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精英幻象：波士顿与纽约考试选拔学校的学业效果AI 解读

Parents gauge school quality in part by the level of student achievement and a school's racial and socioeconomic mix. The importance of school characteristics in the housing market can be seen in the jump in house prices at school district boundaries where peer characteristics change. The question of whether schools with more attractive peers are really better in a value‐added sense remains open, however. This paper uses a fuzzy regression‐discontinuity design to evaluate…

企业联盟的绩效：来自墨西哥湾油气钻探的证据AI 解读

I use data on oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico to measure how a corporate alliance—a group of firms that jointly develops an offshore tract—performs relative to a solo firm. I employ a regression discontinuity strategy based on bids in first-price sealed-bid auctions for the rights to develop leases. By focusing on leases where one organizational form narrowly outbids the other, I measure drilling outcomes while controlling for the endogenous matching of projects…

密度不连续性的估计与推断AI 解读

Continuity or discontinuity of probability density functions of data often plays a fundamental role in empirical economic analysis. For example, for identification and inference of causal effects in regression discontinuity designs it is typically assumed that the density function of a conditioning variable is continuous at a cutoff point that determines assignment of a treatment. Also, discontinuity in density functions can be a parameter of economic interest, such as in…

失业救济期限、失业持续时间与工作匹配质量：断点回归方法AI 解读

SUMMARY We use a sharp discontinuity in the maximum duration of benefit entitlement to identify the effect of extended benefit duration on unemployment duration and post‐unemployment outcomes (employment stability and re‐employment wages). We address dynamic selection, which may arise even under an initially random assignment to treatment, estimating a bivariate discrete‐time hazard model jointly with a wage equation and correlated unobservables. Owing to the…

大学费用与学位完成时间：来自学费断点的证据AI 解读

University tuition typically remains constant throughout the years of enrollment while delayed degree completion is increasingly a problem for academic institutions around the world. Theory suggests that if continuation tuition were raised, the probability of late graduation would be reduced. Using a regression discontinuity design on data from Bocconi University in Italy, we show that a 1,000 euro increase in continuation tuition reduces the probability of late graduation…

We investigate the choice of the bandwidth for the regression discontinuity estimator. We focus on estimation by local linear regression, which was shown to have attractive properties (Porter, J. 2003, "Estimation in the Regression Discontinuity Model" (unpublished, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison)). We derive the asymptotically optimal bandwidth under squared error loss. This optimal bandwidth depends on unknown functionals of the distribution of…

断点回归设计中的分位数处理效应AI 解读

We introduce a nonparametric estimator for local quantile treatment effects in the regression discontinuity (RD) design. The procedure uses local distribution regression to estimate the marginal distributions of the potential outcomes. We illustrate the procedure through Monte Carlo simulations and an application on the distributional effects of a universal pre-K program in Oklahoma. We find that participation in a pre-K program significantly raises the lower end and the…

董事会结构对企业价值的影响：基于韩国数据的多重识别策略AI 解读

Outside directors and audit committees are widely considered to be central elements of good corporate governance. We use a 1999 Korean law as an exogenous shock to assess whether and how board structure affects firm market value. The law mandates 50% outside directors and an audit committee for large public firms, but not smaller firms. We study this shock using event study, difference-in-differences, and instrumental variable methods, within an overall regression…

全国学校午餐计划对儿童健康的影响：非参数界限分析AI 解读

Children in households reporting the receipt of free or reduced-price school meals through the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) are more likely to have negative health outcomes than observationally similar nonparticipants. Assessing causal effects of the program is made difficult, however, by missing counterfactuals and systematic underreporting of program participation. Combining survey data with auxiliary administrative information on the size of the NSLP caseload, we…

激励之外：学校是否有效使用问责奖励？AI 解读

We use a regression discontinuity design to analyze an understudied aspect of school accountability systems—how schools use financial rewards. For two years, California's accountability system financially rewarded schools based on a deterministic function of test scores. Qualifying schools received per-pupil awards amounting to about 1% of statewide per-pupil spending. Corroborating anecdotal evidence that awards were paid out as teacher bonuses, we find no evidence that…

帮助还是阻碍？大学补修教育对学业与劳动力市场结果的影响AI 解读

Providing remedial (also known as developmental) education is the primary way colleges cope with students who do not have the academic preparation needed to succeed in college-level courses. Remediation is widespread, with nearly one-third of entering freshmen taking remedial courses at an annual cost of at least $$1 billion. Despite its prevalence, there is uncertainty surrounding its short- and longer-run effects. This paper presents new evidence on this question using…

