论文检索

用马尔可夫转换模型与工具变量检验远期汇率无偏假说AI 解读

Abstract This paper develops a model for the forward and spot exchange rate which allows for the presence of a Markov switching risk premium in the forward market and considers the issue of testing the unbiased forward exchange rate (UFER) hypothesis. Using US/UK data, it is shown that the UFER hypothesis cannot be rejected, provided that instrumental variables are used to account for within‐regime correlation between explanatory variables and disturbances in the Markov…

摘要暂缺

In this paper we measure the effect of Catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores. Because we do not have a good instrumental variable for Catholic school attendance, we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables. We also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the…

均值回归测量误差对工资与就业纵向研究的影响AI 解读

This note examines the implications of mean-reverting mea-surement error for two influential literatures based on longitudinal survey data: (1) the literature on real wage variation over the business cycle and (2) the literature on intertemporal substitution in labor supply. Accounting for mean-reverting measurement error suggests that real wages may be even more procyclical than indicated by recent longitudinal studies. We also find that the instrumental variables estimator…

创造还是摧毁就业？沃尔玛扩张的劳动力市场效应AI 解读

This paper estimates the effect of Wal-Mart expansion on retail employment at the county level. Using an instrumental variables approach to correct for both measurement error in entry dates and endogeneity of the timing of entry, I find that Wal-Mart entry increases retail employment by 100 jobs in the year of entry. Half of this gain disappears over the next five years as other retail establishments exit and contract, leaving a long-run statistically significant net gain of…

贸易有益还是有害于环境？厘清因果关系AI 解读

We seek to contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking: What is the effect of trade on a country's environment, for a given level of GDP? We take specific account of the endogeneity of trade, using exogenous geographic determinants of trade as instrumental variables. We find that trade tends to reduce three measures of air pollution. Statistical significance is high for concentrations of SO2, moderate for NO2, and lacking for particulate matter.…

分位数处理效应的工具变量模型AI 解读

The ability of quantile regression models to characterize the heterogeneous impact of variables on different points of an outcome distribution makes them appealing in many economic applications. However, in observational studies, the variables of interest (e.g., education, prices) are often endogenous, making conventional quantile regression inconsistent and hence inappropriate for recovering the causal effects of these variables on the quantiles of economic outcomes. In…

可贸易品与非贸易品购买力平价的收敛速度AI 解读

This article estimates the speed of the adjustment coefficient in structural error-correction models. We use a system method for real exchange rates of traded and nontraded goods by combining a single-equation method with Hansen and Sargent's instrumental variables methods for linear rational expectations models. We apply these methods to a modified version of Mussa's model. Our results show that the half-lives of purchasing power parity deviations for the rates of traded…

广义可加波动模型的 LIVE 方法AI 解读

We investigate a new separable nonparametric model for time series, which includes many autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) models and autoregressive (AR) models already discussed in the literature. We also propose a new estimation procedure called LIVE, or local instrumental variable estimation, that is based on a localization of the classical instrumental variable method. Our method has considerable computational advantages over the competing marginal…

门限模型的工具变量估计AI 解读

Threshold models (sample splitting models) have wide application in economics. Existing estimation methods are confined to regression models, which require that all right-hand-side variables are exogenous. This paper considers a model with endogenous variables but an exogenous threshold variable. We develop a two-stage least squares estimator of the threshold parameter and a generalized method of moments estimator of the slope parameters. We show that these estimators are…

We consider regression when the predictor is measured with error and an instrumental variable (IV) is available. The regression function can be modeled linearly, nonlinearly, or nonparametrically. Our major new result shows that the regression function and all parameters in the measurement error model are identified under relatively weak conditions, much weaker than previously known to imply identifiability. In addition, we exploit a characterization of the IV estimator as a…

Determining the impact of poverty on the likelihood of civil conflict in less developed countries is difficult because of omitted variable bias and endogeneity. We use exogenous weather variation -- as measured in satellite vegetation readings -- as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries during 1983-1999, and estimate that economic growth is strongly negatively related to the incidence of civil conflict: a negative growth shock of 5…

