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季节单位根检验中 t 与 F 统计量极限分布的近似AI 解读

Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, and Yoo (1990, Journal of Econometrics 44, 215–238), Beaulieu and Miron (1993, Journal of Econometrics 55, 305–328), Ghysels, Lee, and Noh (1994, Journal of Econometrics 62, 415–442), Smith and Taylor (1998, Journal of Econometrics 85, 269–288; 1999, Journal of Time Series Analysis 20, 453–476; 1999, Discussion paper 99-15 in economics, University of Birmingham), and Taylor (1998, Journal of Time Series Analysis 19, 349–368) have developed a method…

非线性协整的秩检验AI 解读

A test procedure based on ranks is suggested to test for nonlinear cointegration. For two (or more) time series it is assumed that monotonic transformations exist such that the normalized series can asymptotically be represented as Wiener processes. Rank-test procedures based on the difference between the sequences of ranks are suggested. If there is no cointegration between the time series, the sequences of ranks tend to diverge, whereas under cointegration the sequences of…

改进政策分析用VAR模型的联邦基金利率预测AI 解读

Federal-funds rate-forecast errors from vector autoregressive (VAR) models used for monetary policy analysis and fitted by ordinary least squares (OLS) are large relative to those from the futures market. Using three different structural VAR models, we show that forecasts based on a shrinkage estimator dominate the OLS-based forecasts--even after restricting the lag length and/or imposing exact unit-root restrictions--and are broadly comparable to the futures-market…

预测数据应聚合、合并，还是两者都不采用？AI 解读

It is well known that, even if all forecasters are rational, unbiasedness tests using consensus forecasts are inconsistent because forecasters have private information. However, if all forecasters face a common realization, pooled estimators are also inconsistent. In contrast, we show that when predictions and realizations are integrated and cointegrated, microhomogeneity ensures that consensus and pooled estimators are consistent. Therefore, contrary to claims in the…

高阶序列相关下基于回归的季节单位根检验性质AI 解读

We analyze the behavior of widely used regression-based tests for seasonal unit roots when the shocks are serially correlated. We show, in the quarterly case, that the common assumption that serial correlation may be accommodated by augmenting the test regression with appropriate lagged seasonal differences is only partially correct. The limiting null distributions of t statistics for unit roots at the zero and Nyquist frequencies are corrected by the lag augmentation, but…

趋势平稳的 GNP：新精确逐点最强不变单位根检验的证据AI 解读

Abstract There has been a substantial debate whether GNP has a unit root. However, statistical tests have had little success in distinguishing between unit‐root and trend‐reverting specifications because of poor statistical properties. This paper develops a new exact small‐sample, pointwise most powerful unit root test that is invariant to the unknown mean and scale of the time series tested, that generates exact small‐sample critical values, powers and p ‐values, that has…

异质面板中基于似然的协整检验AI 解读

This paper presents a maximum likelihood panel test of the cointegrating rank in heterogeneous panel models based on the mean of the individual rank trace statistics. The existence of the first two moments of the asymptotic distribution of the individual trace statistic is established. Based on this, the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is shown to be normal. The small-sample size and power properties are investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. An empirical…

使用广义极差统计量检验单位根假设AI 解读

The application of rescaled range statistics in econometrics is restricted to long memory detection in economic and financial time series. However, in this paper it is shown how such statistics can be generalized and used to test the unit root hypothesis. The proposed generalizations lead to testing procedures that are found to be consistent against I (0 , I (2 as well as against fractional integration and misspecification of the deterministic trend. A Monte Carlo simulation…

含协整与确定性趋势解释变量的非线性计量模型AI 解读

This paper develops an asymptotic theory for a general class of nonlinear non-stationary regressions, extending earlier work by Phillips and Hansen (1990) on linear coin-tegrating regressions.The model considered accommodates a linear time trend and stationary regressors, as well as multiple I(1) regressors. We establish consistency and derive the limit distribution of the nonlinear least squares estimator. The estimator is consistent under fairly general conditions but the…

时间聚合与协整系统中谱回归估计量的有限样本表现AI 解读

The finite sample performance of spectral regression estimators in temporally aggregated cointegrated systems is investigated via the use of simulation experiments. The simulations address issues such as “optimal” choice of bandwidth parameter and effects of smoothing kernel in constructing estimates of spectral densities that are used by the spectral regression estimators; the effects of stock and flow variables and mixtures of the two, including the relative finite sample…

长期中的产出与通货膨胀AI 解读

Abstract Cross‐country regressions explaining output growth often obtain a negative effect from inflation. However, that result is not robust, due to the selection of countries in sample, temporal aggregation, and omission of consequential variables in levels. This paper demonstrates some implications of these mis‐specifications, both analytically and empirically. In particular, for most G‐7 countries, annual time series of inflation and the log‐ level of output are…

