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补贴培训对受训者收入分位数影响的工具变量估计AI 解读

The effect of government programs on the distribution of participants' earnings is important for program evaluation and welfare comparisons.This paper reports es- timates of the effects of JTPA training programs on the distribution of earnings.The estimation uses a new instrumental variable (IV) method that measures program impacts on the quantiles of outcome variables.This quantile treatment effects (QTE) estimator accommodates exogenous covariates and reduces to quantile…

工具变量有效性的一种新规格检验AI 解读

We develop a new specification test for IV estimators adopting a particular second order approximation of Bekker. The new specification test compares the difference of the forward (conventional) 2SLS estimator of the coefficient of the right-hand side endogenous variable with the reverse 2SLS estimator of the same unknown parameter when the normalization is changed. Under the null hypothesis that conventional first order asymptotics provide a reliable guide to inference, the…

AMP 链图马尔可夫模型的分离与完备性AI 解读

Pearl ’s well-known $d$-separation criterion for an acyclic directed graph (ADG) is a pathwise separation criterion that can be used to efficiently identify all valid conditional independence relations in the Markov model determined by the graph. This paper introduces $p$-separation, a pathwise separation criterion that efficiently identifies all valid conditional independences under the Andersson–Madigan–Perlman (AMP) alternative Markov property for chain graphs ( =…

求职搜寻模型中的最优性检验AI 解读

Models of search in labor markets are potentially of great use for policy analy-sis since their parameters are structural. However, a common feature of these models is that an assumption of optimal behavior on the part of agents is necessary to achieve identifica-tion. From a classical econometric perspective, this means the assumption of optimality is untestable and, if optimality is not imposed, it is impossible to learn about the unidentified parameters. This paper argues…

协变量含测量误差的逻辑回归一致性函数方法AI 解读

We propose consistent functional methods for logistic regression in which some covariates are not accurately ascertainable. Among existing methods for generalized linear models, the conditional-score approach to normal errors does not guarantee the convergence of its estimators, and the corrected-score method generally is not applicable to the logistic-regression score function. In this article, after constructing a correction-amenable estimation procedure with the true…

选择模型的半参数贝叶斯分析AI 解读

Selection models are appropriate when a datum x enters the sample only with probability or weight w(x). It is typically assumed that the weight function w is monotone, but the precise functional form of the weight function is often unknown. In this article, the Dirichlet process prior, centered on a parametric form, is used as a prior distribution on the weight function. This allows for incorporation of knowledge about the weight function, without restricting it to be of…

广义动态因子模型：表示理论AI 解读

This paper, along with the companion paper Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2000, Review of Economics and Statistics 82, 540–554), introduces a new model—the generalized dynamic factor model —for the empirical analysis of financial and macroeconomic data sets characterized by a large number of observations both cross section and over time. This model provides a generalization of the static approximate factor model of Chamberlain (1983, Econometrica 51, 1181–1304) and…

跨期劳动供给模型工具变量估计的有限样本偏误：跨期替代弹性真的很小吗？AI 解读

The empirical literature on intertemporal labor supply behavior documents that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor supply is very low, with a plausible range of zero to 0.2. Drawing upon the literature on the distribution of instrumental variables (IV) estimators, this paper demonstrates that this conventional wisdom is erroneous because it does not take into account the severe finite sample bias in these estimates that arise from weak instruments. This…

神经网络中的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Approximate marginal Bayesian computation and inference are developed for neural network models. The marginal considerations include determination of approximate Bayes factors for model choice about the number of nonlinear sigmoid terms, approximate predictive density computation for a future observable and determination of approximate Bayes estimates for the nonlinear regression function. Standard conjugate analysis applied to the linear parameters leads to an explicit…

相关密度型最小散度估计量的比较AI 解读

This paper compares the minimum divergence estimator of Basu et al. (1998) to a competing minimum divergence estimator which turns out to be equivalent to a method proposed from a different perspective by Windham (1995). Both methods can be applied for any parametric model and contain maximum likelihood as a special case. Efficiencies are compared under model conditions, and robustness properties are studied. Overall the two methods are found to perform quite similarly. Some…

一类广义半参数风险率回归模型AI 解读

A general class of semiparametric hazards regression models for survival data is proposed and studied. This general class includes some popular classes of models as subclasses, such as Cox's proportional hazards model, the accelerated failure time model and a recently proposed class of models called the accelerated hazards model. In the general class of models, a covariate's effect is identified as having two separate components, namely a time-scale change on hazard…

