论文检索

自然实验中的随机化推断AI 解读

Since the 2000 U.S. Presidential election, social scientists have rediscovered a long tradition of research examining the effects of ballot format on voting. Using a new dataset collected by The New York Times, we investigate the causal effect of being listed on the first ballot page in the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election. California law mandates a unique randomization procedure of ballot order that, when appropriately modeled, can be used to approximate a…

幼儿园留级政策的评估AI 解读

This article considers the policy of retaining low-achieving children in kindergarten rather than promoting them to first grade. Under the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA) as articulated by Rubin, each child at risk of retention has two potential outcomes: Y(1) if retained and Y(0) if promoted. But SUTVA is questionable, because a child's potential outcomes will plausibly depend on which school that child attends and also on treatment assignments of other…

最佳处理均值与对照均值之差的统计推断AI 解读

In many experiments, researchers are interested in comparing several treatment means with a control mean. When there are some treatments significantly better than the control, it is often of interest to evaluate the difference between the best treatment mean and the control mean and to identify the best treatment. In this article we derive lower confidence bounds for the aforementioned difference for the case that treatments are at least as effective as the control and for…

利用黑暗遮蔽检验交通拦截中的种族差别对待AI 解读

The key problem in testing for racial profiling in traffic stops is estimating the risk set, or “benchmark,” against which to compare the race distribution of stopped drivers. To date, the two most common approaches have been to use residential population data or to conduct traffic surveys in which observers tally the race distribution of drivers at a certain location. It is widely recognized that residential population data provide poor estimates of the population at risk…

理解本质异质性模型中的工具变量AI 解读

This paper examines the properties of instrumental variables (IV) applied to models with essential heterogeneity, that is, models where responses to interventions are heterogeneous and agents adopt treatments (participate in programs) with at least partial knowledge of their idiosyncratic response. We analyze two-outcome and multiple-outcome models, including ordered and unordered choice models. We allow for transition-specific and general instruments. We generalize previous…

存在选择的非正态处理—结果模型：设定、模拟似然估计与医疗利用应用AI 解读

We develop a specification and estimation framework for a class of nonlinear, non-normal microeconometric models of treatment and outcome with selection. A latent factor structure is used to accommodate selection into treatment and a simulated likelihood method is used for estimation. The methodology is applied to examine the causal effect of managed care, a multinomial discrete choice process, on the utilization of health care services, measured as binary indicators and…

你认识多少在监狱中的人？AI 解读

Networks—sets of objects connected by relationships—are important in a number of fields. The study of networks has long been central to sociology, where researchers have attempted to understand the causes and consequences of the structure of relationships in large groups of people. Using insight from previous network research, Killworth et al. and McCarty et al. have developed and evaluated a method for estimating the sizes of hard-to-count populations using network data…

交替治疗安排研究中的失效时间数据分析AI 解读

We develop statistical methods for designing and analyzing studies in which treatments are deliberately interrupted and reinitiated, but where interest lies in making inferences about continuous treatment use. We refer to such designs as alternating designs, because subjects alternate between periods in which they are taking the treatment of interest and periods when they are not. Our goals are to determine how to estimate the distribution of time to an event if the…

混合治疗比较中的证据不一致性评估AI 解读

Randomized comparisons among several treatments give rise to an incomplete-blocks structure known as mixed treatment comparisons (MTCs). To analyze such data structures, it is crucial to assess whether the disparate evidence sources provide consistent information about the treatment contrasts. In this article we propose a general method for assessing evidence inconsistency in the framework of Bayesian hierarchical models. We begin with the distinction between basic…

删失下连续事件生活质量调整间隔时间分布的估计AI 解读

When treatment effects are studied in the context of successive or recurrent life events, separate analyses of the quality-of-life scores and of the inter-event, gap, times might lead to possibly contradictory conclusions. In an attempt to reconcile this, we propose a unitary and more comprehensive nonparametric analysis that combines the two separate analyses by introducing the quality-of-life-adjusted gap time concept. Inverse probability of censoring estimators of the…

纵向数据中次序约束假设的检验AI 解读

Summary In many biomedical studies, we are interested in comparing treatment effects with an inherent ordering. We propose a quadratic score test (QST) based on a quadratic inference function for detecting an order in treatment effects for correlated data. The quadratic inference function is similar to the negative of a log-likelihood, and it provides test statistics in the spirit of a χ2-test for testing nested hypotheses as well as for assessing the goodness of fit of…

