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如何解释收敛假说检验AI 解读

This paper provides a framework for understanding the cross- section and time series approaches which have been used to test the convergence hypothesis. First, we present two definitions of convergence which capture the implications of the neoclassical growth model for the relationship between current and future cross-country output differences. Second, we identify how the cross-section and time series approaches relate to these definitions. Cross-section tests are shown to…

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原假设下干扰参数未被识别时的统计推断AI 解读

The authors study the asymptotic distribution of econometric tests involving nuisance parameters that are not identified under the null hypotheses. In general, the asymptotic distributions depend upon a large number of unknown parameters. The authors show that a transformation based upon a conditional probability measure yields an asymptotic distribution free of nuisance parameters and they show that this transformation can be easily approximated via simulation. The theory…

时间序列贝叶斯推断的渐近理论AI 解读

This paper develops an asymptotic theory of Bayesian inference for time series. A limiting representation of the Bayesian data density is obtained and shown to be of the same general exponential form for a wide class of likelihoods and prior distributions. Continuous time and discrete time cases are studied. In discrete time, an embedding theorem is given which shows how to embed the exponential density in a continuous time process. From the embedding we obtain a large…

有限方差误差下单位根过程 LAD 估计的渐近理论AI 解读

In this paper we derive the asymptotic distribution of the least absolute deviations ( LAD ) estimator of the autoregressive parameter under the unit root hypothesis, when the errors are assumed to have finite variances, and present LAD -based unit root tests, which, under heavy-tailed errors, are expected to be more powerful than tests based on least squares. The limiting distribution of the LAD estimator is that of a functional of a bivariate Brownian motion, similar to…

针对周期自回归的局部最优检验：参数与非参数方法AI 解读

Locally asymptotically optimal tests are derived for the null hypothesis of traditional AR dependence, with unspecified AR coefficients and unspecified innovation densities, against an alternative of periodically correlated AR dependence. Parametric and nonparametric rank-based versions are proposed. Local powers and asymptotic relative efficiencies (with respect, e.g., to the corresponding Gaussian Lagrange multiplier tests proposed in Ghysels and Hall [1992, “Lagrange…

利用无限阶向量自回归过程检验因果关系AI 解读

Tests for Granger-causality have been performed in numerous empirical studies. These tests are usually based on finite order vector autoregressive (VAR) processes, and the assumption is made that the model fitted to the available data corresponds to the true data generating mechanism. In the present study, the more general assumption is made that a finite order VAR model is fitted to a potentially infinite order process. The order is assumed to increase with the sample size.…

单位圆上或附近根的 MA(1) 过程极大似然估计AI 解读

This paper considers maximum likelihood estimation for the moving average parameter θ in an MA(1) model when θ is equal to or close to 1. A derivation of the limit distribution of the estimate θ LM , defined as the largest of the local maximizers of the likelihood, is given here for the first time. The theory presented covers, in a unified way, cases where the true parameter is strictly inside the unit circle as well as the noninvertible case where it is on the unit circle.…

实际工资、消费与资产收益的时间序列分析AI 解读

This paper re-examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption, real wages, and asset returns can be explained by a neoclassical model. Previous empirical rejections of the model have suggested that the optimal labour contract model might be appropriate for understanding the time series properties of the real wage rate and consumption. We show that an optimal contract model restricts the long-run relation of the real wage rate and consumption. We exploit…

含测量误差的自回归模型估计量的渐近性质AI 解读

Let ${X_t, t \epsilon \mathbb{Z}}$ be an observable strictly stationary sequence of random variables and let $X_t = U_t + \varepsilon_t$, where ${U_t}$ is an AR (p) and ${\varepsilon_t}$ is a strictly stationary sequence representing errors of measurement in ${X_t}$, with $E{\varepsilon_1} = 0$. Under some broad assumptions on ${\varepsilon_t}$ we establish the consistency properties as well as the rates of convergence for the standard estimators for the autoregressive…

拟似然模型与最优推断AI 解读

Consider an ergodic Markov chain on the real line, with parametric models for the conditional mean and variance of the transition distribution. Such a setting is an instance of a quasi-likelihood model. The customary estimator for the parameter is the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator. It is not efficient, but as good as the best estimator that ignores the parametric model for the conditional variance. We construct two efficient estimators. One is a convex combination of…