将断点回归推广至多个分配变量AI 解读

The recent scholarly attention to the regression-discontinuity design has focused exclusively on the application of a single assignment variable. In many settings, however, exogenously imposed cutoffs on several assignment variables define a set of different treatments. In this paper, we show how to generalize the standard regression-discontinuity approach to include multiple assignment variables simultaneously. We demonstrate that fitting this general, flexible…

普通教育与职业培训：转型经济体的证据AI 解读

This paper examines the relative benefits of general education and vocational training during Romania's transition to a market economy. We examine a 1973 educational reform that shifted a large proportion of students from vocational training to general education. Using census and household survey data, we analyze the effect of this policy with a regression discontinuity design. We find that men affected by the policy are significantly less likely to work in manual or…

秘鲁矿业米塔制度的持久影响AI 解读

This study utilizes regression discontinuity to examine the long-run impacts of the mita, an extensive forced mining labor system in effect in Peru and Bolivia between 1573 and 1812. Results indicate that a mita effect lowers household consumption by around 25% and increases the prevalence of stunted growth in children by around 6 percentage points in subjected districts today. Using data from the Spanish Empire and Peruvian Republic to trace channels of institutional…

融资如何影响投资？债务契约条款的作用AI 解读

ABSTRACT We identify a specific channel (debt covenants) and the corresponding mechanism (transfer of control rights) through which financing frictions impact corporate investment. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that capital investment declines sharply following a financial covenant violation, when creditors use the threat of accelerating the loan to intervene in management. Further, the reduction in investment is concentrated in situations in which agency…

银行分支设立放松管制的实际效应：美国跨州相邻县比较AI 解读

This paper proposes a new methodology to evaluate the economic effect of state-specific policy changes, using bank-branching deregulations in the US as an example. The new method compares economic performance of pairs of contiguous counties separated by state borders, where on one side restrictions on statewide branching were removed relatively earlier, to create a natural "regression discontinuity" setup. The study uses a total of 285 pairs of contiguous counties along 38…

回归不连续设计中运行变量操纵的密度检验AI 解读

Standard sufficient conditions for identification in the regression discontinuity design are continuity of the conditional expectation of counterfactual outcomes in the running variable. These continuity assumptions may not be plausible if agents are able to manipulate the running variable. This paper develops a test of manipulation related to continuity of the running variable density function. The methodology is applied to popular elections to the House of Representatives,…

存在设定误差时的回归不连续推断AI 解读

A regression discontinuity (RD) research design is appropriate for program evaluation problems in which treatment status (or the probability of treatment) depends on whether an observed covariate exceeds a fixed threshold. In many applications the treatment-determining covariate is discrete. This makes it impossible to compare outcomes for observations "just above" and "just below" the treatment threshold, and requires the researcher to choose a functional form for the…

摘要暂缺

美国众议院选举中非随机选择产生的局部随机实验AI 解读

This paper establishes the relatively weak conditions under which causal inferences from a regression-discontinuity (RD) analysis can be as credible as those from a randomized experiment, and hence under which the validity of the RD design can be tested by examining whether or not there is a discontinuity in any pre-determined (or “baseline”) variables at the RD threshold. Specifically, consider a standard treatment evaluation problem in which treatment is assigned to an…

回归不连续设计：实践指南AI 解读

In Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs for evaluating causal effects of interventions, assignment to a treatment is determined at least partly by the value of an observed covariate lying on either side of a fixed threshold. These designs were first introduced in the evaluation literature by Thistlewaite and Campbell (1960). With the exception of a few unpublished theoretical papers, these methods did not attract much attention in the economics literature until recently.…

补救教育与学生成绩：一项断点回归分析AI 解读

As standards and accountability have become increasingly prominent features of the educational landscape, educators have relied more on remedial programs such as summer school and grade retention to help low-achieving students meet minimum academic standards. Yet the evidence on the effectiveness of such programs is mixed, and prior research suffers from selection bias. However, recent school reform efforts in Chicago provide an opportunity to examine the causal impact of…

回归不连续设计下处理效应的识别与估计AI 解读

Ž. THE REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY RD data design is a quasi-experimental design with the defining characteristic that the probability of receiving treatment changes discontinuously as a function of one or more underlying variables. This data design arises frequently in economic and other applications but is only infrequently exploited as a source of identifying information in evaluating effects of a treatment. In the first application and discussion of the RD method,…

用广义断点回归设计评估加利福尼亚州囚犯分类系统AI 解读

Published studies using the regression discontinuity design have been limited to cases in which linear regression is applied to a categorical treatment indicator and an equal interval outcome. This is unnecessarily narrow. We show here how a generalization the usual regression discontinuity design can be applied in a wider range of situations. We focus on the use of categorical treatment and response variables, but we also consider the more general case of any regression…