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教师质量与学生成绩：荷兰双胞胎样本的证据AI 解读

Summary This paper examines the causal link that runs from classroom quality to student achievement using data on twin pairs who entered the same school but were allocated to different classrooms in an exogenous way. In particular, we apply twin fixed‐effects estimation to assess the effect of teacher quality on student test scores from second through eighth grade of primary education, arguing that a change in teacher quality is probably the most important classroom…

面板数据平均处理效应估计：渐近理论与实施AI 解读

Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012) propose a novel method to estimate the average treatment effect using panel data. In this paper, we accomplish the following: (i) We relax some of the distributional assumptions made in HCW and show that the HCW method works for a much wider range of data generating processes; (ii) We derive the asymptotic distribution of HCW’s average treatment effect estimator which facilitates inference; (iii) When there exists a large number of control units,…

潜在结果联合分布泛函的部分识别AI 解读

In this paper, we present a systematic study of partial identification of two general classes of functionals of the joint distribution of two “potential outcomes” when a bivariate sample from the joint distribution is not available to the econometrician. Assuming the identification of the conditional marginal distributions of potential outcomes and the distribution of the covariate vector, we show that the identified sets for functionals in both classes are intervals and…

住房净值融资可得性与消费：来自政策实验的证据AI 解读

Using unique consumer financial transactions of more than 56,000 consumers, we study the consumption response to a housing policy experiment in Singapore that resulted in a decrease in access to home equity. Using difference-in-differences analysis, we find a significant negative consumption response to the policy shock. Moreover, the consumption response is concentrated in credit card spending and is stronger among individuals with limited access to credit market or with a…

主观幸福感与收入：用未知阈值回归折点模型重新检验饱和点AI 解读

Summary A methodological challenge in testing Easterlin's paradox, which states that increasing income fails to boost happiness beyond a satiation point, lies in the determination of this threshold if it exists. In the existing literature, various levels of GDP per capita have been chosen based upon visual inspection of the scatter plots of the data. The estimated income–well‐being gradients are sensitive to the choice of such kink points. We first replicate the results in…

企业声望对高管薪酬的影响AI 解读

We show that chief executive officers (CEOs) of prestigious firms earn less. Total compensation is on average 8% lower for firms listed in Fortune’s ranking of America’s most admired companies. We suggest that CEOs are willing to trade off status and career benefits from working for a publicly admired company against additional monetary compensation. Our identification strategy is based on matched sample analyses, difference-in-differences regressions, and a regression…

金融契约与组织形式：来自贸易信贷监管的证据AI 解读

ABSTRACT We present evidence that restrictions to the set of feasible financial contracts affect buyer‐supplier relationships and the organizational form of the firm. We exploit a regulation that restricted the maturity of the trade credit contracts that a large retailer could sign with some of its small suppliers. Using a within‐product difference‐in‐differences identification strategy, we find that the restriction reduces the likelihood of trade by 11%. The retailer also…

异质性与工具变量测量误差下的工具变量方法AI 解读

We study the consequences of substituting an error-laden proxy W for an instrument Z on the interpretation of Wald, local instrumental variable (LIV), and instrumental variable (IV) estimands in an ordered discrete choice structural system with heterogeneity. A proxy W need only satisfy an exclusion restriction and that the treatment and outcome are mean independent from W given Z . Unlike Z , W need not satisfy monotonicity and may, under particular specifications, fail…

条件处理效应的一致检验AI 解读

We construct tests for the null hypothesis that the conditional average treatment effect is non‐negative, conditional on every possible value of a subset of covariates. Testing such a null hypothesis can provide more information than the sign of the average treatment effects parameter. The null hypothesis can be characterized as infinitely many of unconditional moment inequalities. A Kolmogorov–Smirnov test is constructed based on these unconditional moment inequalities, and…

利用充分降维估计基于回归的因果效应AI 解读

In many causal inference problems the parameter of interest is the regression causal effect, defined as the conditional mean difference in the potential outcomes given covariates. In this paper we discuss how sufficient dimension reduction can be used to aid causal inference, and we propose a new estimator of the regression causal effect inspired by minimum average variance estimation. The estimator requires a weaker common support condition than propensity score-based…

Instrumental variables are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. The discrete instrumental variable model has testable implications for the law of the observed data. However, current assessments of instrumental validity are typically based solely on subject-matter arguments rather than these testable implications, partly due to a lack of formal statistical tests with known properties. In this paper, we develop simple procedures…

高维微观数据的合成控制框架：评估社区犯罪干预AI 解读

The synthetic control method is an increasingly popular tool for analysis of program efficacy. Here, it is applied to a neighborhood-specific crime intervention in Roanoke, VA, and several novel contributions are made to the synthetic control toolkit. We examine high-dimensional data at a granular level (the treated area has several cases, a large number of untreated comparison cases, and multiple outcome measures). Calibration is used to develop weights that exactly match…

