论文检索

IPAD：结合 Knockoffs 推断的稳定可解释预测AI 解读

Interpretability and stability are two important features that are desired in many contemporary big data applications arising in statistics, economics, and finance. While the former is enjoyed to some extent by many existing forecasting approaches, the latter in the sense of controlling the fraction of wrongly discovered features which can enhance greatly the interpretability is still largely underdeveloped. To this end, in this paper we exploit the general framework of…

货币政策对资产价格的时变影响AI 解读

This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I…

信用不良也无妨？不良信用报告的信贷与劳动市场后果AI 解读

ABSTRACT We study the financial and labor market impacts of bad credit reports. Using difference‐in‐differences variation from the staggered removal of bankruptcy flags, we show that bankruptcy flag removal leads to economically large increases in credit limits and borrowing. Using administrative tax records linked to personal bankruptcy records, we estimate economically small effects of flag removal on employment and earnings outcomes. We rationalize these contrasting…

比较可能误设的预测AI 解读

Recent work has emphasized the importance of evaluating estimates of a statistical functional (such as a conditional mean, quantile, or distribution) using a loss function that is consistent for the functional of interest, of which there is an infinite number. If forecasters all use correctly specified models free from estimation error, and if the information sets of competing forecasters are nested, then the ranking induced by a single consistent loss function is sufficient…

参数变换模型对非参数备择的检验AI 解读

Despite an abundance of semiparametric estimators of the transformation model, no procedure has been proposed yet to test the hypothesis that the transformation function belongs to a finite-dimensional parametric family against a nonparametric alternative. In this article, we introduce a bootstrap test based on integrated squared distance between a nonparametric estimator and a parametric null. As a special case, our procedure can be used to test the parametric specification…

高维多样本比较问题的非参数方法AI 解读

Summary High-dimensional $k$-sample comparison is a common task in applications. We construct a class of easy-to-implement distribution-free tests based on new nonparametric tools and unexplored connections with spectral graph theory. The test is shown to have various desirable properties and a characteristic exploratory flavour that has practical consequences for statistical modelling. Numerical examples show that the proposed method works surprisingly well across a broad…

通过高维协变量平衡倾向得分稳健估计因果效应AI 解读

Summary We propose a robust method to estimate the average treatment effects in observational studies when the number of potential confounders is possibly much greater than the sample size. Our method consists of three steps. We first use a class of penalized $M$-estimators for the propensity score and outcome models. We then calibrate the initial estimate of the propensity score by balancing a carefully selected subset of covariates that are predictive of the outcome.…

通过空间填充基函数选择提高平滑样条近似效率AI 解读

Summary We consider the problem of approximating smoothing spline estimators in a nonparametric regression model. When applied to a sample of size $n$, the smoothing spline estimator can be expressed as a linear combination of $n$ basis functions, requiring $O(n^3)$ computational time when the number $d$ of predictors is two or more. Such a sizeable computational cost hinders the broad applicability of smoothing splines. In practice, the full-sample smoothing spline…

确定多变量极值的依赖结构AI 解读

Summary In multivariate extreme value analysis, the nature of the extremal dependence between variables should be considered when selecting appropriate statistical models. Interest often lies in determining which subsets of variables can take their largest values simultaneously while the others are of smaller order. Our approach to this problem exploits hidden regular variation properties on a collection of nonstandard cones, and provides a new set of indices that reveal…

GARCH 模型中 M 估计量的自助法推断AI 解读

Summary We consider the weighted bootstrap approximation to the distribution of a class of M-estimators for the parameters of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model. We prove that the bootstrap distribution, given the data, is a consistent estimate in probability of the distribution of the M-estimator, which is asymptotically normal. We propose an algorithm for the computation of M-estimates which at the same time is useful for computing bootstrap…

高维线性中介模型中间接效应的估计与推断AI 解读

Summary Mediation analysis is difficult when the number of potential mediators is larger than the sample size. In this paper we propose new inference procedures for the indirect effect in the presence of high-dimensional mediators for linear mediation models. We develop methods for both incomplete mediation, where a direct effect may exist, and complete mediation, where the direct effect is known to be absent. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of our indirect…

约束似然比检验的自适应临界值AI 解读

Summary We present a new general method for constrained likelihood ratio testing which, when few constraints are violated, improves upon the existing approach in the literature that compares the likelihood ratio with the quantile of a mixture of chi-squared distributions; the improvement is in terms of both simplicity and power. The proposed method compares the constrained likelihood ratio statistic against the quantile of only one chi-squared random variable with…

利用外部汇总数据改善统计推断的广义整合模型AI 解读

Summary Meta-analysis has become a powerful tool for improving inference by gathering evidence from multiple sources. It pools summary-level data from different studies to improve estimation efficiency with the assumption that all participating studies are analysed under the same statistical model. It is challenging to integrate external summary data calculated from different models with a newly conducted internal study in which individual-level data are collected. We…

