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矩约束模型的一般非嵌套检验统计量AI 解读

In this article, we introduce a new class of Cox’s non-nested test statistics for models defined through overidentifying moment restrictions that depend on a finite dimensional parameter vector. In addition to showing that the GEL test statistics proposed in Smith (1997, Economic Journal 107, 503–519) and Ramalho and Smith (2002, Journal of Econometrics 107, 99–125) are members of this class, we reveal that further members can be constructed using the artificial compound…

用于GMM的广义聚焦信息准则AI 解读

Summary This paper proposes a criterion for simultaneous generalized method of moments model and moment selection: the generalized focused information criterion (GFIC). Rather than attempting to identify the “true” specification, the GFIC chooses from a set of potentially misspecified moment conditions and parameter restrictions to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) of a user‐specified target parameter. The intent of the GFIC is to formalize a situation common in applied…

广义自回归条件异方差模型的稳健拟合优度检验AI 解读

Estimation of time series models with heavy-tailed innovations has been widely discussed, but corresponding goodness-of-fit tests have attracted less attention, primarily because the autocorrelation function commonly used in constructing goodness-of-fit tests necessarily imposes 10 certain moment conditions on the innovations.As a bounded random variable has finite moments of all orders, we address the problem by first transforming the residuals with a bounded function.More…

函数型同期线性模型的统一经验似然比检验及稀疏到稠密数据的相变AI 解读

Summary We consider the problem of testing functional constraints in a class of functional concurrent linear models where both the predictors and the response are functional data measured at discrete time points. We propose test procedures based on the empirical likelihood with bias-corrected estimating equations to conduct both pointwise and simultaneous inferences. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are derived under the null and local alternative…

识别金融传染AI 解读

Summary Identifying contagion effects during periods of financial crisis is known to be complicated by the changing volatility of asset returns during periods of stress. To untangle this we propose a GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) common features approach, where systemic risk emerges from a common factor source (or indeed multiple factor sources) with contagion evident through possible changes in the factor loadings relating to the common…

含内生解释变量的半参数空间自回归模型：犯罪数据应用AI 解读

This study considers semiparametric spatial autoregressive models that allow for endogenous regressors, as well as the heterogenous effects of these regressors across spatial units. For the model estimation, we propose a semiparametric series generalized method of moments estimator. We establish that the proposed estimator is both consistent and asymptotically normal. As an empirical illustration, we apply the proposed model and method to Tokyo crime data to estimate how the…

多无效矩条件下的自适应弹性网GMM估计：模型与矩条件联合选择AI 解读

This article develops the adaptive elastic net generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator in large-dimensional models with potentially (locally) invalid moment conditions, where both the number of structural parameters and the number of moment conditions may increase with the sample size. The basic idea is to conduct the standard GMM estimation combined with two penalty terms: the adaptively weighted lasso shrinkage and the quadratic regularization. It is a one-step…

非线性DSGE模型的剪枝状态空间系统：理论与实证应用AI 解读

This article studies the pruned state-space system for higher-order perturbation approximations to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We show the stability of the pruned approximation up to third order and provide closed-form expressions for first and second unconditional moments and impulse response functions. Our results introduce generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation and impulse-response matching for DSGE models approximated up to third order…

检验两个对称正定矩阵相等的勾股式推广AI 解读

We provide a new test for equality of two symmetric positive-definite matrices that leads to a convenient mechanism for testing specification using the information matrix equality or the sandwich asymptotic covariance matrix of the GMM estimator. The test relies on a new characterization of equality between two k dimensional symmetric positive-definite matrices A and B: the traces of AB−1 and BA−1 are equal to k if and only if A=B. Using this simple criterion, we introduce a…

处理状态仅在一个时期可观测时的双重差分AI 解读

Summary This paper considers the difference‐in‐differences (DID) method when the data come from repeated cross‐sections and the treatment status is observed either before or after the implementation of a program. We propose a new method that point‐identifies the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) via a DID method when there is at least one proxy variable for the latent treatment. Key assumptions are the stationarity of the propensity score conditional on the proxy…

识别集的蒙特卡洛置信集AI 解读

It is generally difficult to know whether the parameters in nonlinear econometric models are point‐identified. We provide computationally attractive procedures to construct confidence sets (CSs) for identified sets of the full parameter vector and of subvectors in models defined through a likelihood or a vector of moment equalities or inequalities. The CSs are based on level sets of “optimal” criterion functions (such as likelihoods, optimally‐weighted or…

正则模型中的过度识别AI 解读

In the unconditional moment restriction model of Hansen (), specification tests and more efficient estimators are both available whenever the number of moment restrictions exceeds the number of parameters of interest. We show that a similar relationship between potential refutability of a model and existence of more efficient estimators is present in much broader settings. Specifically, a condition we name local overidentification is shown to be equivalent to both the…

