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民主确实促进增长AI 解读

We provide evidence that democracy has a positive effect on GDP per capita. Our dynamic panel strategy controls for country fixed effects and the rich dynamics of GDP, which otherwise confound the effect of democracy. To reduce measurement error, we introduce a new indicator of democracy that consolidates previous measures. Our baseline results show that democratizations increase GDP per capita by about 20 percent in the long run. We find similar effects using a propensity…

长程依赖下的面板数据模型系统估计AI 解读

A general dynamic panel data model is considered that incorporates individual and interactive fixed effects allowing for contemporaneous correlation in model innovations. The model accommodates general stationary or nonstationary long-range dependence through interactive fixed effects and innovations, removing the necessity to perform a priori unit-root or stationarity testing. Moreover, persistence in innovations and interactive fixed effects allows for cointegration;…

引入协变量的最优面板单位根检验AI 解读

Summary This paper provides asymptotic optimality results for panel unit root tests with covariates by deriving the Gaussian power envelope. The main conclusion is that the use of covariates holds considerable promise in the panel data context, much more so than in the time series context. In fact, the use of the covariates not only leads to increased power, but can actually have an order effect on the shrinking neighbourhoods around unity for which power is non-negligible.

系统重要性金融机构的尾部事件驱动网络AI 解读

The interdependence, dynamics and riskiness of financial institutions are the key features frequently tackled in financial econometrics. We propose a Tail Event driven Network Quantile Regression (TENQR) model which addresses these three aspects. More precisely, our framework captures the risk propagation and dynamics in terms of a panel quantile autoregression involving network effects that are quantified through a time-varying adjacency matrix. To reflect the risk content…

带状时空自回归模型AI 解读

We propose a new class of spatio-temporal models with unknown and banded autoregressive coefficient matrices. The setting represents a sparse structure for high-dimensional spatial panel dynamic models when panel members represent economic (or other type) individuals at many different locations. The structure is practically meaningful when the order of panel members is arranged appropriately. Note that the implied autocovariance matrices are unlikely to be banded, and…

利用簇随机化估计簇内溢出效应：印度农村知识扩散应用AI 解读

Summary Spillover effects within randomized clusters pose a challenge for identifying impacts of an individualized treatment. The paper proposes a solution. Longitudinal and intra‐household observations are combined in estimating the direct knowledge gain from watching an info‐movie in rural India, while randomized village assignment identifies knowledge sharing. Simulations on synthetic data and econometric tests provide support for the estimation method. We find evidence…

存在溢出时的研发私人回报：再考察AI 解读

Summary This is both a replication of Eberhardt et al. ( Review of Economics and Statistics , 2013, 95 (2), 436–448) using different software, and a critical extension and diagnostic reassessment of the original results. The main findings of the paper are confirmed and sometimes reinforced. We point out some inconsistencies, in particular in the calculation of standard errors for the common correlated effects pooled model; we extend the diagnostic checks; lastly, in the…

马尔可夫切换广义自回归得分 Copula 模型及其系统性风险应用AI 解读

Summary Recent financial disasters have emphasized the need to accurately predict extreme financial losses and their consequences for the institutions belonging to a given financial market. The ability of econometric models to predict extreme events strongly relies on their flexibility to account for the highly nonlinear and asymmetric dependence patterns observed in financial time series. In this paper, we develop a new class of flexible copula models where the dependence…

动态二元选择面板模型中的排除限制：评《无严格外生回归变量的半参数二元选择面板模型》AI 解读

In this note we revisit the use of exclusion restrictions in the semiparametric binary choice panel data model introduced in Honore and Lewbel (2002). We show that in a dynamic panel data setting (where one of the pre-determined explanatory variables is the lagged dependent variable), the exclusion restriction in Honore and Lewbel (2002) implicitly re- quires serial independence condition on an observed regressor, that if violated in the data will result in their procedure…

网络数据的固定效应回归AI 解读

This paper considers inference on fixed effects in a linear regression model estimated from network data. An important special case of our setup is the two‐way regression model. This is a workhorse technique in the analysis of matched data sets, such as employer–employee or student–teacher panel data. We formalize how the structure of the network affects the accuracy with which the fixed effects can be estimated. This allows us to derive sufficient conditions on the network…

分组因子模型的推断及其混频数据应用AI 解读

We derive asymptotic properties of estimators and test statistics to determine—in a grouped data setting—common versus group‐specific factors. Despite the fact that our test statistic for the number of common factors, under the null, involves a parameter at the boundary (related to unit canonical correlations), we derive a parameter‐free asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how the group factor setting applies to mixed‐frequency data. As an empirical illustration, we…

雇主—雇员匹配数据的分布分析框架AI 解读

We propose a framework to identify and estimate earnings distributions and worker composition on matched panel data, allowing for two‐sided worker‐firm unobserved heterogeneity and complementarities in earnings. We introduce two models: a static model that allows for nonlinear interactions between workers and firms, and a dynamic model that allows, in addition, for Markovian earnings dynamics and endogenous mobility. We show that this framework nests a number of structural…

