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广义洛伦兹曲线的渐近分布无关统计推断AI 解读

This paper provides asymtotically distribution-free statistical inference procedures for generalized Lorenz curves. Given appropriate measures of income and the income recipient unit are chosen appropriately, the tests allow consensually valid statements regarding social welfare to be made from sample data on the basis of sound inferential procedures. More generally, the results presented here can be applied to test for second degree stochastic dominance. Copyright 1989 by…

Beginning with January of 1987, the consumer price indexes (CPIs) have been seasonally adjusted by the X-11 autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedure. This modification of the X-11 procedure was introduced following an empirical investigation into three aspects of seasonal adjustment methodology as applied to several CPI series--the choice of ARIMA models to fit and forecast those series, the improvements made by the ARIMA modification in terms of revision…

家庭面板数据质量评估：以收入动态面板研究为例AI 解读

Evidence from a number of methodological studies are used to assess the overall quality of data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Despite substantial cumulative non-response over the nearly two decades spanned by the study, the sample is found to maintain its representation of the nonimmigrant population of the United States. The most important reasons for this result are that the study's following rules insure that the sample replaces itself in the same manner…

Time series sometimes consist of count data in which the number of events occurring in a given time interval is recorded. Such data are necessarily nonnegative integers, and an assumption of a Poisson or negative binomial distribution is often appropriate. This article sets ups a model in which the level of the process generating the observations changes over time. A recursion analogous to the Kalman filter is used to construct the likelihood function and to make predictions…

贫困测度：一个与 Theil 不平等度量相关的指数AI 解读

A major problem that arises in measuring poverty is the adequate expression, in a poverty index, of the information from the incomes of individuals below the poverty line. This article evaluates several poverty indexes on the basis of their ability to satisfy five properties desirable for a poverty index. The only index that satisfies all five properties is one related to a Theil measure of inequality. Simulations show that this index and an index related to the coefficient…

刀切法方差估计的一般理论AI 解读

The delete-1 jackknife is known to give inconsistent variance estimators for nonsmooth estimators such as the sample quantiles. This well-known deficiency can be rectified by using a more general jackknife with $d$, the number of observations deleted, depending on a smoothness measure of the point estimator. Our general theory explains why jackknife works or fails. It also shows that (i) for "sufficiently smooth" estimators, the jackknife variance estimators with bounded $d$…

序贯临床试验结束后的治疗差异估计AI 解读

To reduce the number of patients needed to reach a conclusion in a clinical trial, a sequential trial design may be used. In theory the distribution of responses is biased when a sequential trial is stopped. The usual estimation methods of treatment difference applied in nonsequential situations are, therefore, not necessarily applicable following a sequential test. Whitehead (1983) proposed a method for estimating the treatment effect following some types of two-sample…

序贯临床试验结束后的治疗差异估计AI 解读

To reduce the number of patients needed to reach a conclusion in a clinical trial, a sequential trial design may be used. In theory the distribution of responses is biased when a sequential trial is stopped. The usual estimation methods of treatment difference applied in nonsequential situations are, therefore, not necessarily applicable following a sequential test. Whitehead (1983) proposed a method for estimating the treatment effect following some types of two-sample…

模拟与优化估计量的渐近理论AI 解读

A general central limit theorem is proved for estimators defined by minimization of the length of a vector-valued, random criterion function. No smoothness assumptions are imposed on the criterion function in order that the results might apply to a broad class of simulation estimators. Complete analyses of two simulation estimators, one introduced by A. Pakes (1986) and the other by D. McFadden (1989), illustrate the application of the general theorems. These examples…

无需数值积分的离散响应模型模拟矩估计方法AI 解读

This paper proposes a simple modification of a conventional generalized method of moments estimator for a discrete response model, replacing response probabilities that require numerical integration with estimators obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. This method of simulated moments does not require precise estimates of these probabilities, as the law of large numbers operating across observations controls simulation error, and, hence, can use simulations of practical size.…

摘要暂缺

部分识别的计量经济模型AI 解读

This paper studies a class of models where full identification is not necessarily assumed. We term such models partially identified. It is argued that partially identified systems are of practical importance since empirical investigators frequently proceed under conditions that are best described as apparent identification. One objective of the paper is to explore the properties of conventional statistical procedures in the context of identification failure. Our analysis…