摘要暂缺

智慧城市：生活质量、生产率与人力资本的增长效应AI 解读

From 1940 to 1990, a 10% increase in a metropolitan area's concentration of college-educated residents was associated with a 0.8% increase in subsequent employment growth. Instrumental variables estimates support a causal relationship between college graduates and employment growth, but show no evidence of an effect of high school graduates. Using data on growth in wages, rents, and house values, I calibrate a neoclassical city growth model and find that roughly 60% of the…

含内生解释变量的非参数线性模型中的若干识别问题AI 解读

In applied work economists often seek to relate a given response variable y to some causal parameter μ* associated with it. This parameter usually represents a summarization based on some explanatory variables of the distribution of y, such as a regression function, and treating it as a conditional expectation is central to its identification and estimation. However, the interpretation of μ* as a conditional expectation breaks down if some or all of the explanatory variables…

删失临床数据中两阶段随机化设计的生存分布半参数有效估计AI 解读

Two-stage randomisation designs are useful in the evaluation of combination therapies where patients are initially randomised to an induction therapy and then, depending upon their response and consent, are randomised to a maintenance therapy. In this paper we derive the best regular asymptotically linear estimator for the survival distribution and related quantities of treatment regimes. We propose an estimator which is easily computable and is more efficient than existing…

疫苗对感染后二元结局的因果效应AI 解读

The effects of vaccine on postinfection outcomes, such as disease, death, and secondary transmission to others, are important scientific and public health aspects of prophylactic vaccination. As a result, evaluation of many vaccine effects condition on being infected. Conditioning on an event that occurs posttreatment (in our case, infection subsequent to assignment to vaccine or control) can result in selection bias. Moreover, because the set of individuals who would become…

非线性双重差分模型的识别与推断AI 解读

This paper develops a generalization of the widely used difference-in-differences method for evaluating the effects of policy changes. We propose a model that allows the control and treatment groups to have different average benefits from the treatment. The assumptions of the proposed model are invariant to the scaling of the outcome. We provide conditions under which the model is nonparametrically identified and propose an estimator that can be applied using either repeated…

企业会从国际贸易中学习吗？AI 解读

Using patent citations as a proxy for the influence of foreign technology on French firms' patents, this paper finds that the inventions of importers are significantly more likely to be influenced by foreign technology than are the inventions of firms that do not import. Furthermore, importers' citations increase relative to similar firms after they start importing. Exporting, in contrast, is not significantly associated with citations to foreign patents. These results…

企业是否从国际贸易中学习？AI 解读

Using patent citations as a proxy for the influence of foreign technology on French firms' patents, this paper finds that the inventions of importers are significantly more likely to be influenced by foreign technology than are the inventions of firms that do not import. Furthermore, importers' citations increase relative to similar firms after they start importing. Exporting, in contrast, is not significantly associated with citations to foreign patents. These results…

平均处理效应匹配估计量的大样本性质AI 解读

Matching estimators for average treatment effects are widely used in evaluation research despite the fact that their large sample properties have not been established in many cases. The absence of formal results in this area may be partly due to the fact that standard asymptotic expansions do not apply to matching estimators with a fixed number of matches because such estimators are highly nonsmooth functionals of the data. In this article we develop new methods for…

用三元 Copula 建模样本选择与处理效应AI 解读

Simultaneous nonlinear econometric models with discrete outcomes are often difficult to implement. This article considers the use of the copula approach for a model with three jointly determined outcomes. It also deals with the discrete case in which outcomes include a mixture of dichotomous choices and discrete count data. We apply this technique to study self-selection and interdependence between health insurance and health care demand among married couples. The full model…

高中毕业与青年未来失业：来自High School and Beyond的新证据AI 解读

Abstract In this paper, I provide new evidence from High School and Beyond (HSB) on the effects of compulsory attendance on high school completion and future youth unemployment. I develop Bayesian estimation approaches to the simultaneous equation model with ordered probit and two‐limit censored regression and the bivariate duration model, accounting for the heterogeneity in returns to education and the nonlinearity in the effects of compulsory attendance. I find substantial…

对福利退出者提供限时工资补贴的效应估计AI 解读

In the Self Sufficiency Project (SSP) welfare demonstration, members of a randomly assigned treatment group could receive a subsidy for full-time work. The subsidy was available for 3 years, but only to people who began working full time within 12 months of random assignment. A simple optimizing model suggests that the eligibility rules created an “establishment” incentive to find a job and leave welfare within a year of random assignment, and an “entitlement” incentive to…

控制过多因素可能破坏处理可忽略性AI 解读

This problem shows how the key ignorability-of-treatment assumption used in estimating treatment effects can be violated when certain factors are included among the covariates. The case considered is when there are J + 1 treatment levels, treatment is randomized with respect to potential outcomes, but the distribution of included covariates differs across treatment levels.