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含噪向量场积分曲线的核估计与检验：扩散张量成像中的统计问题AI 解读

Let $v$ be a vector field in a bounded open set $G\subset {\mathbb{R}}^d$. Suppose that $v$ is observed with a random noise at random points $X_i,\ i=1,\dots, n$, that are independent and uniformly distributed in $G$. The problem is to estimate the integral curve of the differential equation \[\frac{dx(t)}{dt}=v(x(t)),\qquad t\geq 0,x(0)=x_{0}\in G,\] starting at a given point $x(0)=x_0\in G$ and to develop statistical tests for the hypothesis that the integral curve reaches…

检验大小、功效与错误发现率AI 解读

Modern scientific technology has provided a new class of large-scale simultaneous inference problems, with thousands of hypothesis tests to consider at the same time. Microarrays epitomize this type of technology, but similar situations arise in proteomics, spectroscopy, imaging, and social science surveys. This paper uses false discovery rate methods to carry out both size and power calculations on large-scale problems. A simple empirical Bayes approach allows the false…

生命周期消费：消费者支出调查数据的事实AI 解读

This paper uses Consumer Expenditure Survey data and a seminonparametric statistical model to estimate life cycle profiles of consumption, controlling for demographics, cohort, and time effects. We construct age profiles for total and nondurable consumption as well as expenditure patterns for consumer durables. Special emphasis is placed on the comparison of different approaches to control for changes in demographics over the life cycle. We find significant humps over the…

遍历及几何遍历马尔可夫链的大数定律AI 解读

For use in asymptotic analysis of nonlinear time series models, we show that with (Xt,t ≥ 0) a (geometrically) ergodic Markov chain, the general version of the strong law of large numbers applies. That is, the average converges almost surely to the expectation of φ(Xt,Xt+1,…) irrespective of the choice of initial distribution of, or value of, X0. In the existing literature, the less general form has been studied.We thank Paolo Paruolo (the co-editor) and the referee for…

平稳模型的贝叶斯一致性AI 解读

In this paper, we provide a Doob-style consistency theorem for stationary models. Many applications involving Bayesian inference deal with non independent and identically distributed data, in particular, with stationary data. However, for such models, there is still a theoretical gap to be filled regarding the asymptotic properties of Bayesian procedures. The primary goal to be achieved is establishing consistency of the sequence of posterior distributions. Here we provide…

基于 VAR 近似的协整检验修正信息准则AI 解读

We consider the cointegration tests of Johansen (1988, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12, 231–254; 1991, Econometrica 59, 1551–1580) when a vector autoregressive (VAR) process of order k is used to approximate a more general linear process with a possibly infinite VAR representation. Traditional methods to select the lag order, such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the Bayesian information criterion, often lead to too parsimonious a model with the…

I(2) 模型协整秩的似然比检验AI 解读

This paper presents the likelihood ratio (LR) test for the number of cointegrating relations in the I(2) vector autoregressive model. It is shown that the asymptotic distribution of the LR test for the cointegration ranks is identical to the asymptotic distribution of the much applied test statistic based on the two-step estimation procedure in Johansen (1995, Econometric Theory 11, 25–59), Paruolo (1996, Journal of Econometrics 72, 313–356), and Rahbek, Kongsted, and…

一般误差分布下平稳一阶自回归模型预测的有限样本性质AI 解读

We study the properties of the multi-period-ahead least-squares forecast for the stationary AR(1) model under a general error distribution. We find that the forecast is unbiased up to O(T−1), where T is the in-sample size, regardless of the error distribution and that the mean squared forecast error, up to O(T−3/2), is robust against nonnormality.The author is grateful to the co-editor Paolo Paruolo and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. The author is solely…

单位根不变检验的可用信息AI 解读

This paper considers the information available to invariant unit root tests at and near the unit root. Because all invariant tests will be functions of the maximal invariant, the Fisher information in this statistic will be the available information. The main finding of the paper is that the available information for all tests invariant to a linear trend is zero at the unit root. This result applies for any sample size, over a variety of distributions and correlation…

缓慢变化回归变量与非线性趋势回归AI 解读

Slowly varying (SV) regressors arise commonly in empirical econometric work, particularly in the form of semilogarithmic regression and log periodogram regression. These regressors are asymptotically collinear. Usual regression formulas for asymptotic standard errors are shown to remain valid, but rates of convergence are affected and the limit distribution of the regression coefficients is shown to be one dimensional. Some asymptotic representations of partial sums of SV…

再犯行为的半非参数竞争风险分析AI 解读

Abstract In this paper we specify a semi‐nonparametric competing risks (SNP‐CR) model of recidivism, for misdemeanors and felonies. The model is a bivariate mixed proportional hazard model with Weibull baseline hazards and common unobserved heterogeneity. The distribution of the latter is modeled semi‐nonparametrically, using orthonormal Legendre polynomials on the unit interval, and integrated out to make the two durations dependent, conditional on the covariates. The…

非对称幂分布：理论及风险度量应用AI 解读

Abstract Theoretical literature in finance has shown that the risk of financial time series can be well quantified by their expected shortfall, also known as the tail value‐at‐risk. In this paper, I construct a parametric estimator for the expected shortfall based on a flexible family of densities, called the asymmetric power distribution (APD). The APD family extends the generalized power distribution to cases where the data exhibits asymmetry. The first contribution of the…

