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长期与短期结构的识别：ISLM 模型应用AI 解读

In this paper we discuss the problem of identification in a model with cointegration. It is pointed out that there is an identification problem for both long-run parameters and short-run parameters. The identification of the equations and the cointegrating relations is achieved by linear restrictions on the parameters and a criterion for a statistical model to be identifying is given. We also define empirical identification of an estimated structure. A switching algorithm…

线性二次模型中的协整检验AI 解读

This article evaluates the finite-sample performance of various tests for cointegration by Monte Carlo methods. The evaluation takes place within the linear quadratic model. The results indicate sharp differences in the ability of the tests to detect cointegrating relations, especially when the cost-of-adjustment term and the number of regressors are large. Although no single test dominates for all the parameter settings considered, overall the augmented Dickey-Fuller,…

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自回归模型的近似中位数无偏估计AI 解读

This paper introduces approximately median-unbiased estimators and confidence intervals for univariate AR(p) models with time trends. The methods are applied to the Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data series, the extended Nelson-Plosser series, and some annual stock dividend and price series. The results show that most of the series exhibit substantially greater persistence than least squares estimates and some Bayesian estimates suggest. For example, for the extended…

单位根与协整检验的近似渐近分布函数AI 解读

Monte Carlo experiments and response surface regressions are used to calculate approximate asymptotic distribution functions for a number of well-known unit root and cointegration test statistics. These allow empirical workers to calculate approximate P values for these tests. The results of the paper are based on an extensive set of Monte Carlo experiments, which yield finite-sample quantiles for several sample sizes. Response surface regressions are then used to obtain…

一种一致的单位根检验AI 解读

This article investigates several U.S. macroeconomic time series for the presence of a unit root using a newly developed test. This test has stationarity as its null hypothesis and the alternative is a unit-root process. The test is shown to be consistent and its asymptotic null distribution is determined. The authors' findings contrast sharply with those obtained via the standard unit-root tests.

长记忆时间序列的半参数分析AI 解读

We study problems of semiparametric statistical inference connected with long-memory covariance stationary time series, having spectrum which varies regularly at the origin: There is an unknown self-similarity parameter, but elsewhere the spectrum satisfies no parametric or smoothness conditions, it need not be in $L_p$, for any $p > 1$, and in some circumstances the slowly varying factor can be of unknown form. The basic statistic of interest is the discretely averaged…

以协整为原假设、无协整为备择的残差检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a residual-based test of the null of cointegration using a structural single equation model. It is shown that the limiting distribution of the test statistic for cointegration can be made free of nuisance parameters when the cointegrating relation is efficiently estimated. The limiting distributions are given in terms of a mixture of a Brownian bridge and vector Brownian motion. It is also shown that this test is consistent. Critical values are given for…

存在线性趋势时协整秩似然比检验的有限样本性质AI 解读

This paper investigates the finite sample properties of likelihood ratio tests for 'stochastic cointegration' that have recently been proposed by S. Johansen and P. Perron and J. Y. Campbell. The author transforms the model into a canonical form and conducts a comprehensive simulation study. He finds that the test performance is very sensitive to the value of the stationary root(s) of the process and to the correlation between the innovations that drive the stationary and…

小样本偏误与调整成本AI 解读

The response of most stock variables (e.g., capital, housing, consumer durables, and prices) to exogenous impulses involves a dynamic-or 'short-run' - reaction, and a target - or 'long-run' - reaction. The difference between these two is typically attributed to some form of adjustment cost. In this paper I argue that the small sample problems of cointegrating procedures used to estimate the ' long'-run component are particularly severe when adjustment costs are important.…

误差修正模型中协整系数最大似然估计量的若干精确分布理论AI 解读

The author derives some exact finite sample disbibutions and characterizes the tail behavior of maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating coefficients in error correction models. The reduced rank regression estimator has a distribution with Cauchy-like tails and no finite moments of integer order. The maximum likelihood estimator of the coefficients in a particular triangular system representation has matrix t-distribution tails with finite integer moments to order…