混合类型数据的稀疏半参数典型相关分析AI 解读

Summary Canonical correlation analysis investigates linear relationships between two sets of variables, but it often works poorly on modern datasets because of high dimensionality and mixed data types such as continuous, binary and zero-inflated. To overcome these challenges, we propose a semiparametric approach to sparse canonical correlation analysis based on the Gaussian copula. The main result of this paper is a truncated latent Gaussian copula model for data with excess…

时间序列水平变化检测的稳健方法AI 解读

Summary We present a robust and nonparametric test for the presence of a changepoint in a time series, based on the two-sample Hodges–Lehmann estimator. We develop new limit theory for a class of statistics based on two-sample U-quantile processes in the case of short-range dependent observations. Using this theory, we derive the asymptotic distribution of our test statistic under the null hypothesis of a constant level. The proposed test shows better overall performance…

空间盲源分离AI 解读

Summary Recently a blind source separation model was suggested for spatial data, along with an estimator based on the simultaneous diagonalization of two scatter matrices. The asymptotic properties of this estimator are derived here, and a new estimator based on the joint diagonalization of more than two scatter matrices is proposed. The asymptotic properties and merits of the novel estimator are verified in simulation studies. A real-data example illustrates application of…

低秩估计中的错误发现及其控制AI 解读

Summary Models specified by low rank matrices are ubiquitous in contemporary applications. In many of these problem domains, the row–column space structure of a low rank matrix carries information about some underlying phenomenon, and it is of interest in inferential settings to evaluate the extent to which the row–column spaces of an estimated low rank matrix signify discoveries about the phenomenon. However, in contrast with variable selection, we lack a formal framework…

函数型预测变量非参数回归中影响点的超一致估计AI 解读

Summary Predicting scalar outcomes by using functional predictors is a classical problem in functional data analysis. In many applications, however, only specific locations or time points of the functional predictors have an influence on the outcome. Such ‘points of impact’ are typically unknown and must be estimated in addition to estimating the usual model components. We show that our points-of-impact estimator enjoys a superconsistent rate of convergence and does not…

混合模型序贯学习程序的拟贝叶斯性质AI 解读

Summary Bayesian methods are often optimal, yet increasing pressure for fast computations, especially with streaming data, brings renewed interest in faster, possibly suboptimal, solutions. The extent to which these algorithms approximate Bayesian solutions is a question of interest, but often unanswered. We propose a methodology to address this question in predictive settings, when the algorithm can be reinterpreted as a probabilistic predictive rule. We specifically…

通过近似留一交叉验证高效估计样本外预测误差AI 解读

Summary The paper considers the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation under the high dimensional settings where standard techniques such as K-fold cross-validation suffer from large biases. Motivated by the low bias of the leave-one-out cross-validation method, we propose a computationally efficient closed form approximate leave-one-out formula ALO for a large class of regularized estimators. Given the regularized estimate, calculating ALO requires a minor computational…

优化观测 Fisher 信息的自适应实验设计AI 解读

Summary Expected Fisher information can be found a priori and as a result its inverse is the primary variance approximation used in the design of experiments. This is in contrast with the common claim that the inverse of the observed Fisher information is a better approximation of the variance of the maximum likelihood estimator. Observed Fisher information cannot be known a priori; however, if an experiment is conducted sequentially, in a series of runs, the observed Fisher…

异质性处理效应模型中的双向排除限制AI 解读

Summary In this paper, we propose a novel method to identify the conditional average treatment effect partial derivative (CATE-PD) in an environment in which the treatment is endogenous, the treatment effect is heterogeneous, the candidate 'instrumental variables' can be correlated with latent errors, and the treatment selection does not need to be (weakly) monotone. We show that CATE-PD is point-identified under mild conditions if two-way exclusion restrictions exist: (a)…

深度神经网络与计量方法预测气候变化对农业产量影响的比较AI 解读

Summary Predicting the impact of climate change on crop yield is difficult, in part because the production function mapping weather to yield is high dimensional and nonlinear. We compare three approaches to predicting yields: (a) deep neural networks (DNNs), (b) traditional panel-data models, and (c) a new panel-data model that allows for unit and time fixed effects in both intercepts and slopes in the agricultural production function—made feasible by a new estimator called…

非平稳误差下广义变换面板模型的半参数估计AI 解读

Summary Early studies of the generalized transformation panel data model resorted to the identical marginal distribution of the error term over time. This stationarity condition is restrictive for many applications, especially as the number of time periods increases. This paper considers nonstationary censored generalized transformation panel data models where the idiosyncratic error has an unknown nonseparable form and admits a flexible relationship between the observable…