论文检索

边际政策变化的评估与决策边界人群的平均处理效应AI 解读

This paper develops methods for evaluating marginal policy changes. We characterize how the effects of marginal policy changes depend on the direction of the policy change, and show that marginal policy effects are fundamentally easier to identify and to estimate than conventional treatment parameters. We develop the connection between marginal policy effects and the average effect of treatment for persons on the margin of indifference between participation in treatment and…

学校改革对教育与劳动力市场表现的影响：智利普遍教育券制度的证据AI 解读

This paper studies the effects of school reform in Chile, which adopted a nationwide school voucher program along with school decentralization reforms in 1981. Since then, Chile has had a relatively unregulated, competitive market in primary and secondary education. It therefore provides a unique setting in which to study how these reforms affected school attainment and labor market outcomes. This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of school attendance and work…

切换机制模型中处理效应分布的部分识别及其置信集AI 解读

In this paper, we establish sharp bounds on the joint distribution of potential outcomes and the distribution of treatment effects in parametric switching regime models with normal mean-variance mixture errors and in the semi-parametric switching regime models of Heckman (1990). Our results for parametric switching regime models with normal mean-variance mixture errors extend some existing results for the Gaussian switching regime model and our results for semi-parametric…

双重稳健 G 估计量方差的一则说明AI 解读

A recursive variance calculation is derived for doubly-robust G-estimators for dynamic treatment regimes in a multi-interval setting. Treatment decision parameters are not assumed to be shared across treatment intervals; this independence of parameters permits sequential estimation of the G-estimators’ variance when G-estimation is performed in a sequential fashion. The recursive variance calculation is both natural and computationally feasible. This development can easily…

从观测数据估计高维干预效应AI 解读

We assume that we have observational data generated from an unknown underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) model. A DAG is typically not identifiable from observational data, but it is possible to consistently estimate the equivalence class of a DAG. Moreover, for any given DAG, causal effects can be estimated using intervention calculus. In this paper, we combine these two parts. For each DAG in the estimated equivalence class, we use intervention calculus to estimate the…

匹配观察研究中敏感性分析的扩维解释AI 解读

A sensitivity analysis displays the increase in uncertainty that attends an inference when a key assumption is relaxed. In matched observational studies of treatment effects, a key assumption in some analyses is that subjects matched for observed covariates are comparable, and this assumption is relaxed by positing a relevant covariate that was not observed and not controlled by matching. What properties would such an unobserved covariate need to have to materially alter the…

结局依赖的两阶段抽样设计中的因果推断AI 解读

Summary We consider estimation of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome from observational data collected in two phases. In the first phase, a simple random sample of individuals is drawn from a population. On these individuals, information is obtained on treatment, outcome and a few low dimensional covariates. These individuals are then stratified according to these factors. In the second phase, a random subsample of individuals is drawn from each stratum, with…

长期福利领取者收入补贴的动态效应：自立项目申请者实验的证据AI 解读

In the Self Sufficiency Project Applicant Experiment, new welfare entrants were informed that if they remained on public assistance for a year they would become eligible to receive a generous earnings subsidy offer. Those who satisfied the waiting period, and then left welfare and began working full time within the following year, were entitled to receive payments for up to 36 months whenever they were off welfare and working full time. A simple optimizing model suggests…

不确定数据的信号提取：状态空间方法AI 解读

Most macroeconomic data are uncertain—they are estimates rather than perfect measures of underlying economic variables. One symptom of that uncertainty is the propensity of statistical agencies to revise their estimates in the light of new information or methodological advances. This paper sets out an approach for extracting the signal from uncertain data. It describes a two-step estimation procedure in which the history of past revisions is first used to estimate the…

多维因果时间过程准极大似然估计量的渐近正态性AI 解读

Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator are given for a general class of multidimensional causal processes. For particular cases already studied in the literature [for instance univariate or multivariate ARCH(∞) processes], the assumptions required for establishing these results are often weaker than existing conditions. The QMLE asymptotic behavior is also given for numerous new examples of univariate or multivariate processes…

二元选择模型的参数化链接函数：频率学派与贝叶斯的对话AI 解读

The familiar logit and probit models provide convenient settings for many binary response applications, but a larger class of link functions may be occasionally desirable. Two parametric families of link functions are investigated: the Gosset link based on the Student t latent variable model with the degrees of freedom parameter controlling the tail behavior, and the Pregibon link based on the (generalized) Tukey [lambda] family, with two shape parameters controlling…

改进不完整数据下总体均值双重稳健估计的效率与稳健性AI 解读

Abstract Considerable recent interest has focused on doubly robust estimators for a population mean response in the presence of incomplete data, which involve models for both the propensity score and the regression of outcome on covariates. The usual doubly robust estimator may yield severely biased inferences if neither of these models is correctly specified and can exhibit nonnegligible bias if the estimated propensity score is close to zero for some observations. We…

