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结构时间序列模型与成分的刻画AI 解读

This article analyzes certain properties of a class of recently proposed structural time series models in which particular structures are imposed upon the unobserved components of an observed time series. It is shown how the overall model can be expected to fit series, such as those for which the X-11 or Airline models are appropriate. As for the components, identification of the model is achieved by assigning a certain amount of white noise variation to the trend and…

利用增补辅助信息的回溯观测估计响应概率AI 解读

When augmented by suitable auxiliary information, retrospective data can identify response probabilities. The auxiliary information may take the form of data on marginal distributions or appropriate structural assumptions. When a combination of retrospective observation and auxiliary information suffices in principle to identify response probabilities, practical use of this fact requires that statistically sound and computationally tractable estimation methods be available.…

高级计量经济学：通向文献的桥梁AI 解读

TOPICS IN LARGE SAMPLE THEORY AND APPROXIMATION METHODS. A Review of Asymptotic Distribution Theory and Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Methods of Approximating Distribution Functions, Density Functions, and Moments. TOPICS IN TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. An Introduction to Time Series Analysis. Identification, Estimation, and Prediction in Time Series Models. The Relationship Between Time Series Models and Econometric Models. TOPICS IN ESTIMATION UNDER A QUADRATIC LOSS CRITERION.…

典型分析在时间序列模型识别中的应用AI 解读

The second-order moment structure of time series models is used to derive a canonical analysis in time series modelling. Consistency properties of certain canonical correlations and the corresponding eigenvectors are shown. Based on these properties, a canonical correlation approach for tentative order determination in building autoregressive-moving average models is proposed. This approach can handle directly nonstationary as well as stationary processes and it also…

平稳二维随机过程的一般模型类AI 解读

A parametric family of spectral density-covariance function pairs for stationary spatial processes is introduced. The spectral densities are rational functions of elliptic forms along with factors in the numerator that may be of mixed hyperbolic, parabolic or elliptic form. The resulting covariance functions are linear combinations of modified Bessel functions of the second kind, which have been shown to be the natural basis for two-dimensional covariance functions (Whittle,…

参数模型一致估计的统一理论AI 解读

We present a general theory of consistent estimation for possibly misspecified parametric models based on recent results of Domowitz and White. This theory extends the unification of Burguete, Gallant, and Souza by allowing for heterogeneous, time-dependent data and dynamic models. The theory is applied to yield consistency results for quasi-maximum-likelihood and method of moments estimators. Of particular interest is a new generalized rank condition for identifiability.

若干工具变量检验程序的改进AI 解读

This paper is concerned with Cornish–Fisher corrections of some instrumental variables test statistics. The tests based on the corrected statistics have size with error of a smaller order of magnitude than the original tests. Symmetric Edgeworth-corrected confidence regions are also defined for the structural parameters. All these corrections are given as analytic formulas that require only limited information, so their implementation is a relatively easy task.

选择最佳工具变量估计量AI 解读

This paper considers the problem of finding the "best" estimator among a class that includes most of the commonly used limited information estimators in simultaneous equation systems. Concentration comparisons, based on the Edgeworth expansion of the distribution of these estimators, lead to selection rules of sufficient simplicity to be useful in applied econometric research.

动态回归（分布滞后）模型的识别AI 解读

Dynamic regression models (also known as distributed lag models) are widely used in engineering for quality control and in economics for forecasting. In this article I propose a procedure for specifying such models in practice. The proposed procedure requires no prewhitening and can directly handle the nonstationary series. Furthermore, the procedure cross-validates prior beliefs about causal relationships between variables with empirical findings to ensure the suitability…

摘要暂缺

A bstract-We discuss the problem of testing for constant versus time varying regression coefficients. Our alternative hypothesis allows the coefficients to follow a stationary AR(1) process with unknown autoregressive parameter. Standard testing procedures are inappropriate since this parameter is identified only under the alternative. We propose a test statistic which is a function of a sequence of Score statistics, and depends only on the regressors and the OLS residuals.…

集体诉讼中的损害金额估计AI 解读

In a class action litigation, actual damages are not known exactly and must be estimated. Various estimators are proposed and assessed by using a model that identifies possible sources of error. Estimators that have been used in practice are shown to be seriously biased. An empirical Bayes estimator and an empirical minimal mean squared error estimator are found to be more satisfactory methods for estimating damages.

