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未知阈值的回归折点模型AI 解读

This article explores estimation and inference in a regression kink model with an unknown threshold. A regression kink model (or continuous threshold model) is a threshold regression constrained to be everywhere continuous with a kink at an unknown threshold. We present methods for estimation, to test for the presence of the threshold, for inference on the regression parameters, and for inference on the regression function. A novel finding is that inference on the regression…

信贷可得性与大学入学AI 解读

Does access to credit explain the gap in schooling attainment between children from richer and poorer families? I present new evidence on this important question based on the causal effects of two college loan programs in Chile that are available to students scoring above a threshold on the national college admission test, enabling a regression discontinuity design. I find that credit access leads to a 100 percent increase in immediate college enrollment and a 50 percent…

主观幸福感与收入：用未知阈值回归折点模型重新检验饱和点AI 解读

Summary A methodological challenge in testing Easterlin's paradox, which states that increasing income fails to boost happiness beyond a satiation point, lies in the determination of this threshold if it exists. In the existing literature, various levels of GDP per capita have been chosen based upon visual inspection of the scatter plots of the data. The estimated income–well‐being gradients are sensitive to the choice of such kink points. We first replicate the results in…

企业声望对高管薪酬的影响AI 解读

We show that chief executive officers (CEOs) of prestigious firms earn less. Total compensation is on average 8% lower for firms listed in Fortune’s ranking of America’s most admired companies. We suggest that CEOs are willing to trade off status and career benefits from working for a publicly admired company against additional monetary compensation. Our identification strategy is based on matched sample analyses, difference-in-differences regressions, and a regression…

债权人权利是否增加就业风险？来自贷款契约的证据AI 解读

ABSTRACT Using a regression discontinuity design, we provide evidence that there are sharp and substantial employment cuts following loan covenant violations, when creditors gain rights to accelerate, restructure, or terminate a loan. The cuts are larger at firms with higher financing frictions and with weaker employee bargaining power, and during industry and macroeconomic downturns, when employees have fewer job opportunities. Union elections that create new labor…

残障补助对家庭劳动收入与总收入的影响：儿童SSI项目证据AI 解读

I estimate the effect of removing children with disabilities from Supplemental Security Income (SSI) on parental earnings and household disability receipt. Using administrative data from the Social Security Administration (SSA), I implement regression discontinuity and differencein- differences designs based on changes in SSA's budget for child medical reviews. I find that parents fully offset the SSI loss with increased earnings, and the loss of the child's SSI payment…

断点回归的分布检验：理论与实证示例AI 解读

This paper proposes consistent testing methods for examining the effect of a policy treatment on the whole distribution of a response outcome within the setting of a regression discontinuity design. These methods are particularly useful when a policy is expected to produce treatment effects that are heterogeneous along some unobserved characteristics. The test statistics are Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type and are asymptotically distribution free when the data are i.i.d. The…

贝叶斯模糊断点回归分析与义务教育回报AI 解读

Summary This paper is concerned with the use of a Bayesian approach to fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) designs for understanding the returns to education. The discussion is motivated by the change in government policy in the UK in April of 1947, when the minimum school leaving age was raised from 14 to 15—a change that had a discontinuous impact on the probability of leaving school at age 14 for cohorts who turned 14 around the time of the policy change. We develop a…

使用回归不连续设计评估GED证书的劳动力市场回报AI 解读

We evaluate returns to General Educational Development (GED) certification for high school dropouts using state administrative data. We apply a fuzzy regression discontinuity method to account for test takers retaking the test. For women we find that GED certification has no statistically significant effect on either employment or earnings. For men we find a significant increase in earnings in the second year after taking the test but no impact in subsequent years. GED…

良好信用声誉的价值：来自信用卡债务重谈的证据AI 解读

I exploit a natural experiment to estimate borrowers’ willingness to pay for a good credit reputation. A lender in Chile offered lower installments to borrowers who were in default. Those who owed more than a fixed arbitrary cutoff were additionally offered a clean public repayment record. Using the cutoff in a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, I show that borrowers are willing to pay the equivalent of 11% of their monthly income for a good reputation. Borrowers use…

In fuzzy regression discontinuity (FRD) designs, the treatment effect is identified through a discontinuity in the conditional probability of treatment assignment. We show that when identification is weak (i.e., when the discontinuity is of a small magnitude), the usual t-test based on the FRD estimator and its standard error suffers from asymptotic size distortions as in a standard instrumental variables setting. This problem can be especially severe in the FRD setting…

股票回购的实体经济效应AI 解读

We employ a regression discontinuity design to identify the real effects of share repurchases on other firm outcomes. The probability of share repurchases that increase earnings per share (EPS) is sharply higher for firms that would have just missed the EPS forecast in the absence of the repurchase, when compared with firms that “just beat” the EPS forecast. We use this discontinuity to show that EPS-motivated repurchases are associated with reductions in employment and…

