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利用工具变量校正二元解释变量的误分类AI 解读

Estimators that exploit an instrumental variable to correct for misclassification in a binary regressor typically assume that the misclassification rates are invariant across all values of the instrument.We show this assumption is invalid in routine empirical settings.We derive a new estimator which allows misclassification rates to vary across values of the instrumental variable.Our key identifying assumption, that the sum of misclassification rates remains constant across…

配对实验中不完全依从下的推断AI 解读

This article studies inference for the local average treatment effect in randomized controlled trials with imperfect compliance where treatment status is determined according to “matched pairs.” By “matched pairs,” we mean that units are sampled iid from the population of interest, paired according to observed, baseline covariates and finally, within each pair, one unit is selected at random for treatment. Under weak assumptions governing the quality of the pairings, we…

区组随机实验与再随机化实验中 Lasso 调整的设计型理论AI 解读

Blocking, a special case of rerandomization, is routinely implemented in the design stage of randomized experiments to balance the baseline covariates. This study proposes a regression adjustment method based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to efficiently estimate the average treatment effect in randomized block experiments with high-dimensional covariates. We derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator and outline the conditions…

均值泛函估计的改进分治方法及其平均处理效应应用AI 解读

Mean estimation is an important issue in statistical inference and machine learning. We are concerned with estimating mean functional that is a function of several nonparametric functions when there is a large amount of observations. Directly estimating such mean functional through nonparametric smoothing has the complexity of at least a quadratic order of the sample size, which is computationally prohibitive for massive data. The divide-and-conquer approach are thus readily…

一般缺失模式下高维因子模型的推断AI 解读

This paper establishes the inferential theory for the least squares estimation of large factor models with missing data. We propose a unified framework for asymptotic analysis of factor models that covers a wide range of missing patterns, including heterogenous random missing, selection on covariates/factors/loadings, block/staggered missing, mixed frequency and ragged edge. We establish the average convergence rates of the estimated factor space and loading space, the limit…

交互固定效应与短面板下的动态处理效应估计AI 解读

We study the estimation and inference of dynamic average treatment effect parameters when parallel trends holds conditional on interactive fixed effects and where units enter into treatment at different time periods. Our proposed generalized method of moments estimator consists of two parts: first, we estimate the unobserved time effects by applying the fixed-T consistent quasi-long-differencing estimator of Ahn et al., (2013) to the never-treated group. Second, we estimate…

成对有效的工具变量AI 解读

Finding valid instruments is difficult. We propose Validity Set Instrumental Variable (VSIV) estimation, a method for estimating local average treatment effects (LATEs) in heterogeneous causal effect models when the instruments are partially invalid. We consider settings with pairwise valid instruments, that is, instruments that are valid for a subset of instrument value pairs. VSIV estimation exploits testable implications of instrument validity to remove invalid pairs and…

信任作为进入壁垒：金融科技采用的证据AI 解读

This paper studies the role of trust in incumbent lenders (banks) as an entry barrier to emerging FinTech lenders in credit markets. The empirical setting exploits the outbreak of the Wells Fargo scandal as a negative shock to borrowers’ trust in banks. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I find that increased exposure to the Wells Fargo scandal leads to an increase in the probability of borrowers using FinTech as mortgage originators. Utilizing political…

2024年 Denis Sargan 计量经济学奖AI 解读

The editors1 of The Econometrics Journal decided to award the 2024 Denis Sargan Econometrics Prize to Rahul Singh (Harvard) and Liyang Sun (CEMFI and UCL) for their article “Double robustness for complier parameters and a semi-parametric test for complier characteristics” in the January 2024 issue of The Econometrics Journal.2 Suppose that we are interested in the effects of a binary treatment on some outcome and allow these effects to vary arbitrarily in the studied…

一步平滑样条工具变量回归AI 解读

Summary We extend nonparametric regression smoothing splines to a context where there is endogeneity and instrumental variables are available. Unlike popular existing estimators, the resulting estimator is one step and relies on a unique regularisation parameter. We derive rates of the convergence for the estimator and its first derivative, which are uniform in the support of the endogenous variable. We also address the issue of imposing monotonicity in estimation and extend…

信息性抽样下的半参数自适应估计AI 解读

In probability sampling, sampling weights are often used to remove selection bias in the sample. The Horvitz–Thompson estimator is well known to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed; however, it is not necessarily efficient. This study derives the semiparametric efficiency bound for various target parameters by considering the survey weights as random variables and consequently proposes two semiparametric estimators with working models on the survey weights.…

条件分位数处理效应异质性的非参数检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a nonparametric test to assess whether there exist heterogeneous quantile treatment effects (QTEs) of an intervention on the outcome of interest across different sub-populations defined by covariates of interest. Specifically, a consistent test statistic based on the Cramér–von Mises type criterion is developed to test if the treatment has a constant quantile effect for all sub-populations defined by covariates of interest. Under some regularity…

