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条件可分离效应的近端因果推断AI 解读

Abstract Scientists regularly pose questions about treatment effects on outcomes conditional on a posttreatment event. However, causal inference in such settings requires care, even in perfectly executed randomized experiments. Recently, the conditional separable effect (CSE) was proposed as an interventionist estimand that corresponds to scientifically meaningful questions in these settings. However, existing results for the CSE require no unmeasured confounding between the…

合成工具变量：从稀疏关联到稀疏因果效应AI 解读

Abstract In many observational studies, researchers are often interested in the effects of multiple exposures on a single outcome. Standard approaches for high-dimensional data, such as the Lasso, assume that the associations between the exposures and the outcome are sparse. However, these methods do not estimate causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we consider an alternative approach that assumes the causal effects under consideration are…

去中心化网络上的惩罚经验似然AI 解读

Abstract Empirical likelihood encounters serious computational challenges when applied to massive datasets or multiple data sources distributed across decentralized networks. This paper proposes a constrained empirical likelihood framework for decentralized networks, utilizing a novel penalization technique to obtain a penalized empirical log-likelihood. The resulting empirical log-likelihood ratio statistic is proved to be asymptotically standard chi-squared even for a…

高维贝叶斯模型中 Metropolis-within-Gibbs 方案的可扩展性AI 解读

Abstract We study general coordinate-wise Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes (such as Metropolis-within-Gibbs samplers), which are commonly used to fit Bayesian non-conjugate hierarchical models. We relate their convergence properties to the ones of the corresponding (potentially not implementable) random scan Gibbs sampler through the notion of conditional conductance. This allows us to study the performances of popular Metropolis-within-Gibbs schemes for non-conjugate…

存在溢出效应时合成控制方法的识别与贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Summary The synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used for causal inference with panel data, particularly when the number of treated units is small. It relies on the stable unit treatment value assumption, ruling out spillover effects. However, interventions often affect not only treated but also untreated units. This study proposes a novel panel data method that extends the standard SCM to account for spillovers and estimate both treatment and spillover effects. The…

高维 VAR(k) 协整检验的渐近理论AI 解读

Abstract The paper studies nonstationary high-dimensional vector autoregressions of order k, VAR(k). Additional deterministic terms such as trend or seasonality are allowed. The number of time periods, T, and the number of coordinates, N, are assumed to be large and of the same order. Under this regime the first-order asymptotics of the Johansen likelihood ratio (LR), Pillai-Bartlett, and Hotelling-Lawley tests for cointegration are derived: The test statistics converge to…

高维异质数据的无模型分布稳健特征筛选与错误发现控制AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a model-free feature screening framework tailored for high-dimensional and heterogeneous datasets, based on a novel distributionally robust dependence measure termed Copula Divergence. The proposed screening method, named CD-Screen, addresses critical limitations of existing feature screening methods, such as restrictive modeling assumptions and sensitivity to heterogeneous feature distributions. CD-Screen ranks features according to their Copula…

本地分布式多网络社区检测的隐私保护迁移学习AI 解读

Modern applications increasingly involve highly sensitive network data, where raw edges cannot be shared due to privacy constraints. We propose \texttt{TransNet}, a new spectral clustering-based transfer learning framework that improves community detection on a \emph{target network} by leveraging heterogeneous, locally stored, and privacy-preserved auxiliary \emph{source networks}. Our focus is the \textit{local differential privacy} regime, in which each local data provider…

高维分位数回归的无模型特征筛选与错误发现控制AI 解读

High-dimensional quantile regressions are powerful tools for capturing the diverse relationships between predictors and response variables across different quantile levels. However, existing feature screening methods for quantile regressions often rely on restrictive model assumptions, limiting their applicability in complex data settings. In this paper, we propose a novel model-free feature screening framework for high-dimensional quantile regressions, leveraging a novel…

将预测作为替代结果：人工智能时代重新审视替代结局AI 解读

Abstract We establish a formal connection between the decades-old surrogate outcome model in biostatistics and economics and the emerging field of prediction-powered inference. The connection treats predictions from pre-trained models, prevalent in the age of AI, as cost-effective surrogates for expensive outcomes that are not fully observed. Building on the surrogate outcomes literature, we develop recalibrated prediction-powered inference, a more efficient approach to…

高维因子模型中多个结构断点的分类与估计AI 解读

This paper proposes a quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator for break points in high-dimensional factor models, specifically accounting for multiple structural breaks. We begin by establishing a necessary and sufficient condition to categorize two distinct types of breaks in factor loadings: singular changes and rotational changes. The analysis of the nearly singular subsample covariance matrices of the pseudo-factors plays a key role in our approach. It allows us to…

异质数据整合的表征检索学习AI 解读

In the era of big data, large-scale, multi-source, multi-modality datasets are increasingly ubiquitous, offering unprecedented opportunities for predictive modeling and scientific discovery. However, these datasets often exhibit complex heterogeneity, such as covariates shift, posterior drift, and blockwise missingness, which worsen predictive performance of existing supervised learning algorithms. To address these challenges simultaneously, we propose a novel Representation…

