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贝叶斯网络中的参数更新AI 解读

A Bayes network is a directed acyclic graph in which the links are quantified by fixed conditional probabilities and the nodes represent random variables. The primary use of the network is to provide an efficient method for updating conditional probabilities in the graph. We consider the consequences of using the network as the computational device for updating parameter estimates in the dynamic linear model, a discrete time Bayesian model. We show that using the network…

出口导向增长假说适用于工业化国家吗？AI 解读

This paper tries to establish whether a causal link between exports and productivity exists for four developed market economies based on cointegration and Granger-causality techniques. These techniques allow serious problems encountered in previous attempts to examine this relationship to be overcome, while recent trade theory suggests that the relationship between trade and productivity is fundamentally ambiguous. The findings of the econometric analysis suggest that an…

多元动态线性变量误差模型的可识别性AI 解读

This article considers multivariate causal transfer function systems with latent stationary inputs and outputs. Their observation is assumed to be disturbed by errors in variables (EV). The main identification results for such models so far consist of structure theory. Derived are descriptions of classes of EV transfer function systems compatible with given covariance structures of the observed variables under various causality constraints. The case of unique determination…

双因素混合模型的秩方法AI 解读

The test problem of fixed treatment effects is considered in the two-factor mixed model with interaction and unequal cell frequencies when the classical assumptions of normality do not hold. An explicit form of a test statistic is derived using a partial rank transform (ranking all observations within each block), and the asymptotic distribution of the statistic is determined under the assumption that the number of blocks tends to infinity and the cell frequencies are…

双因素混合模型的秩检验方法AI 解读

The test problem of fixed treatment effects is considered in the two-factor mixed model with interaction and unequal cell frequencies when the classical assumptions of normality do not hold. An explicit form of a test statistic is derived using a partial rank transform (ranking all observations within each block), and the asymptotic distribution of the statistic is determined under the assumption that the number of blocks tends to infinity and the cell frequencies are…

多变量动态线性变量测量误差模型的可识别性AI 解读

This article considers multivariate causal transfer function systems with latent stationary inputs and outputs. Their observation is assumed to be disturbed by errors in variables (EV). The main identification results for such models so far consist of structure theory. Derived are descriptions of classes of EV transfer function systems compatible with given covariance structures of the observed variables under various causality constraints. The case of unique determination…

区组设计中双重处理与单一处理的比较AI 解读

Experiments having two treatment factors and one blocking factor are considered in which a particular combination of treatment factor levels must be excluded. The motivation for the work is a medical trial of two drugs in which a double placebo cannot be administered on ethical grounds. The contrasts of interest compare the effects of having both treatment factors at nonzero labelled levels with the effects of having only one treatment factor at a nonzero labelled level. A…

用加速寿命模型调整协变量的序贯对数秩检验AI 解读

This paper presents a simple sequential method for comparing two treatments in randomized clinical trials which allows for the adjustment of other covariates with the accelerated life model. The new procedure is the same as the ordinary sequential log rank test except that the test statistic is calculated on an ‘adjusted’ time scale. This covariate adjustment can lead to more efficient designs of group sequential trials especially when the effects of covariates being…

入学年龄对教育程度的影响：结合两样本矩的工具变量应用AI 解读

We present a model in which compulsory school attendance laws, which typically require school attendance until a specified birthday, induce a relationship between years of schooling and age at school entry. Variation in school starting age created by children's dates of birth provides a natural experiment for estimating the effect of age at school entry. Because no large data set contains information on both age at school entry and educational attainment, we use an…

存在混淆因素时的时变加速失效时间模型估计AI 解读

Cox & Oakes (1984, p. 66) introduced the ‘strong version’ of the accelerated failure time model with time-dependent exposures. We provide conditions under which this model could be used to estimate, from observational data, the causal effect of a time-varying exposure or treatment on time to an event of interest in the presence of time-dependent confounding variables. We propose a class of semiparametric tests and estimators for the model parameters. This class contains an…

利用倾向建模从初步数据推算：收入与税收统计应用AI 解读

This article proposes and evaluates two new methods of reweighting preliminary data to obtain estimates more closely approximating those derived from the final data set. In our motivating example, the preliminary data are an early sample of tax returns, and the final data set is the sample after all tax returns have been processed. The new methods estimate a predicted propensity for late filing for each return in the advance sample and then poststratify based on these…

家庭生育决策建模：非线性联立 probit 模型AI 解读

This article proposes new methods for modeling household fertility decisions. Much of the demographic literature on this subject suggests that decisions relating to fertility are influenced by the orientations (attitudes, desires, intentions) of both husbands and wives, but the methods used in previous work do not indicate how wife's (husband's) orientation influences husband's (wife's) orientation, nor how these separate phenomena are combined to produce a joint decision.…