美国最低工资与青少年生育AI 解读

ABSTRACT The minimum wage is increasingly viewed as an important, but often neglected, tool for improving public health outcomes. Using data from the period 2003–2019 and a stacked difference‐in‐differences regression model that accounts for dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects, we explore the relationship between minimum wages and teenage childbearing in the United States. We find no evidence of a systematic, negative relationship between minimum wages and…

处理交互作用与内生参与AI 解读

ABSTRACT We study causal inference in randomized experiments (or quasi‐experiments) following a factorial design. There are two treatments, denoted and , and units are randomly assigned to one of four categories: treatment alone, treatment alone, joint treatment, or none. Allowing for endogenous non‐compliance with the two binary instruments representing the intended assignment, as well as unrestricted interference across the two treatments, we derive the causal…

处理状态误分类下的双重差分AI 解读

ABSTRACT This paper studies identification and estimation of the average treatment effect of a latent treated subpopulation in difference‐in‐difference designs when the observed treatment is differentially (or endogenously) mismeasured for the truth. Common examples include misreporting and mistargeting. We propose a two‐step estimator that corrects for the empirically common phenomenon of one‐sided misclassification in the treatment status. The solution uses a single…

簇刀切工具变量估计AI 解读

Abstract Researchers commonly use jackknife-based instrumental variables estimators to eliminate the many-instruments bias of two-stage least squares. Where inference must be clustered, however, the jackknife fails to eliminate the bias. We propose a cluster-jackknife approach in which first-stage predicted values for each observation are constructed from a regression that leaves out the observation’s entire cluster. The cluster-jackknife instrumental variables estimator…

阈值政策设计中的遗憾分析AI 解读

Threshold policies are decision rules that assign treatments based on whether an observable characteristic exceeds a certain threshold. They are widespread across multiple domains, including welfare programs, taxation, and clinical medicine. This paper examines the problem of designing threshold policies using experimental data, when the goal is to maximize the population welfare. First, I characterize the regret – a measure of policy optimality – of the Empirical Welfare…

不稳定环境下的分位数格兰杰因果关系AI 解读

We propose a new framework for assessing Granger causality in quantiles in unstable environments, for a fixed quantile or over a continuum of quantile levels. Our proposed test statistics are consistent against fixed alternatives, they have nontrivial power against local alternatives, and they are pivotal in certain important special cases. In addition, we show the validity of a bootstrap procedure when asymptotic distributions depend on nuisance parameters. Monte Carlo…

协变量自适应随机化下多回归量的调整AI 解读

Our paper discovers a new trade-off of using regression adjustments (RAs) in causal inference under covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs). On one hand, RAs can improve the efficiency of causal estimators by incorporating information from covariates that are not used in the randomization. On the other hand, RAs can degrade estimation efficiency due to their estimation errors, which are not asymptotically negligible when the number of regressors is of the same order as the…

机器学习应助推谁：学生资助续申请实验中的因果与预测定向AI 解读

In many settings, interventions may be more effective for some individuals than for others, so that targeting interventions may be beneficial. We analyze the value of targeting in the context of a large-scale field experiment with over 53,000 college students, where the goal was to use “nudges” to encourage students to renew their financial-aid applications before a non-binding deadline. We begin with baseline approaches to targeting. First, we target based on a causal…

使用非线性筛方法推断时间序列非参数条件矩限制AI 解读

This paper studies estimation of and inference on dynamic nonparametric conditional moment restrictions of high dimensional variables for weakly dependent data, where the unknown functions of endogenous variables can be approximated via nonlinear sieves such as neural networks and Gaussian radial bases. The true unknown functions and their sieve approximations are allowed to be in general weighted function spaces with unbounded supports, which is important for time series…

高效估计分位数处理效应的协变量调整响应自适应实验AI 解读

In program evaluation studies, understanding the heterogeneous distributional impacts of a program beyond the average effect is crucial. Quantile treatment effect (QTE) provides a natural measure to capture such heterogeneity. While much of the existing work for estimating QTE has focused on analyzing observational data based on untestable causal assumptions, little work has gone into designing randomized experiments specifically for estimating QTE. In this manuscript, we…

协变量自适应随机化下的分位数异质处理效应检验AI 解读

In economic studies and clinical trials , it is prevalent to observe heterogeneous treatment effects that vary depending on the relative locations of units in the distribution of responses. In this study, we propose using quantile regression to estimate and conduct inference for conditional quantile treatment effects (cQTEs) in covariate-adaptive randomized experiments. First, we present sufficient conditions for consistently estimating the cQTEs, concerning the bias due to…

基于随机森林的分位数控制法AI 解读

This paper studies robust inference procedure for treatment effects in panel data with flexible relationship across units via the random forest method. The key contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we propose a direct construction of prediction intervals for the treatment effect by exploiting the information of the joint distribution of the cross-sectional units using random forest. In particular, we propose a Quantile Control Method (QCM) using the Quantile Random…