国际福利比较与多变量随机占优的非参数检验AI 解读

Abstract This paper outlines a class of statistical procedures that permit testing of a broad range of multidimensional stochastic dominance hypotheses and, more generally, welfare hypotheses that rely upon multiple stochastic dominance conditions. We apply the procedures to data on income and leisure hours for individuals in Germany, the UK, and the USA. We find that no country first‐order stochastically dominates the others in both dimensions for all years of comparison.…

弱依赖下区块变量和的渐近展开AI 解读

Let {Xi}i=−∞∞ be a sequence of random vectors and $Y_{in}=f_{in}(\mathcal{X}_{i,\ell})$ be zero mean block-variables where $\mathcal{X}_{i,\ell}=(X_{i},\ldots,X_{i+\ell-1})$, i≥1, are overlapping blocks of length ℓ and where fin are Borel measurable functions. This paper establishes valid joint asymptotic expansions of general orders for the joint distribution of the sums ∑i=1nXi and ∑i=1nYin under weak dependence conditions on the sequence {Xi}i=−∞∞ when the block length ℓ…

局部 U 统计过程与多个样本变量函数的密度估计AI 解读

A notion of local U-statistic process is introduced and central limit theorems in various norms are obtained for it. This involves the development of several inequalities for U-processes that may be useful in other contexts. This local U-statistic process is based on an estimator of the density of a function of several sample variables proposed by Frees [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 89 (1994) 517–525] and, as a consequence, uniform in bandwidth central limit theorems in the sup…

Le Cam定理的一个补充AI 解读

This paper examines asymptotic equivalence in the sense of Le Cam between density estimation experiments and the accompanying Poisson experiments. The significance of asymptotic equivalence is that all asymptotically optimal statistical procedures can be carried over from one experiment to the other. The equivalence given here is established under a weak assumption on the parameter space ℱ. In particular, a sharp Besov smoothness condition is given on ℱ which is sufficient…

单调响应模型的似然推断AI 解读

The behavior of maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) and the likelihood ratio statistic in a family of problems involving pointwise nonparametric estimation of a monotone function is studied. This class of problems differs radically from the usual parametric or semiparametric situations in that the MLE of the monotone function at a point converges to the truth at rate n1/3 (slower than the usual $\sqrt{n}$ rate) with a non-Gaussian limit distribution. A framework for…

累积预测误差、信息准则与自回归时间序列的最优预测AI 解读

The predictive capability of a modification of Rissanen’s accumulated prediction error (APE) criterion, APEδn, is investigated in infinite-order autoregressive (AR(∞)) models. Instead of accumulating squares of sequential prediction errors from the beginning, APEδn is obtained by summing these squared errors from stage nδn, where n is the sample size and 1/n≤δn≤1−(1/n) may depend on n. Under certain regularity conditions, an asymptotic expression is derived for the…

时间序列模型的变点检验与近历依赖序列的极限定理AI 解读

This paper first establishes a strong law of large numbers and a strong invariance principle for forward and backward sums of near-epoch dependent sequences. Using these limiting theorems, we develop a general asymptotic theory on the Wald test for change points in a general class of time series models under the no change-point hypothesis. As an application, we verify our assumptions for the long-memory fractional ARIMA model.

单调性约束估计量的 Lp 误差AI 解读

We aim at estimating a function λ:[0,1]→ℝ, subject to the constraint that it is decreasing (or increasing). We provide a unified approach for studying the $\mathbb {L}_{p}$-loss of an estimator defined as the slope of a concave (or convex) approximation of an estimator of a primitive of λ, based on n observations. Our main task is to prove that the $\mathbb {L}_{p}$-loss is asymptotically Gaussian with explicit (though unknown) asymptotic mean and variance. We also prove…

协变量调整的响应自适应设计的渐近性质AI 解读

Response-adaptive designs have been extensively studied and used in clinical trials. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive study of response-adaptive designs that include covariates, despite their importance in clinical trials. Because the allocation scheme and the estimation of parameters are affected by both the responses and the covariates, covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs are very complex to formulate. In this paper, we overcome the technical…

缺失数据模型的蒙特卡洛似然推断AI 解读

We describe a Monte Carlo method to approximate the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), when there are missing data and the observed data likelihood is not available in closed form. This method uses simulated missing data that are independent and identically distributed and independent of the observed data. Our Monte Carlo approximation to the MLE is a consistent and asymptotically normal estimate of the minimizer θ* of the Kullback–Leibler information, as both Monte Carlo…

右删失下具有协变量阈值变点的变换模型推断AI 解读

We consider linear transformation models applied to right censored survival data with a change-point in the regression coefficient based on a covariate threshold. We establish consistency and weak convergence of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators. The change-point parameter is shown to be n-consistent, while the remaining parameters are shown to have the expected root-n consistency. We show that the procedure is adaptive in the sense that the nonthreshold…

函数型数据的统计推断AI 解读

With modern technology development, functional data are being observed frequently in many scientific fields. A popular method for analyzing such functional data is “smoothing first, then estimation.” That is, statistical inference such as estimation and hypothesis testing about functional data is conducted based on the substitution of the underlying individual functions by their reconstructions obtained by one smoothing technique or another. However, little is known about…