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发达经济体就业保护放松与劳动份额AI 解读

Abstract This paper assesses the impact of job protection deregulation on the labor share in a sample of 26 advanced economies during the 1970–2013 period, using a newly constructed dataset of major reforms in this area. We employ a difference-in-differences identification strategy using two identifying assumptions grounded in theory—deregulation has larger effects in industries characterized by (i) a higher “natural” propensity to regularly adjust the workforce and (ii) a…

含 Berkson 测量误差的异质性需求函数估计AI 解读

Abstract Berkson errors are commonplace in empirical microeconomics. In consumer demand, this form of measurement error occurs when the price an individual pays is measured by the (weighted) average price paid by individuals in a group (e.g., a county) rather than the true transaction price. We show the importance of Berkson errors for demand estimation with nonseparable unobserved heterogeneity. We develop a consistent estimator using external information on the true price…

专利、数据独占与新药开发AI 解读

Abstract Pharmaceutical firms enjoy market exclusivity for new drugs from concurrent patent protection and exclusivity of the clinical trials data submitted for market approval. Patent invalidation during drug development renders data exclusivity the sole source of protection and shifts the period of market exclusivity. In instrumental variables regressions, we quantify the effect of a one-year reduction in expected market exclusivity on the likelihood of drug…

通过异方差识别的模型中的稳健推断AI 解读

Abstract Identification via heteroskedasticity exploits variance changes between regimes to identify parameters in simultaneous equations. Weak identification occurs when shock variances change very little or multiple variances change close to proportionally, making standard inference unreliable. I propose an F-test for weak identification in a common simple version of the model. More generally, I establish conditions for validity of nonconservative robust inference on…

处理效应异质时如何解释OLS估计目标：较小组获得较大权重AI 解读

Abstract Applied work often studies the effect of a binary variable (“treatment”) using linear models with additive effects. I study the interpretation of the OLS estimands in such models when treatment effects are heterogeneous. I show that the treatment coefficient is a convex combination of two parameters, which under certain conditions can be interpreted as the average treatment effects on the treated and untreated. The weights on these parameters are inversely related…

一次性与条件性失业保障政策的就业效应：来自巴西的证据AI 解读

Abstract Lump-sum job displacement policies (e.g., severance pay) are often presented as a better alternative to contingent policies (e.g., unemployment insurance) in the context of developing countries, under the rationale that the former are less harmful to formal employment as they do not incentivize substitution from formal to informal jobs. First, this paper provides original evidence on the employment effects of lump-sum income in the context of a developing country…

投入市场摩擦下的生产函数估计AI 解读

Abstract Behind many production function estimators lies a crucial assumption that the firm's choice of intermediate inputs depends only on observed choices of other inputs and on unobserved productivity. This assumption fails when market frictions distort the firm's input choices. I derive a test for the assumption, which is rejected in several industries. Using weak identification asymptotics, I show that when the assumption fails, a simplified dynamic panel estimator can…

考虑网络变化的处理效应AI 解读

Abstract Networks may rewire in response to interventions. We propose a measure of the treatment effect when an intervention affects the structure of a social network. We develop a treatment-response model that incorporates dynamic peer effects and provide its identification conditions and the associated instrumental-variable strategy. We illustrate our estimation procedure using a panel data set containing information on a financial network before and after a field…

少量大簇情形下的野生自助法AI 解读

Abstract This paper studies the wild bootstrap–based test proposed in Cameron, Gelbach, and Miller (2008). Existing analyses of its properties require that number of clusters is “large.” In an asymptotic framework in which the number of clusters is “small,” we provide conditions under which an unstudentized version of the test is valid. These conditions include homogeneity-like restrictions on the distribution of covariates. We further establish that a studentized version of…

内生社会网络中同伴效应的控制函数估计AI 解读

Abstract We propose methods of estimating the linear-in-means model of peer effects in which the peer group, defined by a social network, is endogenous in the outcome equation for peer effects. Endogeneity is due to unobservable individual characteristics that influence both link formation in the network and the outcome of interest. We propose two estimators of the peer effect equation that control for the endogeneity of the social connections using a control function…

存在协变量时的分位数处理效应AI 解读

This paper proposes a method to estimate unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) given one or more treatment variables, which may be discrete or continuous, even when it is necessary to condition on covariates. The estimator, generalized quantile regression (GQR), is developed in an instrumental variable framework for generality to permit estimation of unconditional QTEs for endogenous policy variables, but it is also applicable in the conditionally exogenous case.…

