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简单随机系数自回归模型中的最小二乘估计AI 解读

The question we discuss is whether a simple random coefficient autoregressive model with infinite variance can create the long swings, or persistence, which are observed in many macroeconomic variables. The model is defined by yt=stρyt−1+εt,t=1,…,n, where st is an i.i.d. binary variable with p=P(st=1), independent of εt i.i.d. with mean zero and finite variance. We say that the process yt is persistent if the autoregressive coefficient ρˆn of yt on yt−1 is close to one. We…

存在结构突变的长记忆过程预测AI 解读

We develop an easy-to-implement method for forecasting a stationary autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) process subject to structural breaks with unknown break dates. We show that an ARFIMA process subject to a mean shift and a change in the long memory parameter can be well approximated by an autoregressive (AR) model and suggest using an information criterion (AIC or Mallows’ Cp) to choose the order of the approximate AR model. Our method avoids…

欧元区政府债券利差的建模与预测：GVAR模型AI 解读

This paper proposes an extension to Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) models to capture time-varying interdependence among financial variables. Government bond spreads in the euro area feature a time-varying pattern of co-movement that poses a serious challenge for econometric modelling and forecasting. This pattern of the data is not captured by the standard specification that model spreads as persistent processes reverting to a time-varying mean determined by two…

近期及持续结构变化下的自适应预测AI 解读

We consider time series forecasting in the presence of ongoing structural change where both the time series dependence and the nature of the structural change are unknown. Methods that downweight older data, such as rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially weighted moving averages, known to be robust to historical structural change, are found also to be useful in the presence of ongoing structural change in the forecast period. A…

存在结构突变时的最优预测AI 解读

This paper considers the problem of forecasting under continuous and discrete structural breaks and proposes weighting observations to obtain optimal forecasts in the MSFE sense. We derive optimal weights for one step ahead forecasts. Under continuous breaks, our approach largely recovers exponential smoothing weights. Under discrete breaks, we provide analytical expressions for optimal weights in models with a single regressor, and asymptotically valid weights for models…

时间序列的渐进分块经验似然方法AI 解读

This article develops a new blockwise empirical likelihood (BEL) method for stationary, weakly dependent time processes, called the progressive block empirical likelihood (PBEL). In contrast to the standard version of BEL, which uses data blocks of constant length for a given sample size and whose performance can depend crucially on the block length selection, this new approach involves a data-blocking scheme where blocks increase in length by an arithmetic progression.…

大型稀疏列联表时间依赖的贝叶斯建模AI 解读

In many applications, it is of interest to study trends over time in relationships among categorical variables, such as age group, ethnicity, religious affiliation, political party and preference for particular policies. At each time point, a sample of individuals provide responses to a set of questions, with different individuals sampled at each time. In such settings, there tends to be abundant missing data and the variables being measured may change over time. At each…

考虑时间序列依赖的统计学习：小鼠睡眠评分应用AI 解读

We develop methodology which combines statistical learning methods with generalized Markov models, thereby enhancing the former to account for time series dependence. Our methodology can accommodate very general and very long-term time dependence structures in an easily estimable and computationally tractable fashion. We apply our methodology to the scoring of sleep behavior in mice. As currently used methods are expensive, invasive, and labor intensive, there is…

持续性周期对零频率单位根检验的影响AI 解读

In this paper we investigate the impact of persistent (nonstationary or near nonstationary) cycles on the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of standard unit root tests. Results are presented for the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) normalized bias and t -ratio-based tests (Dickey and Fuller, 1979, Journal of the American Statistical Association 745, 427–431; Said and Dickey, 1984; Biometrika 71, 599–607). the variance ratio unit root test of Breitung (2002, Journal of…

非平稳自回归中利用虚拟变量处理无限方差创新AI 解读

We consider estimation and testing in finite-order autoregressive models with a (near) unit root and infinite-variance innovations. We study the asymptotic properties of estimators obtained by dummying out “large” innovations, i.e., those exceeding a given threshold. These estimators reflect the common practice of dealing with large residuals by including impulse dummies in the estimated regression. Iterative versions of the dummy-variable estimator are also discussed. We…

交互固定效应面板模型中的同质性检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a residual-based Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for slope homogeneity in large-dimensional panel data models with interactive fixed effects. We first run the panel regression under the null to obtain the restricted residuals and then use them to construct our LM test statistic. We show that after being appropriately centered and scaled, our test statistic is asymptotically normally distributed under the null and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. The…

存在水平变化与确定性趋势时的记忆参数估计AI 解读

We propose estimators of the memory parameter of a time series that are robust to a wide variety of random level shift processes, deterministic level shifts, and deterministic time trends. The estimators are simple trimmed versions of the popular log-periodogram regression estimator that employ certain sample-size-dependent and, in some cases, data-dependent trimmings that discard low-frequency components. We also show that a previously developed trimmed local Whittle…

