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照料年迈父母与欧洲成熟女性的就业状态AI 解读

We study the prevalence of informal caregiving to elderly parents by their mature daughters in Europe and the links between parental health, intense (daily) caregiving, and the employment status of daughters. We group data from SHARE into three country pools (North, Central, and South), which differ in the availability of public formal care services and female labor market attachment. There is a strong North-South gradient in the (positive) effect of parental ill health on…

华盛顿共识已死？增长、开放与1970至2000年代的大自由化AI 解读

Abstract According to the Washington Consensus, developing countries' growth would benefit from reductions in barriers to trade. However, the empirical basis for judging trade reforms is weak. Econometrics are mostly ad hoc, results are typically not judged against models, policies are poorly measured, and most studies are based on pre-1990 experience. We address these concerns by employing a model with capital and intermediate goods, compiling new disaggregated tariff…

最后一期房贷偿还后的消费平滑：检验幅度假说AI 解读

Abstract We examine whether the magnitude of an anticipated income change affects consumption smoothing (the magnitude hypothesis). Although this hypothesis has been discussed for fifty years, we are one of the first to provide formal statistical evidence to support it. We consider the natural experiment of an individual's final mortgage payment, an anticipated income change, and examine how it affects credit card expenditure. We can identify causality because the dates of…

竞争政策与生产率增长：一项实证评估AI 解读

Abstract This paper estimates the impact of competition policy on total factor productivity growth for 22 industries in twelve OECD countries over 1995 to 2005. We find a positive and significant effect of competition policy as measured by created indexes. We provide results based on instrumental variables estimators and heterogeneous effects to support the causal nature of the established link. The effect is particularly strong for specific aspects of competition policy…

南非的 HIV 感染状况与劳动力市场参与AI 解读

We use econometric methods based on the propensity score to estimate the causal effect of HIV status on employment outcomes in South Africa. Relying on rich data from a national survey, which included HIV testing, we control for systematic differences between HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals. We provide the first nationally representative estimates of the impact of HIV status on employment outcomes for southern Africa. Being HIV positive is associated with an…

存在聚类时非参数处理效应估计量的方差AI 解读

Nonparametric estimators of treatment effects are often applied in settings where clustering may be important. We provide a general methodology for consistently estimating the variance of a large class of nonparametric estimators, including the simple matching estimator, in the presence of clustering. Software for implementing our variance estimator is available in Stata.

货币模型的意外比较性质：来自新模型数据库的结果AI 解读

In this paper we investigate the comparative properties of empirically-estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy. We make use of a new database of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models: the Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2005) model, the Smets and Wouters (2007) model, and the Taylor (1993a) model. Although the three models differ in terms of structure, estimation method, sample period, and data vintage, we find surprisingly…

大学费用与学位完成时间：来自学费断点的证据AI 解读

University tuition typically remains constant throughout the years of enrollment while delayed degree completion is increasingly a problem for academic institutions around the world. Theory suggests that if continuation tuition were raised, the probability of late graduation would be reduced. Using a regression discontinuity design on data from Bocconi University in Italy, we show that a 1,000 euro increase in continuation tuition reduces the probability of late graduation…

不完美工具变量下的识别AI 解读

Dealing with endogenous regressors is a central challenge of applied research. The standard solution is to use instrumental variables that are assumed to be uncorrelated with unobservables. We instead allow the instrumental variable to be correlated with the error term, but we assume the correlation between the instrumental variable and the error term has the same sign as the correlation between the endogenous regressor and the error term and that the instrumental variable…

经济增长的决定因素：贝叶斯面板数据方法AI 解读

Model uncertainty hampers consensus on the key determinants of economic growth. Some recent cross-country cross-sectional analyses have employed Bayesian model averaging to tackle the issue of model uncertainty. This paper extends that approach to panel data models with country-specific fixed effects in order to simultaneously address model uncertainty and endogeneity issues. The empirical findings suggest that in a panel setting, the most robust growth determinants are the…

统计生命价值：来自面板数据的证据AI 解读

We address long-standing concerns in the literature on compensating wage differentials: the econometric properties of the estimated value of statistical life (VSL) and the wide range of such estimates. We confront prominent econometric issues using panel data, a more accurate fatality risk measure, and systematic application of panel data estimators. Controlling for measurement error, endogeneity, latent individual heterogeneity possibly correlated with regressors, state…

残差统计量的一种替代渐近分析方法AI 解读

This paper presents an alternative method to derive the limiting distribution of residual-based statistics. Our method does not impose an explicit assumption of (asymptotic) smoothness of the statistic of interest with respect to the model's parameters and thus is especially useful in cases where such smoothness is difficult to establish. Instead, we use a locally uniform convergence in distribution condition, which is automatically satisfied by residual-based specification…