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双重单位根的半参数检验AI 解读

In this article, I argue that if an explosive root is considered a serious alternative to an I(2) process, then joint testing for the number of unit roots along the lines of Hasza and Fuller is preferable instead of prior differencing as suggested by Dickey and Pantula. A semiparametric equivalent of the Hasza-Fuller test that permits rather general assumptions about the innovation process is developed. The test is a straightforward generalization of the Phillips Z test for…

基于椭圆模型混合的单位根假说决策理论分析AI 解读

This paper develops a formal decision theoretic approach to testing for a unit root in economic time series. The approach is empirically implemented by specifying a loss function based on predictive variances; models are chosen so as to minimize expected loss. In addition, the paper broadens the class of likelihood functions traditionally considered in the Bayesian unit root literature. Empirical results indicate that, while the posterior probability of trend-stationarity is…

平稳与部分非平稳 VARMA 过程精确似然的快速算法AI 解读

An expression for the likelihood function of a stationary vector autoregressive-moving average process is developed. The expression is very efficient numerically and applies to any stationary but not necessarily invertible model. In particular, when the multivariate process is autoregressive, the exact likelihood can be evaluated with a small number of operations depending on the order of the autoregressive operator and the process dimension, but not on the size of the…

带确定性趋势的 ARIMA 模型中的若干单位根检验AI 解读

For a nonstationary time series we consider a model which can accommodate the possibility of deterministic and stochastic trends. Assuming that we are primarily interested in testing for the stochastic trend, that is, for a unit root in the time series, we employ the Lagrange multiplier principle and obtain test statistics. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are characterized by functionals of stochastic…

GARCH 模型的非平稳性：贝叶斯分析AI 解读

First, the non-stationarity properties of the conditional variances in the GARCH(1, 1) model are analysed using the concept of infinite persistence of shocks. Given a time sequence of probabilities for increasing/decreasing conditional variances, a theoretical formula for quasi-strict non-stationarity is defined. The resulting conditions for the GARCH(1,1) model are shown to differ from the weak stationarity conditions mainly used in the literature. Bayesian statistical…

向量自回归与因果性AI 解读

A limit theory for Wald tests of Granger causality in levels vector autoregressions (VAR's) and error correction models (ECM's) is developed, which allows for stochastic trends and cointegration. Earlier work is extended to the general case, thereby characterizing when these Wald tests are asymptotically valid as 'x'(superscript 2) criteria. Our results for inference from unrestricted levels VAR are not encouraging: the limit theory often involves nuisance parameters and…

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单位根对向量自回归的伪影响AI 解读

This paper analyzes whether inclusion of a statistically independent random walk in a vector autoregression can result in spurious inference. The problem was raised originally by Ohanian (1988). In a Monte Carlo simulation based on the VAR's estimated by Sims (1980, 1982), Ohanian found that ‘block exogeneity’ of the genuine variables with respect to an artificially generated random walk variable was rejected too often. In the present paper we attempt a full analytical study…

无限方差下的不可逆移动平均时间序列AI 解读

The limiting distribution of the least squares estimate of the derived process of a noninvertible and nearly noninvertible moving average model with infinite variance innovations is established as a functional of a Lévy process. The form of the limiting law depends on the initial value of the innovation and the stable index α. This result enables one to perform asymptotic testing for the presence of a unit root for a noninvertible moving average model through the constructed…

高阶单整系统中协整向量的简便估计量AI 解读

Efficient estimators of cointegrating vectors are presented for systems involving deterministic components and variables of differing, higher orders of integration. The estimators are computed using GLS or OLS, and Wald statistics constructed from these estimators have asymptotic x [superscript] 2 distributions. These and previously proposed estimators of cointegrating vectors are used to study long-run U.S. money (M1) demand. M1 demand is found to be stable over 1900-1989;…