative risk of the exposure on the outcome. It states that for an unmeasured confounder to explain away an observed relative risk, the association between the unmeasured confounder and the exposure and the association between…

CAM：因果加性模型、高维排序搜索与惩罚回归AI 解读

We develop estimation for potentially high-dimensional additive structural equation models. A key component of our approach is to decouple order search among the variables from feature or edge selection in a directed acyclic graph encoding the causal structure. We show that the former can be done with nonregularized (restricted) maximum likelihood estimation while the latter can be efficiently addressed using sparse regression techniques. Thus, we substantially simplify the…

多国公司治理研究方法：来自BRIKT国家的证据AI 解读

We discuss empirical challenges in multicountry studies of the effects of firm-level corporate governance on firm value, focusing on emerging markets. We assess the severe data, “construct validity”, and endogeneity issues in these studies, propose methods to respond to those issues, and apply those methods to a study of five major emerging markets—Brazil, India, Korea, Russia, and Turkey. We develop unique time-series datasets on governance in each country. We address…

利用面板bootstrap改进共同基金绩效评价推断AI 解读

Two new methodologies are introduced to improve inference in the evaluation of mutual fund performance against benchmarks. First, the benchmark models are estimated using panel methods with both fund and time effects. Second, the non-normality of individual mutual fund returns is accounted for by using panel bootstrap methods. We also augment the standard benchmark factors with fund-specific characteristics, such as fund size. Using a dataset of UK equity mutual fund…

首次派付与停止派付的信息含量是否影响企业风险？AI 解读

We study the influence on firm risks of NASDAQ and NYSE firm payout initiations and omissions. These payout events can be interpreted as managerial signals of firm financial life-cycle maturation resulting in concomitant changes in firm risks. We remove confounding payout types and we match on the propensity to initiate or omit informed by determinants of payout known to investors in advance. For payout event and matched firms, we apply the difference-in-differences method…

倾向得分重加权与匹配估计量有限样本性质的新证据AI 解读

Fr�lich (2004) compares the finite sample properties of reweighting and matching estimators of average treatment effects and concludes that reweighting performs far worse than even the simplest matching estimator. We argue that this conclusion is unjustified. Neither approach dominates the other uniformly across data-generating processes (DGPs). Expanding on Fr�lich's analysis, this paper analyzes empirical as well as hypothetical DGPs and also examines the effect of…