非线性时间序列中若干估计量与序贯残差经验过程的渐近理论AI 解读

This paper establishes the asymptotic uniform linearity of M- and R-scores in a family of nonlinear time series and regression models. It also gives an asymptotic expansion of the standardized sequential residual empirical process in these models. These results are, in turn, used to obtain the asymptotic normality of certain classes of M-, R- and minimum distance estimators of the underlying parameters. The classes of estimators considered include analogs of Hodges-Lehmann,…

遍历平稳时间序列的非参数推断AI 解读

The setting is a stationary, ergodic time series. The challenge is to construct a sequence of functions, each based on only finite segments of the past, which together provide a strongly consistent estimator for the conditional probability of the next observation, given the infinite past. Ornstein gave such a construction for the case that the values are from a finite set, and recently Algoet extended the scheme to time series with coordinates in a Polish space. The present…

跨行业与跨国生产率：时间序列理论与证据AI 解读

The authors examine whether convergence in aggregate productivity is also occurring at the industry level in fourteen OECD countries from 1970 to 1987. Using both cross-section and time-series methods, they find convergence in some sectors, such as services. However, surprisingly, the authors find that convergence does not hold for the manufacturing sector. Decomposing aggregate convergence into industry productivity gains and changing sectoral shares of output, they find…

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断点内生选择下的结构稳定性检验：解析与自助法的尺寸比较AI 解读

We compare the performance of two alternative approximations to the finite-sample distributions of test statistics for structural change, one based on asymptotics and one based on the bootstrap. We focus on tests acknowledging that the breakpoint is selected endogenously — in particular, the ‘supremum’ tests of Andrews (1993). We explore a variety of issues of interest in applied work, focusing particularly on smaller samples and persistent dynamics. The bootstrap…

基于 OLS 残差的抗趋势结构变化检验AI 解读

We discuss the null distribution and local power of an OLS-based version of the CUSUM test and show that this, contrary to other tests for structural change like, e.g., the Ploberger-Kontrus-Krämer fluctuation test, can also be applied to trending data.

正态线性回归中的最优变点检验AI 解读

This paper determines a class of finite-sample optimal tests for the existence of a changepoint at an unknown time in a normal linear multiple regression model with known variance. Optimal tests for multiple changepoints are also derived. It is shown that the results cover some models of cointegration. Power comparisons of several tests are provided based on simulations.

存在机制转换的协整模型中基于残差的检验AI 解读

In this paper we examine tests for cointegration which allow for the possibility of regime shifts. We propose ADF-, Zα-, and Zt-type tests designed to test the null of no cointegration against the alternative of cointegration in the presence of a possible regime shift. In particular we consider cases where the intercept and/or slope coefficients have a single break of unknown timing. A formal proof is provided for the limiting distributions of the various tests for the…

阶梯形 VARMA 模型的设定AI 解读

The echelon form of a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model is considered. Its advantages over other identified VARMA representations are discussed. Furthermore, a general strategy for specifying echelon form VARMA models from data is presented. Specifically, procedures for choosing the Kronecker indices that characterize an echelon form are reviewed. The feasibility of the method is demonstrated by analyzing a well-known set of flour price time series and the…

An experiment is performed to assess the prevalence of instability in univariate and bivariate macroeconomic time series relations and to ascertain whether various adaptive forecasting techniques successfully handle any such instability. Formal tests for instability and out-of-sample forecasts from sixteen different models are computed using a sample of seventy-six representative U.S. monthly postwar macroeconomic time series, constituting 5,700 bivariate forecasting…

短暂市场风潮与 1987 年股灾AI 解读

Using a fad model with Markov-switching heteroscedasticity in both the fundamental and fad components (UC-MS model), this paper examines the possibility that the 1987 stock market crash was an example of a short-lived fad. While we usually think of fads as speculative bubbles, what the UC-MS model seems to be picking up is unwarranted pessimism which the market exhibited with the OPEC oil shock and the '87 crash. Furthermore, the conditional variance implied by the UC-MS…