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受污染多期教育实验的处理效应估计：缩小班级规模的动态影响AI 解读

This paper introduces an empirical strategy to estimate dynamic treatment effects in randomized trials that provide treatment in multiple stages and in which various noncompliance problems arise, such as attrition and selective transitions between treatment and control groups. Our approach is applied to the highly influential four-year randomized class size study, Project STAR. We find benefits from attending small classes in all cognitive subject areas in kindergarten and…

普通教育与职业培训：转型经济体的证据AI 解读

This paper examines the relative benefits of general education and vocational training during Romania's transition to a market economy. We examine a 1973 educational reform that shifted a large proportion of students from vocational training to general education. Using census and household survey data, we analyze the effect of this policy with a regression discontinuity design. We find that men affected by the policy are significantly less likely to work in manual or…

工资支付违约中的互补性与惯例AI 解读

We present and estimate a model with strategic complementarities in firms' choices of on-time or delayed wage payment. Linked employer-employee panel data from Russia facilitate identification of the endogenous interactions through fixed effects for firms, workers, and local labor markets, and instrumental variables based on policy interventions. The estimated reaction function displays strongly positive neighborhood effects, and the estimated feedback loops-worker quits,…

企业避税与公司价值AI 解读

Do corporate tax avoidance activities advance shareholder interests? This paper tests alternative theories of corporate tax avoidance using unexplained differences between income reported to capital markets and to tax authorities. OLS estimates indicate that the effect of tax avoidance on firm value is a function of firm governance, as predicted by an agency perspective on corporate tax avoidance. Instrumental variables estimates based on exogenous changes in tax regulations…

追随德国：利用国际货币联系估计货币政策的经济效应AI 解读

Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority makes it difficult to estimate the effect of monetary policy interventions on output. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on quarterly real output for several European countries, using German interest rates as the instrument. These estimates confirm a strong forward-looking bias in least squares estimates that persists even conditional on standard controls for the history…

同方差与异方差过度识别线性模型的改进 JIVE 估计量AI 解读

We introduce two simple new variants of the jackknife instrumental variables (JIVE) estimator for overidentified linear models and show that they are superior to the existing JIVE estimator, significantly improving on its small-sample-bias properties. We also compare our new estimators to existing Nagar (1959) type estimators. We show that, in models with heteroskedasticity, our estimators have superior properties to both the Nagar estimator and the related B2SLS estimator…

Researchers have increasingly realized the need to account for within-group dependence in estimating standard errors of regression parameter estimates. The usual solution is to calculate cluster-robust standard errors that permit heteroskedasticity and within-cluster error correlation, but presume that the number of clusters is large. Standard asymptotic tests can over-reject, however, with few (five to thirty) clusters. We investigate inference using cluster bootstrap-t…

评估“解放的引擎”：家用电器与女性劳动参与AI 解读

The secular rise in female labor force participation, highlighted in the recent macroeconomics literature on growth and structural change, has been associated with the declining price and wider availability of home appliances. This paper uses a new and unique country data set on the price of home appliances to test its impact on female labor supply. We assess the role of the price of appliances in raising participation by comparing it to other structural determinants such as…

政府补助支持与出口活动AI 解读

This paper investigates whether government support can act to increase exporting activity. We use a uniquely rich data set on Irish manufacturing plants and employ an empirical strategy that combines a nonparametric matching procedure with a difference-in-differences estimator in order to deal with the potential selection problem inherent in the analysis. Our results suggest that if grants are large enough, they can encourage already exporting firms to compete more…

空间政策实验中的处理效应估计：乌干达小额信贷应用AI 解读

This paper demonstrates a method for estimating treatment effects in spatial tests, utilizing a second control group to measure unexplained spatial phenomena. The technique is implemented on two innovations in Ugandan microfinance, and we measure the ways in which concurrent shocks such as an Ebola outbreak and a contentious presidential election altered outcomes differentially across regions. By correcting for this spatial heterogeneity, we measure the impact of the…

利用州行政数据衡量项目绩效AI 解读

We use administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of earnings impact estimates for a job training program based on alternative nonexperimental methods. We consider regression adjustment, Mahalanobis distance matching, and various methods using propensity-score matching, examining both cross-sectional estimates and difference-in-difference estimates. Specification tests suggest that the difference-in-difference estimator may provide a better measure of…

外资收购对就业与工资的影响：来自芬兰生产单位的证据AI 解读

This paper examines the effect of foreign acquisition on wages and employment of different skill groups using panel data on Finnish establishments for 1988-2001. Exploiting the availability of a rich set of preacquisition controls, we use various regression and propensity-score matching methods. The results indicate that foreign acquisition has a positive effect on wages. The magnitude of this effect increases with the level of schooling of the workers. The wage increase is…

