论文检索

企业集中度与工作设计：弹性工时安排的案例AI 解读

Abstract We study how employer concentration affects job design, focusing on schedule flexibility as a non-wage job attribute. Using the full text of 46 million UK job vacancies from 2014–2019, we construct new measures of flexible work arrangements using supervised machine learning and large-language-model—assisted annotations. Adopting an instrumental variable strategy using a Bartik-style prediction of the change in employer concentration based on nationwide hiring…

存在内生性的多门槛回归估计与推断AI 解读

Heterogeneity and endogeneity become increasingly common in statistical modeling and econometric practice. Threshold regression provides a simple yet flexible modeling strategy to account for heterogeneity. This paper studies estimation and inference for multi-threshold regression with endogenous regressors. We exploit a novel two-stage estimation procedure based on instrumental variables, which first identifies a set of possible threshold locations using the group LASSO…

单因子或双因子低维因子模型中的弱识别AI 解读

Abstract This paper describes how to reparametrize low-dimensional factor models with one or two factors to fit weak identification theory developed for generalized method of moments models. Some identification-robust tests, here called “plug-in” tests, require a reparametrization to distinguish weakly identified parameters from strongly identified parameters. The reparametrizations in this paper make plug-in tests available for subvector hypotheses in low-dimensional factor…

控制错误发现率的联邦特征选择AI 解读

Abstract Selecting a set of universally relevant features associated with a given response variable across multiple distributed data sites is an important problem in numerous scientific fields. However, performing this federated feature selection task becomes challenging when individual-level data cannot be shared due to privacy concerns. The problem is further complicated by potential heterogeneity in both feature distributions and model parameters across sites. In this…

弱识别函数的强识别泛函推断AI 解读

Abstract In a variety of applications, including nonparametric instrumental variable (NPIV) analysis, proximal causal inference under unmeasured confounding, and analysis of missing-not-at-random data with shadow variables, we are interested in inference on a continuous linear functional (e.g. average causal effects) of nuisance functions (e.g. NPIV regression) defined by conditional moment restrictions. These nuisance functions are often weakly identified, meaning the…

带颜色约束的高斯有向无环图模型AI 解读

Abstract We study submodels of Gaussian directed acyclic graph (DAG) models defined by partial homogeneity constraints imposed on the model error variances and structural coefficients. We represent these models with coloured DAGs and investigate their properties for use in statistical and causal inference. Local and global Markov properties are provided and shown to characterize the coloured DAG model. Additional properties relevant to causal discovery are studied, including…

大型非高斯SVAR及其货币政策应用AI 解读

Summary We develop a large structural vector autoregression (SVAR) that is statistically identified using higher-order moments under non-Gaussian, mutually independent shocks, without imposing economically motivated restrictions. Estimation is performed via an efficient Gibbs sampler that scales well with dimensionality, and we introduce an estimator of the deviance information criterion to facilitate model comparison, including the evaluation of overidentifying economic…

专利、新闻与经济周期AI 解读

Abstract We exploit information in patent applications to construct an instrumental variable for the identification of technology news shocks that relaxes all the identifying assumptions traditionally used in the literature. The instrument recovers news shocks that have no effect on aggregate productivity in the short-run, but are a significant driver of its trend component. The shock prompts a broad-based expansion in anticipation of the future increase in total factor…

技能形成模型中的归一化与误设AI 解读

Abstract An important class of structural models studies the determinants of skill formation and the optimal timing of interventions. In this article, I provide new identification results for these models and investigate the effects of seemingly innocuous scale and location restrictions on parameters of interest. To do so, I first characterize the identified set of all parameters without these additional restrictions and show that important policy-relevant parameters are…

未观测混杂下双变量因果发现的双重稳健识别AI 解读

Summary Learning causal relationships between pairs of complex traits from observational studies is of great interest in many scientific fields. However, most existing methods assume the absence of unmeasured confounding and restrict causal relationships between two traits to be unidirectional, assumptions that may be violated in real-world systems. In this paper, we address the problem of bivariate causal discovery in the presence of unmeasured confounding and potential…

时变面板数据模型中的潜在子群识别AI 解读

This article introduces a time-varying panel data model that incorporates latent group structures, designed to tackle both individual heterogeneity and smooth structural changes over time. We develop an innovative center-augmented K-power means (KPM) methodology that promotes convergence of subjects toward their respective cluster centers, enabling the identification of latent group structures without requiring prior knowledge of group composition. This approach delivers…

交互固定效应面板中潜在组结构的收缩估计与识别AI 解读

This paper provides a framework for joint shrinkage estimation and identification of latent group structures in panel data models with interactive fixed effects and large number of explanatory variables. The latent structure of the model allows individuals to be classified into a number of groups where the number of groups and/or each individual’s group identity are unknown. A doubly penalized principal component estimation procedure using a pairwise fusion penalty and an…