基于半竞争风险效用的非小细胞肺癌稳健治疗比较AI 解读

A design is presented for a randomized clinical trial comparing two second-line treatments, chemotherapy versus chemotherapy plus reirradiation, for treatment of recurrent non-small-cell lung cancer. The central research question is whether the potential efficacy benefit that adding reirradiation to chemotherapy may provide justifies its potential for increasing the risk of toxicity. The design uses two co-primary outcomes: time to disease progression or death, and time to…

匹配观察研究中二元结局复合原假设的随机化推断与敏感性分析AI 解读

We present methods for conducting hypothesis testing and sensitivity analyses for composite null hypotheses in matched observational studies when outcomes are binary. Causal estimands discussed include the causal risk difference, causal risk ratio, and the effect ratio. We show that inference under the assumption of no unmeasured confounding can be performed by solving an integer linear program, while inference allowing for unmeasured confounding of a given strength requires…

用于估计个体化治疗规则的残差加权学习AI 解读

Personalized medicine has received increasing attention among statisticians, computer scientists, and clinical practitioners. A major component of personalized medicine is the estimation of individualized treatment rules (ITRs). Recently, Zhao et al. (2012) proposed outcome weighted learning (OWL) to construct ITRs that directly optimize the clinical outcome. Although OWL opens the door to introducing machine learning techniques to optimal treatment regimes, it still has…

缺失数据问题中高效的增广逆概率加权估计AI 解读

When analyzing data with missing data, a commonly used method is the inverse probability weighting (IPW) method, which reweights estimating equations with propensity scores. The popularity of the IPW method is due to its simplicity. However, it is often being criticized for being inefficient because most of the information from the incomplete observations is not used. Alternatively, the regression method is known to be efficient but is nonrobust to the misspecification of…

多元广义分位数回归的置信带AI 解读

We focus on the construction of confidence corridors for multivariate nonparametric generalized quantile regression functions. This construction is based on asymptotic results for the maximal deviation between a suitable nonparametric estimator and the true function of interest, which follow after a series of approximation steps including a Bahadur representation, a new strong approximation theorem, and exponential tail inequalities for Gaussian random fields. As a byproduct…

跨国债务执行、企业投资与风险承担AI 解读

We argue that the prospect of an imperfect enforcement of debt contracts in default reduces shareholder–debtholder conflicts and induces leveraged firms to invest more and take on less risk as they approach financial distress. To test these predictions, we use a large panel of firms in 41 countries with heterogeneous debt enforcement characteristics. Consistent with our model, we find that the relation between debt enforcement and firms’ investment and risk depends on the…

内生性与不依从下已处理者及其他群体平均处理效应的尖锐工具变量界限AI 解读

Summary In the presence of an endogenous binary treatment and a valid binary instrument, causal effects are point identified only for the subpopulation of compliers, given that the treatment is monotone in the instrument. With the exception of the entire population, causal inference for further subpopulations has been widely ignored in econometrics. We invoke treatment monotonicity and/or dominance assumptions to derive sharp bounds on the average treatment effects on the…

近似对称性假设下的随机化检验AI 解读

This paper develops a theory of randomization tests under an approximate symmetry as-sumption. Randomization tests provide a general means of constructing tests that control size in finite samples whenever the distribution of the observed data exhibits symmetry under the null hypothesis. Here, by exhibits symmetry we mean that the distribution remains invariant under a group of transformations. In this paper, we provide conditions under which the same construction can be…

重叠不足下平均处理效应的稳健置信区间AI 解读

Robust Confidence Intervals for Average Treatment Effects under Limited Overlap *Estimators of average treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignment are known to become rather imprecise if there is limited overlap in the covariate distributions between the treatment groups.But such limited overlap can also have a detrimental effect on inference, and lead for example to highly distorted confidence intervals.This paper shows that this is because the coverage error…

高维数据下的项目评估与因果推断AI 解读

The accepted manuscript version (last revised 5 Jan 2018 (v8)) has 118 pages, 3 tables, 11 figures, and includes supplementary appendix. This version corrects some typos in Example 2 of the published version. This supplement contains 11 appendices with additional results and some omitted proofs. Appendices F-J include additional results for Sections 2-7, respectively. Appendix K gathers auxiliary results on algebra of covering entropies. Appendices L and M contain the proofs…

通过图示干预层级统一因果推断AI 解读

Identifying causal parameters from observational data is fraught with subtleties due to the issues of selection bias and confounding. In addition, more complex questions of interest, such as effects of treatment on the treated and mediated effects may not always be identified even in data where treatment assignment is known and under investigator control, or may be identified under one causal model but not another. Increasingly complex effects of interest, coupled with a…

高斯转换机制模型中潜在结果相关系数的推断AI 解读

We propose estimators of sharp bounds on the correlation coefficient between potential outcomes in the Gaussian switching regime model and develop an asymptotically uniformly valid and non-conservative confidence set for the true correlation coefficient. A boundary-interior-category selection procedure is proposed to deal with discontinuity of the pointwise asymptotic distribution of estimators of the sharp bounds. Our confidence set is easy to implement: it takes the form…