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非多项式维度下 Cox 比例风险模型的正则化AI 解读

High throughput genetic sequencing arrays with thousands of measurements per sample and a great amount of related censored clinical data have increased demanding need for better measurement specific model selection. In this paper we establish strong oracle properties of non-concave penalized methods for non-polynomial (NP) dimensional data with censoring in the framework of Cox's proportional hazards model. A class of folded-concave penalties are employed and both LASSO and…

高维扩散过程积分协方差矩阵的估计AI 解读

We consider the estimation of integrated covariance (ICV) matrices of high dimensional diffusion processes based on high frequency observations. We start by studying the most commonly used estimator, the realized covariance (RCV) matrix. We show that in the high dimensional case when the dimension p and the observation frequency n grow in the same rate, the limiting spectral distribution (LSD) of RCV depends on the covolatility process not only through the targeting ICV, but…

非参数条件矩限制模型的后验一致性AI 解读

This paper addresses the estimation of the nonparametric conditional moment restricted model that involves an infinite-dimensional parameter g0. We estimate it in a quasi-Bayesian way, based on the limited information likelihood, and investigate the impact of three types of priors on the posterior consistency: (i) truncated prior (priors supported on a bounded set), (ii) thin-tail prior (a prior that has very thin tail outside a growing bounded set) and (iii) normal prior…

冯·诺依曼熵惩罚与低秩矩阵估计AI 解读

We study a problem of estimation of a Hermitian nonnegatively definite matrix ρ of unit trace (e.g., a density matrix of a quantum system) based on n i.i.d. measurements (X1, Y1), …, (Xn, Yn), where Yj = tr(ρXj) + ξj, j = 1, …, n, {Xj} being random i.i.d. Hermitian matrices and {ξj} being i.i.d. random variables with ${\mathbb{E}}(\xi_{j}|X_{j})=0$. The estimator $$\hat{\rho}^{\varepsilon }:=\mathop{\arg\min}_{S\in{\mathcal{S}}}\Biggl[n^{-1}\sum_{j=1}^{n}\bigl(Y_{j}-\operatorname{tr}(SX_{j})\bigr)^{2}+\varepsilon \operatorname{tr}(S\log S)\Biggr] $$…

稀疏线性判别分析的直接估计方法AI 解读

This article considers sparse linear discriminant analysis of high-dimensional data. In contrast to the existing methods which are based on separate estimation of the precision matrix Ω and the difference δ of the mean vectors, we introduce a simple and effective classifier by estimating the product Ωδ directly through constrained ℓ1 minimization. The estimator can be implemented efficiently using linear programming and the resulting classifier is called the linear…

基于非二部匹配的非参数同质性检验AI 解读

Given a sequence of observations, has a change occurred in the underlying probability distribution with respect to observation order? This problem of detecting change points arises in a variety of applications including health prognostics for mechanical systems, syndromic disease surveillance in geographically dispersed populations, anomaly detection in information networks, and multivariate process control in general. Detecting change points in high-dimensional settings is…

一般高斯图模型的贝叶斯推断及其在多变量格点数据中的应用AI 解读

We introduce efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for inference and model determination in multivariate and matrix-variate Gaussian graphical models. Our framework is based on the G-Wishart prior for the precision matrix associated with graphs that can be decomposable or non-decomposable. We extend our sampling algorithms to a novel class of conditionally autoregressive models for sparse estimation in multivariate lattice data, with a special emphasis on the analysis…

利用复杂抽样数据构建一致的回归树AI 解读

In the past several years a wide range of methods for the construction of regression trees and other estimators based on the recursive partitioning of samples have appeared in the statistics literature. Many applications involve data collected through a complex sample design. At present, however, relatively little is known regarding the properties of these methods under complex designs. This article proposes a method for incorporating information about the complex sample…

用于蛋白质组通路分析的正则化 Hotelling T² 检验AI 解读

Recent proteomic studies have identified proteins related to specific phenotypes. In addition to marginal association analysis for individual proteins, analyzing pathways (functionally related sets of proteins) may yield additional valuable insights. Identifying pathways that differ between phenotypes can be conceptualized as a multivariate hypothesis testing problem: whether the mean vector μ of a p-dimensional random vector X is μ0. Proteins within the same biological…

用于局地校准概率定量降水预测的地统计模型平均AI 解读

Accurate weather benefit many key societal functions and activities, including agriculture, transportation, recreation, and basic human and infrastructural safety. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction models have been developed, in which multiple estimates of the current state of the atmosphere are used to generate probabilistic forecasts for future weather events. However, ensemble systems are uncalibrated and biased, and thus need to be…

大规模相关性筛选AI 解读

This article addresses the problem of screening for variables with high correlations in high-dimensional data in which there can be many fewer samples than variables. We focus on threshold-based correlation screening methods for three related applications: screening for variables with large correlations within a single treatment (autocorrelation screening), screening for variables with large cross-correlations over two treatments (cross-correlation screening), and screening…

离散指数族的不稳定性、敏感性与退化AI 解读

In applications to dependent data, first and foremost relational data, a number of discrete exponential family models has turned out to be near-degenerate and problematic in terms of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and statistical inference. We introduce the notion of instability with an eye to characterize, detect, and penalize discrete exponential family models that are near-degenerate and problematic in terms of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and statistical…