夜幕掩护之下：环境光照如何影响犯罪活动AI 解读

Abstract We exploit daylight saving time (DST) as an exogenous shock to daylight, using both the discontinuous nature of the policy and the 2007 extension of DST, to consider the impact of light on criminal activity. Regression discontinuity estimates show a 7% decrease in robberies following the shift to DST. As expected, effects are largest during the hours directly affected by the shift in daylight. We discuss our findings within the context of criminal decision making…

识别断点回归模型中改变政策门槛的效应AI 解读

Regression discontinuity models are commonly used to nonparametrically identify and estimate a local average treatment effect (LATE).We show that the derivative of the treatment effect with respect to the running variable at the cutoff, referred to as the treatment effect derivative (TED), is nonparametrically identified, easily estimated, and has implications for testing external validity and extrapolating the estimated LATE away from the cutoff. Given a local policy…

航空业进入壁垒：AIR-21 法案的多维断点回归分析AI 解读

We investigate the success of legislation aimed at increasing competition at highly concentrated U.S. airports, mainly by forcing these airports to increase the availability of scarce facilities. We use a multidimensional regression-discontinuity approach to exploit a sharp discontinuity in the law’s implementation and identify its effects. We find that fares decrease by 13.4% (20.2%) in markets with one (both) end point(s) covered. Approximately half of the decline is…

断点未知的断点回归设计：检验与估计AI 解读

The regression discontinuity design has become a common framework among applied economists for measuring treatment effects. A key restriction of the existing literature is the assumption that the discontinuity point is known, which does not always hold in practice. This paper extends the applicability of the regression discontinuity design by allowing for an unknown discontinuity point. First, we construct a unified test statistic to check whether there are selection or…

远离断点的考试选拔学校效应：回归不连续识别与估计AI 解读

In regression discontinuity (RD) studies exploiting an award or admissions cutoff, causal effects are nonparametrically identified for those near the cutoff. The effect of treatment on inframarginal applicants is also of interest, but identification of such effects requires stronger assumptions than those required for identification at the cutoff. This article discusses RD identification and estimation away from the cutoff. Our identification strategy exploits the…

最优数据驱动的回归不连续图AI 解读

Exploratory data analysis plays a central role in applied statistics and econometrics. In the popular regression-discontinuity (RD) design, the use of graphical analysis has been strongly advocated because it provides both easy presentation and transparent validation of the design. RD plots are nowadays widely used in applications, despite its formal properties being unknown: these plots are typically presented employing ad hoc choices of tuning parameters, which makes these…

回归函数单点的自适应检验AI 解读

We consider the problem of inference on a regression function at a point when the entire function satisfies a sign or shape restriction under the null. We propose a test that achieves the optimal minimax rate adaptively over a range of Hölder classes, up to a $\log\log n$ term, which we show to be necessary for adaptation. We apply the results to adaptive one-sided tests for the regression discontinuity parameter under a monotonicity restriction, the value of a monotone…

回归不连续设计的经验似然推断AI 解读

This paper proposes empirical likelihood based inference methods for causal effects identified from regression discontinuity designs. We consider both the sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs and treat the regression functions as nonparametric. The proposed inference procedures do not require asymptotic variance estimation and the confidence sets have natural shapes, unlike the conventional Wald-type method. These features are illustrated by simulations and an…

次贷危机应归咎于政府住房政策吗？AI 解读

Some have suggested that housing policy, embodied by the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and affordable housing goals of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), caused the subprime crisis. We examine if these programs led to worse mortgage outcomes using two approaches. The first examines whether more activity by CRA-covered lenders, or more loan sales to the GSEs, was associated with worse outcomes. The second uses regression discontinuity to determine if outcomes…

Summary Many empirical applications of regression discontinuity (RD) models use a running variable that is rounded and hence discrete, e.g. age in years, or birth weight in ounces. This paper shows that standard RD estimation using a rounded discrete running variable leads to inconsistent estimates of treatment effects, even when the true functional form relating the outcome and the running variable is known and is correctly specified. This paper provides simple formulas to…

广义回归折点设计中的因果效应推断AI 解读

A.1. Proofs of Propositions 1 and 2IN ORDER TO PROVE PROPOSITION 1, we first present and prove the following lemmas.LEMMA 1: Let ϕ(x t) : I × [c d] → R, where I is a compact subset of R m .Suppose ϕ(x t) and its partial derivative, ϕ 2 (x t), are continuous and that ϕ is integrable with respect to the probability measure α for each t.Then f (t) = ϕ(x t) dα(x) is continuously differentiable on [c d].PROOF: By Theorem 5 (p.97) of Roussas (2004), f (t) = ϕ 2 (x t) dα(x) for all…

断点回归设计的稳健非参数置信区间AI 解读

In the regression-discontinuity (RD) design, units are assigned to treatment based on whether their value of an observed covariate exceeds a known cutoff. In this design, local polynomial estimators are now routinely employed to construct confidence intervals for treatment effects. The performance of these confidence intervals in applications, however, may be seriously hampered by their sensitivity to the specific bandwidth employed. Available bandwidth selectors typically…