一般结构方程中工具变量估计量的联合与边际密度AI 解读

Starting from the conditional density of the instrumental variable (IV) estimator given the right-hand-side endogenous variables, we provide an alternative derivation of Phillips' result on the joint density of the IV estimator for the endogenous coefficients, and derive an expression for the marginal density of a linear combination of these coefficients. In addition, we extend Phillips' approximation to the joint density to 0( T −2 ,) and show how this result can be used to…

基于消费的跨期资本资产定价模型：商品期货价格检验AI 解读

ABSTRACT In this paper we extend the multigood futures pricing model of Grauer and Litzenberger [9] to a dynamic discrete time setting. We then test the model using data on futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans. The parameter estimates we obtain are similar to those obtained by other researchers using stock return data. The model itself is rejected and we offer some suggestions as to which assumption may be violated. We also give an interpretation to the…

摘要暂缺

删失与分组数据的再加权最小二乘估计：EM 算法应用AI 解读

SUMMARY We consider the problem of adapting weighted least squares estimation so that estimates can be found with censored or grouped data. The EM algorithm is implemented for the linear model where the errors are assumed to be generated by a scale mixture of normal distributions. In particular, explicit results are given for the case where the marginal distribution of the error is Student-t with an even number of degrees of freedom. Expressions for the observed information…

摘要暂缺

变点风险率模型似然中的一个奇异性AI 解读

A singularity identified by Nguyen, Rogers & Walker (1984) in the log likelihood function for a change-point hazard rate model is eliminated if the likelihood function is appropriately defined.

典型分析在时间序列模型识别中的应用AI 解读

The second-order moment structure of time series models is used to derive a canonical analysis in time series modelling. Consistency properties of certain canonical correlations and the corresponding eigenvectors are shown. Based on these properties, a canonical correlation approach for tentative order determination in building autoregressive-moving average models is proposed. This approach can handle directly nonstationary as well as stationary processes and it also…

平稳二维随机过程的一般模型类AI 解读

A parametric family of spectral density-covariance function pairs for stationary spatial processes is introduced. The spectral densities are rational functions of elliptic forms along with factors in the numerator that may be of mixed hyperbolic, parabolic or elliptic form. The resulting covariance functions are linear combinations of modified Bessel functions of the second kind, which have been shown to be the natural basis for two-dimensional covariance functions (Whittle,…

一类非参数密度与回归估计量AI 解读

A class of maximum penalized likelihood estimators (MPLE) of the density function $f$ is constructed, through the use of a rather general roughness-penalty functional. This class contains all the density estimates in the literature that arise as solutions to MPLE problems with penalties on $f^{1/2}$. In addition, the flexibility of the penalty functional permits the construction of new spline estimates with improved performance at the peaks and valleys of the density curves.…

广义最小二乘估计的全局敏感性结果AI 解读

The covariance matrix for the residuals of a regression process is written as the identity matrix plus a matrix V. The matrix V is bounded from above, and the corresponding set of generalized least squares estimates is identified. The extreme estimates in this set are functions of the usual t statistics; in particular the number ((T - k)/8)1/2/|t| measures the influence of reweighting extreme observations, where T - k gives the degrees of freedom, t is the t statistic, and…

含协变量的对数逻辑斯蒂生存时间模型AI 解读

A model for survival time where the effect of the explanatory variables is multiplicative on the median of a basic log logistic distribution is considered. Two different schemes of observation, namely the binary analysis of the proportion of survivors after a fixed time to and the analysis of all identified failure or censored times, are considered. Some results concerning the relative efficiency of estimators of the regression parameters under the two analyses are obtained.

Whenever marginal prices are nonconstant, as in most hedonic and household production function markets, ordinary least squares estimates of the price elasticities of structural equations will be biased. A two-stage least squares estimation procedure is developed and applied to estimate hedonic (and potentially household production function) demand functions when price gradients are nonlinear.