理性成瘾的计量经济学AI 解读

This article reexamines the econometric estimation of rational-addiction models considered by Becker, Grossman, and Murphy (BGM) for cigarette consumption. The rational-addiction model poses a number of additional econometric difficulties including endogeneity due to the presence of leads and lags of the dependent variable and serial correlation in the disturbances. BGM considered a fixed-effects two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator. It is well known that this estimator…

协整向量自回归模型长短期关系的识别与划分AI 解读

We show that the usual rank condition is necessary and sufficient to identify a vector autoregressive process whether the variables are I (0) or I ( d ) for d = 1,2,.... We then use this rank condition to demonstrate the interdependence between the identification of short-run and long-run relations of cointegrated process. We find that both the short-run and long-run relations can be identified without the existence of prior information to identify either relation. But if…

图像形变的惩罚似然方法AI 解读

Summary A warping is a function that deforms images by mapping between image domains. The choice of function is formulated statistically as maximum penalized likelihood, where the likelihood measures the similarity between images after warping and the penalty is a measure of distortion of a warping. The paper addresses two issues simultaneously, of how to choose the warping function and how to assess the alignment. A new, Fourier–von Mises image model is identified, with…

Summary Summary. The regression literature contains hundreds of studies on serially correlated disturbances. Most of these studies assume that the structure of the error covariance matrix Ω is known or can be estimated consistently from data. Surprisingly, few studies investigate the properties of estimated generalized least squares (GLS) procedures when the structure of Ω is incorrectly identified and the parameters are inefficiently estimated. We compare the finite sample…

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随机块结构的估计与预测AI 解读

A statistical approach to a posteriori blockmodeling for digraphs and valued digraphs is proposed. The probability model assumes that the vertices of the digraph are partitioned into several unobserved (latent) classes and that the probability distribution of the relation between two vertices depends only on the classes to which they belong. A Bayesian estimator based on Gibbs sampling is proposed. The basic model is not identified, because class labels are arbitrary. The…

工具变量估计量精确小样本性质的进一步结果AI 解读

generous referee; remaining errors are my own. The exact finite sample distribution for the two-stage least square estimator has been derived for quite general situations (see Phillips (1983) for a survey of the literature). Unfortunately, these general expressions do not lend themselves to easy interpretations. Consequently, a number of authors have looked at special cases to illustrate some of the problems that can arise when using asymptotic distribution results for…

估计教育回报：若干长期计量问题的研究进展AI 解读

This paper reviews a set of recent studies that have attempted to measure the causal effect of education on labor market earnings by using institutional features of the supply side of the education system as exogenous determinants of schooling outcomes. A simple theoretical model that highlights the role of comparative advantage in the optimal schooling decision is presented and used to motivate an extended discussion of econometric issues, including the properties of…

工具变量数量的选择AI 解读

Properties of instrumental variable estimators are sensitive to the choice of valid instruments, even in large cross-section applications. In this paper we address this problem by deriving simple mean-square error criteria that can be minimized to choose the instrument set. We develop these criteria for two-stage least squares (2SLS), limited information maximum likelihood (LIML), and a bias adjusted version of 2SLS (B2SLS). We give a theoretical derivation of the…

动态面板样本选择模型的估计AI 解读

This paper considers the problem of identification and estimation in panel data sample selection models with a binary selection rule, when the latent equations contain strictly exogenous variables, lags of the dependent variables, and unobserved individual effects. We derive a set of conditional moment restrictions which are then exploited to construct two-step GMM-type estimators for the parameters of the main equation. In the first step, the unknown parameters of the…

如何解释教育回报的工具变量估计AI 解读

This article synthesizes economic insights from theoretical models of schooling choice based on individual benefits and econometric work interpreting instrumental variables estimates as weighted averages of individual-specific causal effects. Linkages are illustrated using college proximity to instrument for schooling. After characterizing groups differentially affected by the instrument according to family background, 1 directly compute weights underlying estimation of the…

含测量误差与工具变量的恩格尔曲线估计：贝叶斯分析AI 解读

In this article, we consider the Bayesian estimation of Engel curves specified as the Working–Leser form with the measurement errors on both the left and the right sides. It is noteworthy that in the Bayesian approach no additional variation data (i.e., instrumental variables) are required in contrast with the non-Bayesian approach. We present the Bayesian estimation procedure in both models without an instrumental variable and with an instrumental variable. We also compare…

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