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利用倾向得分残差估计处理效应的简单最小二乘方法AI 解读

Propensity score matching is widely used to control covariates when analysing the effects of a nonrandomized binary treatment. However, it requires several arbitrary decisions, such as how many matched subjects to use and how to choose them. In this paper a simple least squares estimator is proposed, where the treatment, and possibly the response variable, is replaced by the propensity score residual. The proposed estimator controls covariates semiparametrically if the…

随机化视角下的方差分析：对处理效应异质性稳健的检验统计量AI 解读

Fisher randomization tests for Neyman’s null hypothesis of no average treatment effect are considered in a finite-population setting associated with completely randomized experiments involving more than two treatments. The consequences of using the |$F$| statistic to conduct such a test are examined, and we argue that under treatment effect heterogeneity, use of the |$F$| statistic in the Fisher randomization test can severely inflate the Type I error under Neyman’s null…

分位数回归中的边际线性效应检验AI 解读

Summary The paper develops a new marginal testing procedure to detect significant predictors that are associated with the conditional quantiles of a scalar response. The idea is to fit the marginal quantile regression on each predictor one at a time, and then to base the test on the t-statistics that are associated with the most predictive predictors. A resampling method is devised to calibrate this test statistic, which has non-regular limiting behaviour due to the…

具有社区结构的网络中节点受欢迎度的区块模型AI 解读

Summary The community structure that is observed in empirical networks has been of particular interest in the statistics literature, with a strong emphasis on the study of block models. We study an important network feature called node popularity, which is closely associated with community structure. Neither the classical stochastic block model nor its degree-corrected extension can satisfactorily capture the dynamics of node popularity as observed in empirical networks. We…

存在内生性的门槛回归AI 解读

This paper studies estimation in threshold regression with endogeneity in the regressors and thresholding variable. Three key results differ from those in regular models. First, both the threshold point and the threshold effect parameters are shown to be identified without the need for instrumentation. Second, in partially linear threshold models, both parametric and nonparametric components rely on the same data, which prima facie suggests identification failure. But, as…

基于三类检验原理的非参数设定检验AI 解读

Tests are developed for inference on a parameter vector whose dimension grows slowly with sample size. The statistics are based on the Lagrange Multiplier, Wald and (pseudo) Likelihood Ratio principles, admit standard normal asymptotic distributions under the null and are straightforward to compute. They are shown to be consistent and possessing non-trivial power against local alternatives. The settings considered include multiple linear regression, panel data models with…

含少量或大量异质参与者及潜在序列相关状态的动态模型：贝叶斯估计AI 解读

We propose a Bayesian approach to estimating dynamic models that can have state variables that are latent, serially correlated, and heterogeneous. Our approach employs sequential importance sampling and is based on deriving an unbiased estimate of the likelihood within a Metropolis chain. Under fairly weak regularity conditions unbiasedness guarantees that the stationary density of the chain is the exact posterior, not an approximation. Results are verified by Monte Carlo…

样本选择模型的极端分位数回归与黑人—白人工资差距AI 解读

We consider the estimation of a semiparametric sample selection model without instrument or large support regressor. Identification relies on the independence between the covariates and selection, for arbitrarily large values of the outcome. We propose a simple estimator based on extremal quantile regression and establish its asymptotic normality by extending previous results on extremal quantile regressions to allow for selection. Finally, we apply our method to estimate…

相关随机效应面板中不可分单指标模型的识别与估计AI 解读

The identification in a nonseparable single-index models with correlated random effects is considered in panel data with a fixed number of time periods. The identification assumption is based on the correlated random effects structure. Under this assumption, the parameters of interest are identified up to a multiplicative constant and could be estimated by an average difference of derivatives estimator based on the local polynomial smoothing. We suggest to linearly combine…

空间自回归模型的权重矩阵选择与模型平均AI 解读

Spatial econometrics relies on the spatial weights matrix to specify the cross-sectional dependence; however, the candidate spatial weights matrices might not be unique. This paper proposes a model selection procedure to choose a weights matrix from several candidates by using a Mallows type criterion. We prove that when the true weights matrix is not in the candidates, the procedure is asymptotically optimal in the sense of minimizing the squared loss; otherwise, the…

董事会多样性、企业风险与公司政策AI 解读

We examine the effects of diversity in the board of directors on corporate policies and risk. Using a multidimensional measure, we find that greater board diversity leads to lower volatility and better performance. The lower risk levels are largely due to diverse boards adopting more persistent and less risky financial policies. However, consistent with diversity fostering more efficient (real) risk-taking, firms with greater board diversity also invest persistently more in…

秩相似性检验AI 解读

We introduce a test of the rank invariance or rank similarity assumption common in treatment effects and instrumental variables models. The test probes the implication that the conditional distribution of ranks should be identical across treatment states using a regression-based test statistic. We apply the test to data from the Tennessee STAR class-size reduction experiment and show that systematic slippages in rank can be important statistically and economically.