来自“迁往机会”实验的社区效应证据：社区质量的局部平均处理效应AI 解读

Abstract This paper estimates neighborhood effects on adult labor market outcomes using the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) housing mobility experiment. We propose and implement a new strategy for identifying transition-specific effects that exploits identification of the unobserved component of a neighborhood choice model. Estimated local average treatment effects (LATEs) are large, result from moves between the first and second deciles of the national distribution of…

货币政策对资产价格的时变影响AI 解读

This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I…

技能要求上升：劳动力充裕时雇主是否要求更高技能？AI 解读

Using a proprietary database of online job postings, we find that education and experience requirements rose during the Great Recession. These increases were larger in states and occupations that experienced greater increases in the supply of available workers. This finding is robust to controlling for local demand conditions and firm [Formula: see text] job-title fixed effects and using a natural experiment arising from troop withdrawals as an exogenous shock to labor…

按特征排序的投资组合：估计与推断AI 解读

Portfolio sorting is ubiquitous in the empirical finance literature, where it has been widely used to identify pricing anomalies. Despite its popularity, little attention has been paid to the statistical properties of the procedure. We develop a general framework for portfolio sorting by casting it as a nonparametric estimator. We present valid asymptotic inference methods and a valid mean square error expansion of the estimator leading to an optimal choice for the number of…

不完整数据下的有效GMM估计AI 解读

In the standard missing data model, data are either complete or completely missing. However, applied researchers face situations with an arbitrary number of strata of incompleteness. Examples include unbalanced panels and instrumental variables settings where some observations are missing some instruments. I propose a model for settings where observations may be incomplete, with an arbitrary number of strata of incompleteness. I derive a set of moment conditions that…

动态处理效应评估的非参数工具变量方法AI 解读

We develop an instrumental variable approach for identification of dynamic treatment effects on survival outcomes in the presence of dynamic selection, noncompliance, and right-censoring. The approach is nonparametric and does not require independence of observed and unobserved characteristics or separability assumptions. We propose estimation procedures and derive asymptotic properties. We apply our approach to evaluate a policy reform in which the pathway of unemployment…

网络干扰下的处理效应与溢出效应AI 解读

We study nonparametric and regression estimators of treatment and spillover effects when interference is mediated by a network. Inference is nonstandard due to dependence induced by treatment spillovers and network-correlated effects. We derive restrictions on the network degree distribution under which the estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal and show they can be verified under a strategic model of network formation. We also construct consistent variance…

多期限预测误差的时变不确定性建模AI 解读

We estimate uncertainty measures for point forecasts obtained from survey data, pooling information embedded in observed forecast errors for different forecast horizons. To track time-varying uncertainty in the associated forecast errors, we derive a multiple-horizon specification of stochastic volatility. We apply our method to forecasts for various macroeconomic variables from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Compared to simple variance approaches, our stochastic…

稀疏匹配数据下双向固定效应线性模型的估计与推断AI 解读

Models with multiway fixed effects are frequently used to address selection on unobservables. The data used for estimating these models often contain few observations per value of either indexing variable (sparsely matched data). I show that this sparsity has important implications for inference and propose an asymptotically valid inference method based on subsetting. Sparsity also has important implications for point estimation when covariates or instrumental variables are…

从附加福利到核心报酬：工会与员工薪酬AI 解读

Conventional wisdom suggests that labor unions raise worker wages, while the newer empirical literature finds only negligible earnings effects. I reconcile this apparent contradiction by arguing that collective bargaining targets fringe benefits. Using U.S. firm-level data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Multinational Enterprise Survey and Compustat, I exploit a regression discontinuity in majority rule union elections to compare changes in employee compensation…

实证经济学中正则化估计量的选择：机器学习的风险AI 解读

Abstract Many settings in empirical economics involve estimation of a large number of parameters. In such settings, methods that combine regularized estimation and data-driven choices of regularization parameters are useful. We provide guidance to applied researchers on the choice between regularized estimators and data-driven selection of regularization parameters. We characterize the risk and relative performance of regularized estimators as a function of the…

如何利用经济理论改进估计：向理论约束收缩AI 解读

Abstract We propose to use economic theories to construct shrinkage estimators that perform well when the theories' empirical implications are approximately correct but perform no worse than unrestricted estimators when the theories' implications do not hold. We implement this construction in various settings, including labor demand and wage inequality, and estimation of consumer demand. We provide asymptotic and finite sample characterizations of the behavior of the…

通过平滑局部投影估计脉冲响应AI 解读

Local projections (LP) is a popular methodology for the estimation of impulse responses (IR). Compared to the traditional VAR approach, LP allow for more flexible IR estimation by imposing weaker assumptions on the dynamics of the data. The nonparametric nature of LP comes at an efficiency cost, and in practice, the LP estimator may suffer from excessive variability. In this work, we propose an IR estimation methodology based on B-spline smoothing called smooth local…