非线性协整向量误差修正模型中的检验与推断AI 解读

We analyze estimators and tests for a general class of vector error correction models that allows for asymmetric and nonlinear error correction. For a given number of cointegration relationships, general hypothesis testing is considered, where testing for linearity is of particular interest. Under the null of linearity, parameters of nonlinear components vanish, leading to a nonstandard testing problem. We apply so-called sup-tests to resolve this issue, which requires…

时空最大稳定过程的统计推断AI 解读

Summary Max-stable processes have proved to be useful for the statistical modelling of spatial extremes. Several families of max-stable random fields have been proposed in the literature. One such representation is based on a limit of normalized and rescaled pointwise maxima of stationary Gaussian processes that was first introduced by Kabluchko and co-workers. This paper deals with statistical inference for max-stable space–time processes that are defined in an analogous…

二阶平稳性检验与局部平稳序列自协方差的近似置信区间AI 解读

Summary Many time series are not second order stationary and it is not appropriate to analyse them by using methods designed for stationary series. The paper introduces a new test for second-order stationarity that detects kinds of departures from stationarity that are different from those based on Fourier methods. The new test is also computationally fast, designed to work with Gaussian and a wide range of non-Gaussian time series, and can locate non-stationarities in time…

结构 VAR 模型中脉冲响应函数的推断AI 解读

Skepticism toward traditional identifying assumptions based on exclusion restrictions has led to a surge in the use of structural VAR models in which structural shocks are identified by restricting the sign of the responses of selected macroeconomic aggregates to these shocks. Researchers commonly report the vector of pointwise posterior medians of the impulse responses as a measure of central tendency of the estimated response functions, along with pointwise 68% posterior…

长记忆、短记忆与负记忆时间序列中学生化均值的分布理论AI 解读

We consider the problem of estimating the variance of the partial sums of a stationary time series that has either long memory, short memory, negative/intermediate memory, or is the first-difference of such a process. The rate of growth of this variance depends crucially on the type of memory, and we present results on the behavior of tapered sums of sample autocovariances in this context when the bandwidth vanishes asymptotically. We also present asymptotic results for the…

竞争政策与生产率增长：一项实证评估AI 解读

Abstract This paper estimates the impact of competition policy on total factor productivity growth for 22 industries in twelve OECD countries over 1995 to 2005. We find a positive and significant effect of competition policy as measured by created indexes. We provide results based on instrumental variables estimators and heterogeneous effects to support the causal nature of the established link. The effect is particularly strong for specific aspects of competition policy…

含移动平均误差的随机波动率模型及其通胀预测应用AI 解读

We introduce a new class of models that has both stochastic volatility and moving average errors, where the conditional mean has a state space representation. Having a moving average component, however, means that the errors in the measurement equation are no longer serially independent, and estimation becomes more difficult. We develop a posterior simulator that builds upon recent advances in precision-based algorithms for estimating these new models. In an empirical…

弱白噪声假设的稳健自适应速率最优检验AI 解读

A new test is proposed for the weak white noise null hypothesis. The test is based on a new automatic selection of the order for a Box–Pierce (1970) test statistic or the test statistic of Hong (1996). The heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) critical values from Lee (2007) are used, allowing for estimation of the error term. The data-driven order selection is tailored to detect a new class of alternatives with autocorrelation coefficients which can be…

非参数动态面板模型：核估计与设定检验AI 解读

Motivated by the first-differencing method for linear panel data models, we propose a class of iterative local polynomial estimators for nonparametric dynamic panel data models with or without exogenous regressors. The estimators utilize the additive structure of the first-differenced model—the fact that the two additive components have the same functional form, and the unknown function of interest is implicitly defined as a solution of a Fredholm integral equation of the…

预测回归模型中的统一推断AI 解读

The restricted likelihood has been found to provide a well-behaved likelihood ratio test in the predictive regression model even when the regressor variable exhibits almost unit root behavior. Using the weighted least squares approximation to the restricted likelihood obtained in Chen and Deo, we provide a quasi restricted likelihood ratio test (QRLRT), obtain its asymptotic distribution as the nuisance persistence parameter varies, and show that this distribution varies…

时间序列边际分布的估计及其在重尾分布中的应用AI 解读

This article addresses estimating parametric marginal densities of stationary time series in the absence of precise information on the dynamics of the underlying process. We propose using an estimator obtained by maximization of the “quasi-marginal” likelihood, which is a likelihood written as if the observations were independent. We study the effect of the (neglected) dynamics on the asymptotic behavior of this estimator. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the…

因子增强 VARMA 模型及其宏观经济应用AI 解读

We study the relationship between vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) and factor representations of a vector stochastic process. We observe that, in general, vector time series and factors cannot both follow finite-order VAR models. Instead, a VAR factor dynamics induces a VARMA process, while a VAR process entails VARMA factors. We propose to combine factor and VARMA modeling by using factor-augmented VARMA (FAVARMA) models. This approach is applied to forecasting…