弱工具变量下跨期替代弹性的估计AI 解读

In the instrumental variables (IV) regression model, weak instruments can lead to bias in estimators and size distortion in hypothesis tests. This paper examines how weak instruments affect the identification of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) through the linearized Euler equation. Conventional IV methods result in an empirical puzzle that the EIS is significantly less than 1 but its reciprocal is not different from 1. This paper shows that weak…

估计高等教育的社会回报：来自纵向与重复横截面数据的证据AI 解读

Economists have speculated for at least a century that the social return to education may exceed the private return. In this paper, I estimate spillovers from college education by comparing wages for otherwise similar individuals who work in cities with different shares of college graduates in the labor force. OLS estimates show a large positive relationship between the share of college graduates in a city and individual wages, over and above the private return to education.…

弱工具变量下的估计：高阶偏误与均方误差近似的准确性AI 解读

In this paper, we consider parameter estimation in a linear simultaneous equations model. It is well known that two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimators may perform poorly when the instruments are weak. In this case 2SLS tends to suffer from the substantial small sample biases. It is also known that LIML and Nagar-type estimators are less biased than 2SLS but suffer from large small sample variability. We construct a bias-corrected version of 2SLS based on the Jackknife…

用主分层评估部分受控的纵向处理：针具交换项目应用AI 解读

We consider studies for evaluating the short-term effect of a treatment of interest on a time-to-event outcome. The studies we consider are only partially controlled in the following sense: (1) Subjects' exposure to the treatment of interest can vary over time, but this exposure is not directly controlled by the study; (2) subjects' follow-up time is not directly controlled by the study; and (3) the study directly controls another factor that can affect subjects' exposure to…

蒽环类药物治疗后 ACE 抑制剂试验中不完全依从下的随机化推断AI 解读

Anthracyclines are quite effective at curing certain cancers of childhood, but they may damage the heart. The ACE-Inhibitor After Anthracycline (AAA) study compared enalapril to placebo in a randomized trial in an effort to determine whether treatment with enalapril would preserve or improve cardiac function among children previously treated with anthracylines. As is true in many clinical trials, patient compliance with the study protocol was imperfect; some children took…

This paper investigates a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach to the estimation of autoregressive roots near unity with panel data and incidental deterministic trends. Such models arise in empirical econometric studies of firm size and in dynamic panel data modeling with weak instruments. The two moment conditions in the GMM approach are obtained by constructing bias corrections to the score functions under OLS and GLS detrending, respectively. It is shown that the…

利用教育回报估计教育借贷约束AI 解读

This paper measures the importance of borrowing constraints on education decisions. Empirical identification of borrowing constraints is secured by the economic prediction that opportunity costs and direct costs of schooling affect borrowing-constrained and unconstrained persons differently. Direct costs need to be financed during school and impose a larger burden on credit-constrained students. By contrast, gross forgone earnings do not have to be financed. We explore the…

工具变量回归中结构参数子集的检验AI 解读

We develop Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio statistics to test hypotheses on subsets of the structural parameters in an instrumental variables regression model. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics are robust to instrument quality. A key assumption is, however, that the instruments are valid for the remaining endogenous variables. We show that the statistics lead to 95% confidence sets for the return on education in data from Card (1995) that are…

使用匹配、工具变量与控制函数估计经济选择模型AI 解读

This paper investigates four topics. (1) It examines the different roles played by the propensity score (the probability of selection into treatment) in matching, instrumental variable, and control function methods. (2) It contrasts the roles of exclusion restrictions in matching and selection models. (3) It characterizes the sensitivity of matching to the choice of conditioning variables and demonstrates the greater robustness of control function methods to misspecification…

04.1.1 基于固定效应与误差成分两阶段最小二乘差异的 Hausman 检验AI 解读

A Hausman test based on the difference between fixed effects two-stage least squares and error components two-stage least squares.

摘要暂缺

多工具变量下的随机效应估计量AI 解读

In this paper we propose a new estimator for a model with one endogenous regressor and many instrumental variables. Our motivation comes from the recent literature on the poor properties of standard instrumental variables estimators when the instrumental variables are weakly correlated with the endogenous regressor. Our proposed estimator puts a random coefficients structure on the relation between the endogenous regressor and the instruments. The variance of the random…