具有正态与Student-t新息的多元动态模型分布检验AI 解读

We derive Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio specification tests for the null hypotheses of multivariate normal and Student-t innovations using the generalized hyperbolic distribution as our alternative hypothesis. We decompose the corresponding Lagrange multiplier-type tests into skewness and kurtosis components. We also obtain more powerful one-sided Kuhn-Tucker versions that are equivalent to the likelihood ratio test, whose asymptotic distribution we provide.…

处理效应估计的因果图及其在有效协变量选择中的应用AI 解读

Careful examination of the structure determining treatment choice and outcomes, as advocated by Heckman (2008), is central to the design of treatment effect estimators and, in particular, proper choice of covariates. Here, we demonstrate how causal diagrams developed in the machine learning literature by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, but not so well known to economists, can play a key role in this examination by using these methods to give a detailed analysis of the choice…

局部投影脉冲响应估计量有多可靠？AI 解读

We compare the finite-sample performance of impulse response confidence intervals based on local projections (LPs) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models in linear stationary settings. We find that in small samples, the asymptotic LP interval often is less accurate than the bias-adjusted bootstrap VAR interval, notwithstanding its excessive average length. Although the asymptotic LP interval has adequate coverage in sufficiently large samples, its average length still far…

消除分组导致的基尼系数偏差的简单修正AI 解读

We propose a first-order bias correction term for the Gini index to reduce the bias due to grouping. It depends on only the number of individuals in each group and is derived from a measurement error framework. We also provide a formula for the remaining second-order bias. Both Monte Carlo and EU and U.S. empirical evidence show that the first-order correction reduces a considerable share of the bias, but that some remaining second-order bias is increasing in the variance.…

货币冲击的因果效应：基于多项倾向得分的半参数条件独立检验AI 解读

We develop semiparametric tests for conditional independence in time series models of causal effects. Our approach is motivated by empirical studies of monetary policy effects and is semiparametric in the sense that we model the process determining the distribution of treatment—the policy propensity score—but leave the model for outcomes unspecified. A conceptual innovation is that we adapt the cross-sectional potential outcomes framework to a time series setting. We also…

处理状态误分类与处理效应：英国教育回报的应用AI 解读

We study the impact of misreported treatment status on the estimation of causal treatment effects, focusing on applications where no additional information or repeated measurements are available. We first characterize the bias introduced by misclassification on the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) under a conditional independence assumption, in both a binary and a multiple-treatment setting. We find that the bias of matching-type estimators computed from…

双重差分模型中的分布恢复：选拔制与综合制中学教育比较AI 解读

We compare the effects of selective and nonselective secondary education on children's test scores, using British data from the National Child Development Study. Test scores are modeled as the output of an additive production function. An important input is the child's unobserved initial endowment, which may be correlated with the education system attended. In this model, we generalize the difference-in-differences approach and identify the entire counterfactual distribution…

帮助还是阻碍？大学补修教育对学业与劳动力市场结果的影响AI 解读

Providing remedial (also known as developmental) education is the primary way colleges cope with students who do not have the academic preparation needed to succeed in college-level courses. Remediation is widespread, with nearly one-third of entering freshmen taking remedial courses at an annual cost of at least $$1 billion. Despite its prevalence, there is uncertainty surrounding its short- and longer-run effects. This paper presents new evidence on this question using…

少量政策变化下的双重差分推断AI 解读

In difference-in-differences applications, identification of the key parameter often arises from changes in policy by a small number of groups. In contrast, typical inference assumes that the number of groups changing policy is large. We present an alternative inference approach for a small (finite) number of policy changers, using information from a large sample of nonchanging groups. Treatment effect point estimators are not consistent, but we can consistently estimate…

利用特征值经验分布确定因子数AI 解读

We develop a new estimator of the number of factors in the approximate factor models. The estimator works well even when the idiosyncratic terms are substantially correlated. It is based on the fact, established in the paper, that any finite number of the largest "idiosyncratic" eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix cluster around a single point. In contrast, all the "systematic" eigenvalues, the number of which equals the number of factors, diverge to infinity. The…

更便宜意味着更好吗？兼职教师对学生结果的影响AI 解读

Higher education has increasingly relied on part-time, adjunct instructors. Critics argue that adjuncts reduce educational quality because they often have less education than full-time professors. On the other hand, by specializing in teaching or being concurrently employed, adjuncts could enhance learning experiences. This paper quantifies how adjuncts affect subsequent student interest and course performance relative to full-time faculty using an instrumental variable…

两样本工具变量估计量AI 解读

Following an influential article by Angrist and Krueger (1992) on two-sample instrumental variables (TSIV) estimation, numerous empirical researchers have applied a computationally convenient two-sample two-stage least squares (TS2SLS) variant of Angrist and Krueger's estimator. In the two-sample context, unlike the single-sample situation, the IV and 2SLS estimators are numerically distinct. We derive and compare the asymptotic distributions of the two estimators and find…