面板双重差分模型中的分位数处理效应AI 解读

This paper considers identification and estimation of the Quantile Treatment Effect on the Treated (QTT) under a straightforward distributional extension of the most commonly invoked Mean Difference in Differences Assumption used for identifying the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). Identification of the QTT is more complicated than the ATT though because it depends on the unknown dependence (or copula) between the change in untreated potential outcomes and the…

收入动态中经典永久—暂时模型的半参数估计AI 解读

This paper presents identification and estimation results for a flexible state space model. Our modification of the canonical model allows the permanent component to follow a unit root process and the transitory component to follow a semiparametric model of a higher‐order autoregressive‐moving‐average (ARMA) process. Using panel data of observed earnings, we establish identification of the nonparametric joint distributions for each of the permanent and transitory components…

多处理协变量自适应随机化下的推断AI 解读

This paper studies inference in randomized controlled trials with covariate‐adaptive randomization when there are multiple treatments. More specifically, we study in this setting inference about the average effect of one or more treatments relative to other treatments or a control. As in Bugni, Canay, and Shaikh (2018), covariate‐adaptive randomization refers to randomization schemes that first stratify according to baseline covariates and then assign treatment status so as…

异质与随机收入剖面及经验收入过程的稳健性AI 解读

The dispersion of individual returns to experience, often referred to as heterogeneity of income profiles (HIP), is a key parameter in empirical human capital models, in studies of life‐cycle income inequality, and in heterogeneous agent models of life‐cycle labor market dynamics. It is commonly estimated from age variation in the covariance structure of earnings. In this study, I show that this approach is invalid and tends to deliver estimates of HIP that are biased…

大横截面中的跳跃因子模型AI 解读

We develop tests for deciding whether a large cross‐section of asset prices obey an exact factor structure at the times of factor jumps. Such jump dependence is implied by standard linear factor models. Our inference is based on a panel of asset returns with asymptotically increasing cross‐sectional dimension and sampling frequency, and essentially no restriction on the relative magnitude of these two dimensions of the panel. The test is formed from the high‐frequency…

黎曼流形与球面上函数型数据的主成分分析AI 解读

Functional data analysis on nonlinear manifolds has drawn recent interest. Sphere-valued functional data, which are encountered, for example, as movement trajectories on the surface of the earth are an important special case. We consider an intrinsic principal component analysis for smooth Riemannian manifold-valued functional data and study its asymptotic properties. Riemannian functional principal component analysis (RFPCA) is carried out by first mapping the…

ArCo：高维面板时间序列的人工反事实方法AI 解读

We consider a new, flexible and easy-to-implement method to estimate thecausal effects of an intervention on a single treated unit when a control group is not available and which nests previous proposals in the literature. It is a two-step methodology where in the first stage, a counterfactual is estimated based on a large-dimensional set of variables from a pool of untreated units by means of shrinkage methods, such as the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator…

工作中的机器人AI 解读

We analyze for the first time the economic contributions of modern industrial robots, which are flexible, versatile, and autonomous machines. We use novel panel data on robot adoption within industries in seventeen countries from 1993 to 2007 and new instrumental variables that rely on robots’ comparative advantage in specific tasks. Our findings suggest that increased robot use contributed approximately 0.36 percentage points to annual labor productivity growth, while at…

面板动态联立方程模型的刀切工具变量估计AI 解读

We consider the method of moments estimation of a structural equation in a panel dynamic simultaneous equations model under different sample size combinations of cross-sectional dimension, N , and time series dimension, T . Two types of linear transformation to remove the individual-specific effects from the model, first difference and forward orthogonal demeaning, are considered. We show that the Alvarez and Arellano (2003) type GMM estimator under both transformations is…

动态面板推断中的附带参数、初始条件与样本规模AI 解读

We use a quasi-likelihood function approach to clarify the role of initial values and the relative sample size of the cross-section dimension N and the time series dimension T on the asymptotic properties of estimators for dynamic panel data models with the presence of individual-specific effects. We show that a properly specified quasi-likelihood estimator (QMLE) that uses the Mundlak–Chamberlain approach to condition the unobserved effects and initial values on the…

误差分布未知时反卷积的一致置信带AI 解读

This paper develops a method to construct uniform confidence bands in deconvolution when the error distribution is unknown. Simulation studies demonstrate the performance of the multiplier bootstrap confidence band in the finite sample. We apply our method to the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Auction Data and draw confidence bands for the density of common values of mineral rights on oil and gas tracts. We also present an application of our main theoretical result…

估计教育回报时固定效应与时间趋势有多重要？一项复现研究AI 解读

Summary A substantial and rapidly growing literature has developed around estimating earnings gains from 2‐year college degrees using administrative data. These papers almost universally employ a person‐level fixed‐effects strategy to estimate earnings premia net of fixed attributes. We note that the seminal piece on which these papers build—Jacobson, Lalonde, & Sullivan, Journal of Econometrics , 2005, 125 (1–2), 271–304—provides theoretical and empirical evidence for the…