存在样本选择与自选择的二元响应面板数据模型AI 解读

Summary We consider estimating binary response models on an unbalanced panel, where the outcome of the dependent variable may be missing due to nonrandom selection, or there is self‐selection into a treatment. In the present paper, we first consider estimation of sample selection models and treatment effects using a fully parametric approach, where the error distribution is assumed to be normal in both primary and selection equations. Arbitrary time dependence in errors is…

多变量选择与社会互动的识别AI 解读

Summary This paper considers the identification of social interaction effects in the context of multivariate choices. First, we generalize the theoretical social interaction model to allow individuals to make interdependent choices in different activities. Based on the theoretical model, we propose a simultaneous equation network model and discuss the identification of social interaction effects in the econometric model. We also provide an empirical example to show the…

博弈中非均衡行为的实证模型AI 解读

This paper studies the identification and estimation of the decision rules that individuals use to determine their actions in games, based on a structural econometric model of non‐equilibrium behavior in games. The model is based primarily on various notions of limited strategic reasoning, allowing multiple modes of strategic reasoning and heterogeneity in strategic reasoning across individuals and within individuals. The paper proposes the model and provides sufficient…

具有转移支付的匹配博弈估计AI 解读

I explore the estimation of transferable utility matching games, encompassing many‐to‐many matching, marriage, and matching with trading networks (trades). Computational issues are paramount. I introduce a matching maximum score estimator that does not suffer from a computational curse of dimensionality in the number of agents in a matching market. I apply the estimator to data on the car parts supplied by automotive suppliers to estimate the valuations from different…

以因果模型选择识别犯罪的动态溢出AI 解读

Does crime in a neighborhood cause future crime? Without a source of quasi‐experimental variation in local crime, we develop an identification strategy that leverages a recently developed test of exogeneity (Caetano (2015)) to select a feasible regression model for causal inference. Using a detailed incident‐based data set of all reported crimes in Dallas from 2000 to 2007, we find some evidence of dynamic spillovers within certain types of crimes, but no evidence that…

非参数工具变量回归的最优上确界范数收敛率与非线性泛函一致推断AI 解读

This paper makes several important contributions to the literature about nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) estimation and inference on a structural function h0 and functionals of h0. First, we derive sup‐norm convergence rates for computationally simple sieve NPIV (series two‐stage least squares) estimators of h0 and its derivatives. Second, we derive a lower bound that describes the best possible (minimax) sup‐norm rates of estimating h0 and its derivatives, and…

尖锐断点回归估计量的两侧最优带宽联合选择AI 解读

A new bandwidth selection method that uses different bandwidths for the local linear regression estimators on the left and the right of the cut‐off point is proposed for the sharp regression discontinuity design estimator of the average treatment effect at the cut‐off point. The asymptotic mean squared error of the estimator using the proposed bandwidth selection method is shown to be smaller than other bandwidth selection methods proposed in the literature. The approach…

相依与受限观测下不连续准则的局部M估计AI 解读

We examine the asymptotic properties of local M-estimators under three sets of high-level conditions. These conditions are sufficiently general to cover the minimum volume predictive region, the conditional maximum score estimator for a panel data discrete choice model and many other widely used estimators in statistics and econometrics. Specifically, they allow for discontinuous criterion functions of weakly dependent observations which may be localized by kernel smoothing…

高维删失分位数回归AI 解读

Censored quantile regression (CQR) has emerged as a useful regression tool for survival analysis. Some commonly used CQR methods can be characterized by stochastic integral-based estimating equations in a sequential manner across quantile levels. In this paper, we analyze CQR in a high dimensional setting where the regression functions over a continuum of quantile levels are of interest. We propose a two-step penalization procedure, which accommodates stochastic integral…

We revisit the classic semi‐parametric problem of inference on a low‐dimensional parameter θ0 in the presence of high‐dimensional nuisance parameters η0. We depart from the classical setting by allowing for η0 to be so high‐dimensional that the traditional assumptions (e.g. Donsker properties) that limit complexity of the parameter space for this object break down. To estimate η0, we consider the use of statistical or machine learning (ML) methods, which are particularly…

单侧检验中控制错误发现率的预知与自适应方法：理论及处理效应评价应用AI 解读

Economists are often interested in identifying effective policies or treatments together with subpopulations of individuals who respond positively (or with a sign that is expected) to these treatment interventions. In this paper, we propose an optimal false discovery rate controlling method that is especially useful for such one‐sided testing problems. The proposed procedure is optimal in the sense of minimizing the false non‐discovery rate while controlling the false…

短期删失动态面板模型的半参数识别与估计AI 解读

In this paper, we present a semi‐parametric identification and estimation method for censored dynamic panel data models of short time periods and their average partial effects with only two periods of data. The proposed method transforms the semi‐parametric specification of censored dynamic panel data models into a parametric family of distribution functions of observables without specifying the distribution of the initial condition. Then the censored dynamic panel data…