I(1) 过程统计推断的有限样本改进AI 解读

Abstract Robinson and Marinucci ( 1998 ) investigated the asymptotic behaviour of a narrow‐band semiparametric procedure termed Frequency Domain Least Squares (FDLS) in the broad context of fractional cointegration analysis. Here we restrict discussion to the standard case when the data are I(1) and the cointegrating errors are I(0), proving that modifications of the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FM‐OLS) procedure of Phillips and Hansen ( 1990 ) which use the FDLS…

针对平滑随机趋势的检验AI 解读

Abstract A trend estimated from an unobserved components model tends to be smoother when it is modelled as an integrated random walk rather than a random walk with drift. This article derives a test of the null hypothesis that the trend is deterministic against the alternative that it is an integrated random walk. It is assumed that the other component in the model is normally distributed white noise. Critical values are tabulated, the asymptotic distribution is derived and…

冲击与脉冲响应函数的估计AI 解读

Abstract This paper examines the issue of how to identify the shocks in a cointegrated VAR when the following assumptions are made: the variables can be classified as endogenous or exogenous, there are as many cointegrating relations as endogenous variables, the cointegrating vectors are identified and they contain at least one exogenous variable. It is shown that with these assumptions it is possible to identify the shocks without the use of further restrictions on the…

水平关系分析的界限检验方法AI 解读

Abstract This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend‐ or first‐difference stationary. The proposed tests are based on standard F ‐ and t ‐statistics used to test the significance of the lagged levels of the variables in a univariate equilibrium correction mechanism. The asymptotic…

零常返时间序列中的非参数估计AI 解读

We develop a nonparametric estimation theory in a nonstationary environment, more precisely in the framework of null recurrent Markov chains. An essential tool is the split chain, which makes it possible to decompose the times series under consideration into independent and identical parts. A tail condition on the distribution of the recurrence time is introduced. This condition makes it possible to prove weak convergence results for sums of functions of the process…

以异方差季节单整为备择的季节单位根检验AI 解读

This article considers the problem of testing for a nonstochastic seasonal unit root in a seasonally observed time series process against the alternative of a randomized seasonal root with mean unity; that is, the process displays heteroscedastic seasonal integration. The alternative hypothesis allows for potentially frequently occurring changes of regime in the process under investigation, allowing for more volatile forms of seasonal nonstationarity. We discuss a family of…

协整与阈值调整AI 解读

This article proposes an extension to the Engle-Granger testing strategy by permitting asymmetry in the adjustment toward equilibrium in two different ways. We demonstrate that our test has good power and size properties over the Engle-Granger test when there are asymmetric departures from equilibrium. We consider an application--namely, whether there exists cointegration among interest rates for instruments with different maturities. This issue has been widely tested with…

含高阶多项式趋势的单位根季节自回归模型AI 解读

Seasonal autoregressive models with a polynomial trend of higher degee are treated. In the unit root case, the limiting distribution of the normalized least squares estimator for the autoregressive parameter and that of the corresponding t -statistic are discussed as the length of the sample period tends to infinity. In the case where the polynomial trend has the second or third degree, the joint moment generating functions associated with these limiting distributions are…

协整关系含非线性时间趋势的向量自回归模型：统计推断AI 解读

This paper continues the work of Saikkonen (2001, Econometric Theory 17, 296–326) and develops an asymptotic theory of statistical inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models with nonlinear time trends in cointegrating relations and general nonlinear parameter restrictions. Inference on parameters in cointegrating relations and short-run dynamics is studied separately. It is shown that Gaussian maximum likelihood estimators of parameters in cointegrating relations…

协整关系含非线性时间趋势的向量自回归模型：一致估计AI 解读

This paper studies the consistency of the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model with nonlinear time trends in cointegrating relations. The results are proved in a coordinate free framework that readily allows for general nonlinear parameter restrictions and makes it possible to show the consistency of reduced form parameter estimators without assuming identifiability of underlying structural parameters. Various consistency…

摘要暂缺

英国与日本消费和收入的季节分数阶单整检验AI 解读

Abstract The seasonal structure of quarterly UK and Japanese consumption and income is examined by means of fractionally based tests proposed by Robinson ( 1994 ). These series were analysed from an autoregressive unit root viewpoint by Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (HEGY, 1990 ) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Lee (HEGL, 1993 ). We find that seasonal fractional integration, with amplitudes possibly varying across frequencies, is an alternative plausible way of…

汇率存在长期可预测性吗？AI 解读

Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction equations. We show by means of a simulation study that, in small to medium samples, inference from this regression procedure depends on the null hypothesis that is used to generate empirical critical values. The standard assumption of a stationary error-correction term between exchange rates and fundamentals biases the results in favor of…