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二元结果的工具变量随机系数模型AI 解读

In this paper, we study a random‐coefficients model for a binary outcome. We allow for the possibility that some or even all of the explanatory variables are arbitrarily correlated with the random coefficients, thus permitting endogeneity. We assume the existence of observed instrumental variables Z that are jointly independent with the random coefficients, although we place no structure on the joint determination of the endogenous variable X and instruments Z, as would be…

自适应非参数工具变量估计：正则化参数的经验选择AI 解读

In nonparametric instrumental variables estimation, the mapping that identifies the function of interest, g, is discontinuous and must be regularized to permit consistent estimation. The optimal regularization parameter depends on population characteristics that are unknown in applications. This paper presents a theoretically justified empirical method for choosing the regularization parameter in series estimation. The method adapts to the unknown smoothness of g and other…

SUMMARY This paper builds on the methods of local instrumental variables developed by Heckman and Vytlacil (1999, 2001, 2005) to estimate person‐centered treatment (PeT) effects that are conditioned on the person's observed characteristics and averaged over the potential conditional distribution of unobserved characteristics that lead them to their observed treatment choices. PeT effects are more individualized than conditional treatment effects from a randomized setting…

企业为何逃税？信息共享与金融服务覆盖的作用AI 解读

ABSTRACT Tax evasion is a widespread phenomenon across the globe and even an important factor in the ongoing sovereign debt crisis. We show that firms in countries with better credit information–sharing systems and higher branch penetration evade taxes to a lesser degree. This effect is stronger for smaller firms, firms in smaller cities and towns, firms in industries relying more on external financing, and firms in industries and countries with greater growth potential.…

可能识别失效下的 GMM 估计与一致有效的子向量推断AI 解读

This paper determines the properties of standard generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators, tests, and confidence sets (CSs) in moment condition models in which some parameters are unidentified or weakly identified in part of the parameter space. The asymptotic distributions of GMM estimators are established under a full range of drifting sequences of true parameters and distributions. The asymptotic sizes (in a uniform sense) of standard GMM tests and CSs are…

内生解释变量模型中基于两阶段最小二乘的多重结构变化估计与检验：一个注记AI 解读

This note provides a simple proof for the problem of estimating and testing for multiple breaks in a single equation framework with regressors that are endogenous. We show based on standard assumptions about the regressors, instruments, and errors that the second-stage regression of the instrumental variable procedure involves regressors and errors that satisfy all the assumptions in Perron and Qu (2006, Journal of Econometrics 134, 373–399) so that the results about…

SUMMARY crs is a library for R written by Jeffrey S. Racine (Maintainer) and Zhenghua Nie. This add‐on package provides a collection of functions for spline‐based nonparametric estimation of regression functions with both continuous and categorical regressors. Currently, the crs package integrates data‐driven methods for selecting the spline degree, the number of knots and the necessary bandwidths for nonparametric conditional mean, IV and quantile regression. A function for…

协变量测量误差下的处理效应估计AI 解读

This paper investigates the effect that covariate measurement error has on a treatment effect analysis built on an unconfoundedness restriction in which there is conditioning on error free covariates. The approach uses small parameter asymptotic methods to obtain the approximate effects of measurement error for estimators of average treatment effects. The approximations can be estimated using data on observed outcomes, the treatment indicator and error contaminated…

含测量误差时间序列的持续性与自相关函数估计AI 解读

An economic time series can often be viewed as a noisy proxy for an underlying economic variable. Measurement errors will influence the dynamic properties of the observed process and may conceal the persistence of the underlying time series. In this paper we develop instrumental variable (IV) methods for extracting information about the latent process. Our framework can be used to estimate the autocorrelation function of the latent volatility process and a key persistence…

线性结构模型中内生性参数的识别稳健推断AI 解读

We provide a generalization of the Anderson–Rubin (AR) procedure for inference on parameters that represent the dependence between possibly endogenous explanatory variables and disturbances in a linear structural equation (endogeneity parameters). We stress the distinction between regression and covariance endogeneity parameters. Such parameters have intrinsic interest (because they measure the effect of latent variables, which induce simultaneity) and play a central role in…

利用无关工具变量最优估计协整系统AI 解读

It has been known since Phillips and Hansen (1990) that cointegrated systems can be consistently estimated using stochastic trend instruments that are independent of the system variables. A similar phenomenon occurs with deterministically trending instruments. The present work shows that such “irrelevant” deterministic trend instruments may be systematically used to produce asymptotically efficient estimates of a cointegrated system. The approach is convenient in practice,…

GMM 估计中误设稳健自助法的渐近精化AI 解读

I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals based on GMM estimators even when the model is misspecified. In addition, my bootstrap does not require recentering the moment function, which has been considered as critical for GMM. Regardless of model misspecification, the proposed bootstrap achieves the same sharp magnitude of refinements as the conventional bootstrap methods which establish asymptotic…