含内生性的时变线性变换面板模型中的偏效应AI 解读

This article develops a new estimator for an average partial effect in nonlinear panel models, where outcomes are time-varying monotonic transformations of latent variables that include fixed effects and endogenous regressors. The partial effect can be time-varying and the counterfactual shift is scale invariant—key advantages over the linear model. We exploit a conditional moment restriction and address the ill-posed nature of recovering the transformation functions using…

二元结果与线性交互AI 解读

We consider general models of linear interactions in binary outcomes. We first characterize the conditions under which these models are coherent and complete. Next, we show that models of linear interactions admit sound microfoundations under assumptions of incomplete information and independence. To help guide practitioners, we discuss key modeling choices and testable restrictions. We then consider a specification that is linear in parameters, and propose a simple…

有效无先验可能性统计推断的高效蒙特卡洛方法AI 解读

Inferential models (IMs) offer prior-free, Bayesian-like posterior degrees of belief designed for statistical inference, which feature a frequentist-like calibration property that ensures reliability of said inferences. The catch is that IMs’ degrees of belief are possibilistic rather than probabilistic and, since the familiar Monte Carlo methods approximate probabilistic quantities, there are significant computational challenges associated with putting this framework into…

通过选择后推断稳健发现微生物组成特征AI 解读

Identifying taxa associated with host phenotypes is crucial for understanding host-microbe interactions and their underlying molecular mechanisms. However, analyzing microbiome data presents unique challenges, as the observed abundances of taxa are high-dimensional, compositional, and subject to both sample-specific and taxon-specific biases. Many existing methods for differential abundance testing struggle to balance false discovery rate control with statistical power. In…

对消费者搜索具有稳健性的离散选择模型估计方法AI 解读

We state conditions under which choice data suffice to identify preferences when consumers may not be fully informed about attributes of goods. Our approach can be used to test for full information, forecast how consumers will respond to information, and conduct welfare analysis when consumers are imperfectly informed. In a lab experiment, we successfully forecast the average response to new information when consumers engage in costly search. In data from Expedia, our method…

时变内生随机系数面板模型的识别与估计AI 解读

This paper proposes a correlated random coefficient linear panel data model, where regressors can be correlated with time-varying and individual-specific random coefficients through both a fixed effect and a time-varying random shock. I develop a new panel data-based method to identify the average partial effect and the local average response function. The identification strategy employs a sufficient statistic to control for the fixed effect and a control variable for the…

经济与金融中的贝叶斯方法：统一综述与分类AI 解读

This special issue brings together 21 papers that reflect the expanding scope and methodological evolution of Bayesian econometrics. We introduce a new organizing taxonomy that distinguishes between Traditional Bayesian Approaches - rooted in conjugate priors, standard likelihood-based estimation, and established Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques - and Contemporary Bayesian Frontiers, characterized by nonparametric methods, variational inference, high-dimensional…

双侧测量误差下的分布效应：代际收入流动应用AI 解读

This paper considers identification and estimation of distributional effect parameters that depend on the joint distribution of an outcome and another variable of interest (“treatment”) in a setting with “two-sided” measurement error—that is, where both variables are possibly measured with error. Examples of these parameters in the context of intergenerational income mobility include transition matrices, rank-rank correlations, and the poverty rate of children as a function…

边界断点设计的估计与推断：基于距离的方法AI 解读

We study nonparametric distance-based (isotropic) local polynomial methods for estimating the boundary average treatment effect curve, a causal functional that captures treatment effect heterogeneity in boundary discontinuity designs. We establish identification, estimation, and inference results both pointwise and uniformly along the treatment assignment boundary. We show that the geometric regularity of the boundary, a one-dimensional manifold, plays a central role in…

多维匹配的半非参数模型：最优传输方法AI 解读

This paper develops a set of empirically tractable and flexible sieve estimators for semi-nonparametric multidimensional matching models with transferable utility, focusing on worker-job matching. We generalize the parametric quadratic-Gaussian framework employed by Bojilov and Galichon (2016) and Lindenlaub (2017), which relies on joint normality of observed characteristics. We allow unrestricted distributions of characteristics and show identification of the production…

工具变量回归中弱工具稳健的子向量推断：拉格朗日乘子检验与 Anderson–Rubin 置信集AI 解读

We propose a weak-instrument-robust subvector Lagrange multiplier test for instrumental variables regression. We show that it is asymptotically size-correct under a technical condition. This is the first weak-instrument-robust subvector test for instrumental variables regression to recover the degrees of freedom of the commonly used non-weak-instrument-robust Wald test. Additionally, we provide a closed-form solution for subvector confidence sets obtained by inverting the…

具有定向作用的工具变量与处理效应AI 解读

Multivalued treatments are commonplace in applications. We explore the use of discrete-valued instruments to control for selection bias in this setting. Our discussion revolves around the concept of targeting: which instruments target which treatments. It allows us to establish conditions under which counterfactual averages and treatment effects are point- or partially-identified for composite complier groups. We explore the additional identifying power of a positive…