利用高维生物标志物轨迹预测病毒感染AI 解读

There is often interest in predicting an individual's latent health status based on high-dimensional biomarkers that vary over time. Motivated by time-course gene expression array data that we have collected in two influenza challenge studies performed with healthy human volunteers, we develop a novel time-aligned Bayesian dynamic factor analysis methodology. The time course trajectories in the gene expressions are related to a relatively low-dimensional vector of latent…

采用正交象限正态先验的弹性网回归建模AI 解读

The elastic net procedure is a form of regularized optimization for linear regression that provides a bridge between ridge regression and the lasso. The estimate that it produces can be viewed as a Bayesian posterior mode under a prior distribution implied by the form of the elastic net penalty. This article broadens the scope of the Bayesian connection by providing a complete characterization of a class of prior distributions that generate the elastic net estimate as the…

正则化回归估计推断的扰动方法AI 解读

Analysis of high dimensional data often seeks to identify a subset of important features and assess their effects on the outcome. Traditional statistical inference procedures based on standard regression methods often fail in the presence of high-dimensional features. In recent years, regularization methods have emerged as promising tools for analyzing high dimensional data. These methods simultaneously select important features and provide stable estimation of their…

结合混合效应建模的高维常微分方程动态基因调控网络识别AI 解读

Gene regulation is a complicated process. The interaction of many genes and their products forms an intricate biological network. Identification of this dynamic network will help us understand the biological process in a systematic way. However, the construction of such a dynamic network is very challenging for a high-dimensional system. In this article we propose to use a set of ordinary differential equations (ODE), coupled with dimensional reduction by clustering and…

自协方差矩阵的带状正则化：时间序列参数估计与预测AI 解读

Summary The paper addresses a ‘large p–small n’ problem in a time series framework and considers properties of banded regularization of an empirical autocovariance matrix of a time series process. Utilizing the banded autocovariance matrix enables us to fit a much longer auto-regressive AR(p) model to the observed data than typically suggested by the Akaike information criterion, while controlling how many parameters are to be estimated precisely and the level of accuracy.…

连续更新估计量的性质及其矩存在性问题的修正AI 解读

In this paper, we analyze properties of the Continuous Updating Estimator (CUE) proposed by Hansen et al. (1996), which has been suggested as a solution to the finite sample bias problems of the two-step GMM estimator. We show that the estimator should be expected to perform poorly in finite samples under weak identification, in particular, the estimator is not guaranteed to have finite moments of any order. We propose the Regularized CUE (RCUE) as a solution to this…

处理效应估计的因果图及其在有效协变量选择中的应用AI 解读

Careful examination of the structure determining treatment choice and outcomes, as advocated by Heckman (2008), is central to the design of treatment effect estimators and, in particular, proper choice of covariates. Here, we demonstrate how causal diagrams developed in the machine learning literature by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, but not so well known to economists, can play a key role in this examination by using these methods to give a detailed analysis of the choice…

地统计学中的惩罚最大似然估计与变量选择AI 解读

We consider the problem of selecting covariates in spatial linear models with Gaussian process errors. Penalized maximum likelihood estimation (PMLE) that enables simultaneous variable selection and parameter estimation is developed and, for ease of computation, PMLE is approximated by one-step sparse estimation (OSE). To further improve computational efficiency, particularly with large sample sizes, we propose penalized maximum covariance-tapered likelihood estimation…

经验贝叶斯方法与贝叶斯敏感性分析的计算途径AI 解读

We consider situations in Bayesian analysis where we have a family of priors νh on the parameter θ, where h varies continuously over a space $\mathcal{H}$, and we deal with two related problems. The first involves sensitivity analysis and is stated as follows. Suppose we fix a function f of θ. How do we efficiently estimate the posterior expectation of f(θ) simultaneously for all h in $\mathcal{H}$? The second problem is how do we identify subsets of $\mathcal{H}$ which give…

采用广义g先验的完全贝叶斯因子AI 解读

For the normal linear model variable selection problem, we propose selection criteria based on a fully Bayes formulation with a generalization of Zellner’s g-prior which allows for p > n. A special case of the prior formulation is seen to yield tractable closed forms for marginal densities and Bayes factors which reveal new model evaluation characteristics of potential interest.

稀疏备择下的整体检验：方差分析、多重比较与 higher criticismAI 解读

Testing for the significance of a subset of regression coefficients in a linear model, a staple of statistical analysis, goes back at least to the work of Fisher who introduced the analysis of variance (ANOVA). We study this problem under the assumption that the coefficient vector is sparse, a common situation in modern high-dimensional settings. Suppose we have p covariates and that under the alternative, the response only depends upon the order of p1−α of those, 0 ≤ α ≤ 1.…

高维回归分析中的因子模型与变量选择AI 解读

The paper considers linear regression problems where the number of predictor variables is possibly larger than the sample size. The basic motivation of the study is to combine the points of view of model selection and functional regression by using a factor approach: it is assumed that the predictor vector can be decomposed into a sum of two uncorrelated random components reflecting common factors and specific variabilities of the explanatory variables. It is shown that the…