生命周期消费：消费者支出调查数据的事实AI 解读

This paper uses Consumer Expenditure Survey data and a seminonparametric statistical model to estimate life cycle profiles of consumption, controlling for demographics, cohort, and time effects. We construct age profiles for total and nondurable consumption as well as expenditure patterns for consumer durables. Special emphasis is placed on the comparison of different approaches to control for changes in demographics over the life cycle. We find significant humps over the…

股票持有者比非持有者更有效地分担风险吗？AI 解读

This paper analyzes the extent of risk-sharing among stockholders and nonstockholders. To evaluate the empirical importance of market incompleteness, it is essential to determine whether idiosyncratic shocks are important for the wealthy who have access to better insurance opportunities, but also face different risks, than the average household. We study a model where each period households decide whether to participate in the stock market by paying a fixed cost. Due to this…

We examine inference in panel data when the number of groups is small, as is typically the case for difference-in-differences estimation and when some variables are fixed within groups. In this case, standard asymptotics based on the number of groups going to infinity provide a poor approximation to the finite sample distribution. We show that in some cases the t-statistic is distributed as t and propose simple two-step estimators for these cases. We apply our analysis to…

污染治理成本与美国各州外商直接投资流入：非参数再评估AI 解读

Keller and Levinson (2002) utilize state-level panel data on inflows of foreign direct investment along with an innovative measure of relative pollution abatement costs to assess the impact of environmental stringency on capital flows. Using standard parametric panel data models, the authors find moderate evidence that capital flows are sensitive to abatement costs. Using recently developed nonparametric methods, we assess the robustness of this conclusion. The nonparametric…

高出生率会阻碍经济增长吗？AI 解读

This paper examines the impact of the birth rate on economic growth by using a panel data set of 28 provinces in China over twenty years. Because China's one-child policy applied only to the Han Chinese but not to minorities, this unique affirmative policy allows us to use the proportion of minorities in a province as an instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of the birth rate on economic growth. We find that the birth rate has a negative impact on economic…

抗击疟疾：等待“神奇”疫苗时应预防战争AI 解读

The World Health Organization estimates that 300 million clinical cases of malaria occur annually and observed that during the 80s and part of the 90s its incidence increased. In this paper, we explore the influence of refugees from civil wars on the incidence of malaria in the refugee-receiving countries. Using civil wars as an instrumental variable, we show that for each 1,000 refugees there are between 2,000 and 2,700 cases of malaria in the refugee-receiving country. On…

美国各地的增长与趋同：县级数据证据AI 解读

We use U.S. county data (3,058 observations) and 41 conditioning variables to study growth and convergence. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) and three-stage least squares with instrumental variables (3SLS-IV), we report on the full sample and metro, nonmetro, and and regional samples: (1) OLS yields convergence rates around 2%; 3SLS yields 6%-8%; (2) convergence rates vary (for example, the Southern rate is 2.5 times the Northeastern rate); (3) federal, state, and local…

经验相似性AI 解读

An agent is asked to assess a real-valued variable Yp based on certain characteristics Xp = (Xp-super-1, ..., Xp-super-m), and on a database consisting of Xi-super-1, ... Xi-super-m, Yi) for i = 1, ..., n. A possible approach to combine past observations of X and Y with the current values of X to generate an assessment of Y is similarity-weighted averaging. It suggests that the predicted value of Y, Ȳp-super-s, be the weighted average of all previously observed values Yi,…

理解本质异质性模型中的工具变量AI 解读

This paper examines the properties of instrumental variables (IV) applied to models with essential heterogeneity, that is, models where responses to interventions are heterogeneous and agents adopt treatments (participate in programs) with at least partial knowledge of their idiosyncratic response. We analyze two-outcome and multiple-outcome models, including ordered and unordered choice models. We allow for transition-specific and general instruments. We generalize previous…

智慧城市：生活质量、生产率与人力资本的增长效应AI 解读

From 1940 to 1990, a 10% increase in a metropolitan area's concentration of college-educated residents was associated with a 0.8% increase in subsequent employment growth. Instrumental variables estimates support a causal relationship between college graduates and employment growth, but show no evidence of an effect of high school graduates. Using data on growth in wages, rents, and house values, I calibrate a neoclassical city growth model and find that roughly 60% of the…

企业会从国际贸易中学习吗？AI 解读

Using patent citations as a proxy for the influence of foreign technology on French firms' patents, this paper finds that the inventions of importers are significantly more likely to be influenced by foreign technology than are the inventions of firms that do not import. Furthermore, importers' citations increase relative to similar firms after they start importing. Exporting, in contrast, is not significantly associated with citations to foreign patents. These results…

企业是否从国际贸易中学习？AI 解读

Using patent citations as a proxy for the influence of foreign technology on French firms' patents, this paper finds that the inventions of importers are significantly more likely to be influenced by foreign technology than are the inventions of firms that do not import. Furthermore, importers' citations increase relative to similar firms after they start importing. Exporting, in contrast, is not significantly associated with citations to foreign patents. These results…