两个随机向量之间的投影相关AI 解读

We propose the use of projection correlation to characterize dependence between two random vectors. Projection correlation has several appealing properties. It equals zero if and only if the two random vectors are independent, it is not sensitive to the dimensions of the two random vectors, it is invariant with respect to the group of orthogonal transformations, and its estimation is free of tuning parameters and does not require moment conditions on the random vectors. We…

利用矩条件进行状态空间模型的贝叶斯估计AI 解读

We consider Bayesian estimation of state space models when the measurement density is not available but estimating equations for the parameters of the measurement density are available from moment conditions. The most common applications are partial equilibrium models involving moment conditions that depend on dynamic latent variables (e.g., time–varying parameters, stochastic volatility) and dynamic general equilibrium models when moment equations from the first order…

一阶局部欠识别下 GMM 过度识别检验的自助法AI 解读

The main contribution of this paper is to study the applicability of the bootstrap to estimating the distribution of the standard test of overidentifying restrictions of Hansen (1982) when the model is globally identified but the rank condition fails to hold (lack of first-order local identification). An important example for which these conditions are verified is the popular test of common conditionally heteroskedastic features proposed by Engle and Kozicki (1993). As…

偏倚抽样下生存数据分位数回归的估计与推断AI 解读

Biased sampling occurs frequently in economics, epidemiology, and medical studies either by design or due to data collecting mechanism. Failing to take into account the sampling bias usually leads to incorrect inference. We propose a unified estimation procedure and a computationally fast resampling method to make statistical inference for quantile regression with survival data under general biased sampling schemes, including but not limited to the length-biased sampling,…

高维时间序列的高斯近似AI 解读

We consider the problem of approximating sums of high dimensional stationary time series by Gaussian vectors, using the framework of functional dependence measure. The validity of the Gaussian approximation depends on the sample size $n$, the dimension $p$, the moment condition and the dependence of the underlying processes. We also consider an estimator for long-run covariance matrices and study its convergence properties. Our results allow constructing simultaneous…

二元协变量误分类回归中的贝叶斯矩条件推断AI 解读

We present a Bayesian analysis of a regression model with a binary covariate that may have classification (measurement) error. Prior research demonstrates that the regression coefficient is only partially identified. We take a Bayesian approach which adds assumptions in the form of priors on the unknown misclassification probabilities. The approach is intermediate between the frequentist bounds of previous literature and strong assumptions which achieve point identification,…

含测量误差线性面板模型的一致估计AI 解读

Measurement error causes a bias towards zero when estimating a panel data linear regression model. The panel data context offers various opportunities to derive instrumental variables allowing for consistent estimation. We consider three sources of moment conditions: (i) restrictions on the covariance matrix of the errors in the equations, (ii) nonzero third moments of the regressors, and (iii) heteroskedasticity and nonlinearity in the relation between the error-ridden…

处理解释变量缺失的 GMM 方法AI 解读

Missing data are a common challenge facing empirical researchers. This paper presents a general GMM framework and estimator for dealing with missing values of an explanatory variable in linear regression analysis. The GMM estimator is efficient under assumptions needed for consistency of linear-imputation methods. The estimator, which also allows for a specification test of the missingness assumptions, is compared to existing linear imputation, complete data, and dummy…

矩条件模型中 Kleibergen LM 与条件 LR 检验的渐近尺寸AI 解读

An influential paper by Kleibergen (2005, Econometrica 73, 1103–1123) introduces Lagrange multiplier (LM) and conditional likelihood ratio-like (CLR) tests for nonlinear moment condition models. These procedures aim to have good size performance even when the parameters are unidentified or poorly identified. However, the asymptotic size and similarity (in a uniform sense) of these procedures have not been determined in the literature. This paper does so. This paper shows…

半参数条件矩限制模型的广义经验似然估计札记AI 解读

This paper proposes an empirical likelihood-based estimation method for semiparametric conditional moment restriction models, which contain finite dimensional unknown parameters and unknown functions. We extend the results of Donald, Imbens, and Newey (2003, Journal of Econometrics 117, 55–93) by allowing unknown functions to be included in the conditional moment restrictions. We approximate unknown functions by a sieve method and estimate the finite dimensional parameters…

随机缺失数据下的条件矩模型AI 解读

We consider a general statistical model defined by moment restrictions when data are missing at random. Using inverse probability weighting, we show that such a model is equivalent to a model for the observed variables only, augmented by a moment condition defined by the missingness mechanism. Our framework covers parametric and semiparametric mean regressions and quantile regressions. We allow for missing responses, missing covariates and any combination of them. The…

附加条件矩限制的检验AI 解读

The primary focus of this article is the provision of tests for the validity of a set of conditional moment constraints additional to those defining the maintained hypothesis that are relevant for independent cross-sectional data contexts. The point of departure and principal contribution of the paper is the explicit and full incorporation of the conditional moment information defining the maintained hypothesis in the design of the test statistics. Thus, the approach mirrors…