反事实均值的非参数推断：偏差修正、置信集与弱工具变量AI 解读

This paper supplements Manski (1990) and Manski and Pepper (2000) and contributes to the literature by introducing the concept of weak IV for the partially identified mean counterfactual outcomes when an instrumental variable (IV) or a monotone instrumental variable (MIV) is available (IV or MIV assumption respectively); developing asymptotically uniformly valid confidence sets for the counterfactual mean outcomes and average treatment effects under the assumptions;…

SUMMARY We provide the first empirical application of a new approach proposed by Lee ( Journal of Econometrics 2007; 140 (2), 333–374) to estimate peer effects in a linear‐in‐means model when individuals interact in groups. Assumingsufficient group size variation, this approach allows to control for correlated effects at the group level and to solve the simultaneity (reflection) problem. We clarify the intuition behind identification of peer effects in the model. We…

利用市场层面数据识别差异化产品市场模型AI 解读

We present new identification results for nonparametric models of differentiated products markets, using only market level observables. We specify a nonparametric random utility discrete choice model of demand allowing rich preference heterogeneity, product/market unobservables, and endogenous prices. Our supply model posits nonparametric cost functions, allows latent cost shocks, and nests a range of standard oligopoly models. We consider identification of demand,…

非参数与半参数模型的局部识别AI 解读

In parametric, nonlinear structural models, a classical sufficient condition for local identification, like Fisher (1966) and Rothenberg (1971), is that the vector of moment conditions is differentiable at the true parameter with full rank derivative matrix. We derive an analogous result for the nonparametric, nonlinear structural models, establishing conditions under which an infinite dimensional analog of the full rank condition is sufficient for local identification.…

不同持久性程度下的预测回归与稳健长跨度回归AI 解读

The paper proposes a novel inference procedure for long-horizon predictive regression with persistent regressors, allowing the autoregressive roots to lie in a wide vicinity of unity. The invalidity of conventional tests when regressors are persistent has led to a large literature dealing with inference in predictive regressions with local to unity regressors. Magdalinos and Phillips (2009b) recently developed a new framework of extended IV procedures (IVX) that enables…

竞争政策与生产率增长：一项实证评估AI 解读

Abstract This paper estimates the impact of competition policy on total factor productivity growth for 22 industries in twelve OECD countries over 1995 to 2005. We find a positive and significant effect of competition policy as measured by created indexes. We provide results based on instrumental variables estimators and heterogeneous effects to support the causal nature of the established link. The effect is particularly strong for specific aspects of competition policy…

非参数工具变量模型的准贝叶斯分析AI 解读

This paper aims at developing a quasi-Bayesian analysis of the nonparametric instrumental variables model, with a focus on the asymptotic properties of quasi-posterior distributions. In this paper, instead of assuming a distributional assumption on the data generating process, we consider a quasi-likelihood induced from the conditional moment restriction, and put priors on the function-valued parameter. We call the resulting posterior quasi-posterior, which corresponds to…

具有一致矩条件选择的自适应 GMM 收缩估计AI 解读

This paper proposes a generalized method of moments (GMM) shrinkage method to efficiently estimate the unknown parameters θ o identified by some moment restrictions, when there is another set of possibly misspecified moment conditions. We show that our method enjoys oracle-like properties; i.e., it consistently selects the correct moment conditions in the second set and at the same time, its estimator is as efficient as the GMM estimator based on all correct moment…

含非平稳性的三角方程系统半参数估计AI 解读

A system of multivariate semiparametric nonlinear time series models is studied with possible dependence structures and nonstationarities in the parametric and nonparametric components. The parametric regressors may be endogenous while the nonparametric regressors are assumed to be strictly exogenous. The parametric regressors may be stationary or nonstationary and the nonparametric regressors are nonstationary integrated time series. Semiparametric least squares (SLS)…

分析师覆盖的负面影响：企业创新的证据AI 解读

We examine the effects of financial analysts on the real economy in the case of innovation. Our baseline results show that firms covered by a larger number of analysts generate fewer patents and patents with lower impact. To establish causality, we use a difference-in-differences approach that relies on the variation generated by multiple exogenous shocks to analyst coverage, as well as an instrumental variable approach. Our identification strategies suggest a negative…

利用次要结局改进存在不依从的随机实验推断AI 解读

We develop new methods for analyzing randomized experiments with noncompliance and, by extension, instrumental variable settings, when the often controversial, but key, exclusion restriction assumption is violated. We show how existing large-sample bounds on intention-to-treat effects for the subpopulations of compliers, never-takers, and always-takers can be tightened by exploiting the joint distribution of the outcome of interest and a secondary outcome, for which the…

具有共同爆炸根的 VAR 回归的不一致性AI 解读

Nielsen (Working paper, University of Oxford, 2009) shows that vector autoregression is inconsistent when there are common explosive roots with geometric multiplicity greater than unity. This paper discusses that result, provides a coexplosive system extension and an illustrative example that helps to explain the finding, gives a consistent instrumental variable procedure, and reports some simulations. Some exact limit distribution theory is derived and a useful new reverse…