青少年时期家庭结构对高中毕业影响的不同估计AI 解读

Many studies have reported significant empirical associations between family structure during childhood and children's outcomes later in life. It may be that living in a nonintact family has adverse consequences for children. On the other hand, it may be that some unobserved process jointly determines family structure and children's outcomes. How then should one interpret the empirical evidence on the relationship between family structure and children's outcomes? The answer…

家庭生育决策建模：非线性联立Probit模型AI 解读

This article proposes new methods for modeling household fertility decisions. Much of the demographic literature on this subject suggests that decisions relating to fertility are influenced by the orientations (attitudes, desires, intentions) of both husbands and wives, but the methods used in previous work do not indicate how wife's (husband's) orientation influences husband's (wife's) orientation, nor how these separate phenomena are combined to produce a joint decision.…

嵌套回归模型族中条件风险比的信息界AI 解读

SUMMARY Information bounds are obtained for a parametric treatment effect in a nested family of models for the conditional distribution of survival given confounding variables. The family extends from the fully parametric Weibull model to a completely nonparametric model for right-censored data and includes the Cox model and the stratified version of it. It is shown that, in certain special cases, there is no loss of information about the treatment effect when going from a…

正态分布下线性倾向得分匹配效果的刻画AI 解读

Matched sampling is a standard technique for controlling bias in observational studies due to specific covariates. Since Rosenbaum & Rubin (1983), multivariate matching methods based on estimated propensity scores have been used with increasing frequency in medical, educational, and sociological applications. We obtain analytic expressions for the effect of matching using linear propensity score methods with normal distributions. These expressions cover cases where the…

配对数据中的处理效应异质性AI 解读

Data from matched pairs are often analysed under the assumption that treatment effects are homogeneous. We develop tests of this assumption, with Poisson and binomial examples. Mixture models for inference when overdispersion is present are investigated, with stress on matched pairs of counts.

利用加速寿命模型调整协变量的序贯对数秩检验AI 解读

This paper presents a simple sequential method for comparing two treatments in randomized clinical trials which allows for the adjustment of other covariates with the accelerated life model. The new procedure is the same as the ordinary sequential log rank test except that the test statistic is calculated on an ‘adjusted’ time scale. This covariate adjustment can lead to more efficient designs of group sequential trials especially when the effects of covariates being…

存在混杂因素时的时变加速失效时间模型估计AI 解读

Cox & Oakes (1984, p. 66) introduced the ‘strong version’ of the accelerated failure time model with time-dependent exposures. We provide conditions under which this model could be used to estimate, from observational data, the causal effect of a time-varying exposure or treatment on time to an event of interest in the presence of time-dependent confounding variables. We propose a class of semiparametric tests and estimators for the model parameters. This class contains an…

右删失两样本处理效应一般估计量的大样本性质AI 解读

The estimation of the treatment effect in the two-sample problem with right censoring is of interest in survival analysis. In this article we consider both the location shift model and the scale change model. We establish the large-sample properties of a generalized Hodges-Lehmann type estimator. The strong consistency is established under the minimal possible conditions. The asymptotic normality is also obtained without imposing any conditions on the censoring mechanisms.…

处理组与对照组曲线估计的信号提取方法AI 解读

Suppose that the response of a group of subjects, which we call the control group, is monitored over time. At a given time after the start of the experiment, the experimenter intervenes and applies a treatment to a subset of the group. We propose a signal extraction approach to the simultaneous estimation of the treatment and control mean response curves, and their rates of change, imposing a smooth transition constraint between the two curves at the time of intervention. By…

混沌系统的似然与贝叶斯预测AI 解读

There has recently been considerable interest in both applied disciplines and in mathematics, as well as in the popular science literature, in the areas of nonlinear dynamical systems and chaotic processes. By a nonlinear, deterministic dynamical system, we mean a time series in which, starting at some initial condition, the values of the series are some fixed, nonlinear function of the previous states. One of the more intriguing aspects of these models is their propensity…

混沌系统的似然与贝叶斯预测AI 解读

There has recently been considerable interest in both applied disciplines and in mathematics, as well as in the popular science literature, in the areas of nonlinear dynamical systems and chaotic processes. By a nonlinear, deterministic dynamical system, we mean a time series in which, starting at some initial condition, the values of the series are some fixed, nonlinear function of the previous states. One of the more intriguing aspects of these models is their propensity…

严重删失数据下处理效应的一般估计量AI 解读

A generalized Hodges-Lehmann type estimator for the treatment effect in the two-sample problem with right censoring, is proposed based on an inverse-quantile-type idea using truncated versions of the Kaplan-Meier estimators over the subspace where they are consistent. Its strong consistency and asymptotic normality can be obtained, under no conditions on the uninformative censorings, and the resulting variance is easily estimable from the data. In simulation studies the…