可观测因子与潜在因子AI 解读

We test for temporal stability in local linear projection coefficients of observable factors on latent ones embedded in a high-dimensional vector obeying a linear factor model. The proposed test explores the fact that, under the null hypothesis, residuals from global linear projections of observable factors on latent ones, computed over a fixed time interval via Principal Component Analysis (PCA), should also be locally uncorrelated with the PCA factors. The test is fully…

异质隐私约束下函数均值估计的最优联邦学习AI 解读

Abstract Federated learning (FL) is a distributed machine learning technique designed to preserve data privacy and security, and it has gained significant importance due to its broad range of applications. This paper addresses the problem of optimal functional mean estimation from discretely sampled data in a federated setting. We consider a heterogeneous framework where the number of individuals, measurements per individual, and privacy parameters vary across one or more…

设定 LASSO 与灵活的特征型资产定价模型AI 解读

This paper studies a partially linear semiparametric additive model that allows for interactions among variables in high-dimensional settings. We propose the Specification LASSO (S-LASSO), a two-step method that integrates LASSO and Adaptive Group LASSO to simultaneously perform variable selection and model specification. Theoretically, we establish that S-LASSO possesses oracle properties in terms of selection consistency and asymptotic normality. Monte Carlo simulations…

断点差分设计中的分位数处理效应AI 解读

Summary This paper studies identification and doubly robust (DR) estimation of quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in difference-in-discontinuities (diff-in-disc) designs when a new treatment is introduced in the post period and a confounding discontinuous policy is present in both periods. We show that QTEs are point identified under a conditional stable-distributional-effect assumption for the confounding treatment, a restriction that is analogous to the distributional…

用于企业生存预测的高维删失 MIDAS 逻辑回归AI 解读

This paper addresses the challenge of forecasting corporate distress, a problem marked by three key statistical hurdles: (i) right censoring, (ii) high-dimensional predictors, and (iii) mixed-frequency data. To overcome these complexities, we introduce a novel high-dimensional censored MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) logistic regression. Our approach handles censoring through inverse probability weighting and achieves accurate estimation with numerous mixed-frequency predictors…

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共同基金 alpha 的异质可预测性：稀疏聚类 GMM 方法AI 解读

Mutual fund managers' skills, measured by risk-adjusted alphas, are predictable using fund characteristics identified by machine learning (e.g., Kaniel et al., 2023, JFE; DeMiguel et al., 2023, JFE). However, alpha's predictive power varies across funds and periods, with most funds exhibiting negligible alphas. To model this heterogeneous predictability, this paper introduces Sparse Clustering GMM, a nonparametric approach for uncovering latent fund groups. SCGMM clusters…

时变向量自回归的模型平均AI 解读

This paper proposes a novel time-varying model averaging (TVMA) approach to enhancing forecast accuracy for multivariate time series subject to structural changes. The TVMA method averages predictions from a set of time-varying vector autoregressive models using optimal time-varying combination weights selected by minimizing a penalized local criterion. This allows the relative importance of different models to adaptively evolve over time in response to structural shifts. We…

断点回归设计中的灵活协变量调整AI 解读

Empirical regression discontinuity (RD) studies often include covariates in their specifications to increase the precision of their estimates. In this paper, we propose a novel class of estimators that use such covariate information more efficiently than existing methods and can accommodate many covariates. Our estimators are simple to implement and involve running a standard RD analysis after subtracting a function of the covariates from the original outcome variable. We…

高维协变量下局部平均处理效应的识别稳健推断AI 解读

This paper presents an inference method for the local average treatment effect (LATE) in the presence of high-dimensional covariates, regardless of the strength of identification. We propose an orthogonalized Anderson-Rubin test statistic that maintains uniformly valid asymptotic size. We provide an easy-to-implement algorithm for inferring the high-dimensional LATE by inverting our test statistic and employing the double/debiased machine learning method. Simulation results…

MCA：面向条件众数的高维众数成分分析AI 解读

The modal factor model represents a novel statistical framework for dimension reduction in high dimensional panel data analysis. It is specifically designed to capture modal factors which exert a significant influence on the conditional mode of the distribution of the observables. Statistical inference for this model is developed based on a newly proposed modal component analysis, where modal factors and their corresponding loadings are estimated through maximizing a…

Lévy过程的快速无似然参数估计AI 解读

ABSTRACT Lévy processes are widely used in financial modeling due to their ability to capture discontinuities and heavy tails, which are common in high‐frequency asset return data. However, parameter estimation remains a challenge when associated likelihoods are unavailable or costly to compute. We propose a fast and accurate method for Lévy parameter estimation using the neural Bayes estimation (NBE) framework—a simulation‐based, likelihood‐free approach that leverages…

政策评估中合成控制的正则化AI 解读

ABSTRACT We propose a unified framework for interpreting and comparing a broad class of synthetic control (SC) methods. Our framework is built on an analysis of a mean‐squared prediction error (MSPE) bound for the counterfactual predicted by a generic SC method, without imposing a specific outcome model. Using this framework, we develop a generalized SC method that provides a more comprehensive regularization of the MSPE bound than several existing SC methods. Through…