分布性及一般处理效应的半参数估计与推断AI 解读

Summary There is a large literature on methods of analysis for randomized trials with noncompliance which focuses on the effect of treatment on the average outcome. The paper considers evaluating the effect of treatment on the entire distribution and general functions of this effect. For distributional treatment effects, fully non-parametric and fully parametric approaches have been proposed. The fully non-parametric approach could be inefficient but the fully parametric…

集群随机投票动员活动的效果归因AI 解读

Early in the twentieth century, Fisher and Neyman demonstrated how to infer effects of agricultural interventions using only the very weakest of assumptions, by randomly varying which plots were to be manipulated. Although the methods permitted uncontrolled variation between experimental units, they required strict control over assignment of interventions; this hindered their application to field studies with human subjects, who ordinarily could not be compelled to comply…

老年人的健康与工作：主观健康测量、报告误差及内生性AI 解读

Abstract This paper explores the interrelation between health and work decisions of older workers. For this, two issues are of relevance. Firstly, health and work may be endogenously related because of direct causal effects of health on work and vice versa, and because of unobservables that may affect both observed health and work outcomes. Secondly, social surveys usually contain self‐assessed health measures and research indicates that these may be subject to endogenous,…

α 稳定自回归过程的最大似然估计AI 解读

We consider maximum likelihood estimation for both causal and noncausal autoregressive time series processes with non-Gaussian α-stable noise. A nondegenerate limiting distribution is given for maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the autoregressive model equation and the parameters of the stable noise distribution. The estimators for the autoregressive parameters are n1/α-consistent and converge in distribution to the maximizer of a random function. The form…

企业避税与公司价值AI 解读

Do corporate tax avoidance activities advance shareholder interests? This paper tests alternative theories of corporate tax avoidance using unexplained differences between income reported to capital markets and to tax authorities. OLS estimates indicate that the effect of tax avoidance on firm value is a function of firm governance, as predicted by an agency perspective on corporate tax avoidance. Instrumental variables estimates based on exogenous changes in tax regulations…

指数异方差下二元响应与连续结果的半参数模型AI 解读

Abstract This paper formulates a likelihood‐based estimator for a double‐index, semiparametric binary response equation. A novel feature of this estimator is that it is based on density estimation under local smoothing. While the proofs differ from those based on alternative density estimators, the finite sample performance of the estimator is significantly improved. As binary responses often appear as endogenous regressors in continuous outcome equations, we also develop an…

利用条件双重差分评价东德培训项目的动态就业效应AI 解读

Abstract This study analyzes the employment effects of training in East Germany. We propose and apply an extension of the widely used conditional difference‐in‐differences estimator. Focusing on transition rates between nonemployment and employment, we take into account that employment is a state‐ and duration‐dependent process. Our results show that using transition rates is more informative than using unconditional employment rates as commonly done in the literature.…

删失与未删失数据集的最优组合AI 解读

We develop a simple semiparametric framework for combining censored and uncensored samples so that the resulting estimators are consistent, asymptotically normal, and use all information optimally. No nonparametric smoothing is required to implement our estimators. To illustrate our results in an empirical setting, we show how to estimate the effect of changes in compulsory schooling laws on age at first marriage, a variable that is censored for younger individuals. Results…

有限样本下的最小最大遗憾处理选择AI 解读

This paper applies the minimax regret criterion to choice between two treatments conditional on observation of a finite sample. The analysis is based on exact small sample regret and does not use asymptotic approximations or finite-sample bounds. Core results are: (i) Minimax regret treatment rules are well approximated by empirical success rules in many cases, but differ from them significantly-both in terms of how the rules look and in terms of maximal regret incurred-for…

利用参与条件分布检验倾向得分设定AI 解读

Propensity score matching has become a popular method for the estimation of average treatment effects. In empirical applications, researchers almost always impose a parametric model for the propensity score. This practice raises the possibility that the model for the propensity score is misspecified and therefore the propensity score matching estimator of the average treatment effect may be inconsistent. We show that the common practice of calculating estimates of the…

This paper empirically assesses the wage effects of the Job Corps program, one of the largest federally funded job training programs in the U.S. Even with the aid of a randomized experiment, the impact of a training program on wages is difficult to study because of sample selection, a pervasive problem in applied microeconometric research. Wage rates are only observed for those who are employed, and employment status itself may be affected by the training program. This paper…

倾向得分模型的设定：贸易政策分析中的应用AI 解读

The use of propensity score methods for program evaluation with nonexperimental data typically requires that the propensity score be estimated, often with a model whose specification is unknown. Although theoretical results suggest that estimators using more flexible propensity score specifications perform better, this has not filtered into applied research. Here we provide Monte Carlo evidence indicating benefits of overspecifying the propensity score that are robust across…