随机效用假说与需求系统中的推断AI 解读

In this paper, the authors examine the consequences of adopting the random utility hypothesis as an approach for randomizing a system of demand equations. Random utility models are appealing since they allow the usual assumption of deterministic utility-maximizing behavior by each consumer to coexist with the apparent randomness across individuals that is exhibited by data. Their results show that the use of random utility models implies that the disturbances of the demand…

市场非均衡模型中的序列相关检验与其他设定分析AI 解读

The assumption of serial independence of disturbances is the starting point of most of the work done on analyzing market disequilibrium models. We derive tests for serial dependence given normality and homoscedasticity using the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test principle. Although the likelihood function under serial dependence is very complicated and involves multiple integrals of dimensions equal to the sample size, the test statistic we obtain through the LM principle is…

再就业概率与多次失业经历：偏似然方法AI 解读

An extended version of the mixed-proportional-hazards model is used to study the determinants of the conditional probability of reemployment of long-term unemployed young persons sampled in the first stage of the Australian National Longitudinal Survey. The survey data facilitate an econometric comparison between the effect of different factors on the conditional reemployment probability of those in their first unemployment spell with those who have experienced multiple…

分块弱可分性检验的蒙特卡洛研究AI 解读

Separability assumptions on functional structure have received a great deal of attention from econometricians and economic theorists because (1) separability provides the fundamental linkage between aggregation over goods and the maximization principles in economic theory, (2) separability provides the theoretical basis for partitioning the economy's structure into sectors and (3) separability provides a theoretical hypothesis, which can produce parameter restrictions,…

英国企业就业与产出决策的定性响应分析AI 解读

Abstract This paper investigates firms' employment and output decisions and presents some empirical evidence concerning the rationality of firms' expectations. The dymanic model is based on the assumptions of convex adjustment costs and monopolistic competition in the product market. The results are obtained using categorical information on individual firms contained in business surveys collected by the Confederation of British Industry. Ordered probit models are used to…

平滑与自助法AI 解读

Recent attention has focussed on possible improvements in performance of estimators which might flow from using the smoothed bootstrap. We point out that in a great many problems, such as those involving functions of vector means, any such improvements will be only second-order effects. However, we argue that substantial and significant improvements can occur in problems where local properties of underlying distributions play a decisive role. This situation often occurs in…

观察性研究中隐蔽偏差的置换检验：Holley 不等式与 Savage 格AI 解读

Randomized experiments and observational studies both attempt to estimate the effects produced by a treatment, but in observational studies, subjects are not randomly assigned to treatment or control. A theory of observational studies would closely resemble the theory for randomized experiments in all but one critical respect: In observational studies, the distribution of treatment assignments is not known. The problems that are special to observational studies revolve…

随机效应模型的正态性评估AI 解读

When one uses the unbalanced, mixed linear model $\mathbf{y}_i = \mathbf{X}_i\mathbf{\alpha} + \mathbf{Z}_i\mathbf{\beta}_i + \varepsilon_i, i = 1, \cdots, n$ to analyze data from longitudinal experiments with continuous outcomes, it is customary to assume $\varepsilon_i \sim_{\operatorname{ind}} \mathscr{N}(\mathbf{0}, \sigma^2\mathbf{I}_i)$ independent of $\mathbf{\beta}_i \sim_{\operatorname{iid}} \mathscr{N}(\mathbf{0,\Delta})$, where $\sigma^2$ and the elements of an…

基于局部中位数的核估计量的渐近性质AI 解读

The desire to make nonparametric regression robust leads to the problem of conditional median function estimation. Under appropriate regularity conditions, a sequence of local median estimators can be chosen to achieve the optimal rate of convergence $n^{-1/(2+d)}$ both pointwise and in the $L^q (1 \leq q < \infty)$ norm restricted to a compact. It can also be chosen to achieve the optimal rate of convergence $(n^{-1} \log n)^{1/(2+d)}$ in the $L^\infty$ norm restricted to a…

多项逻辑回归相对于有序逻辑回归的分类效率AI 解读

Classification procedures are useful for the prediction of a response (or outcome) as a result of knowledge of the levels of one or more independent (or predictor) variables. The procedure is said to classify the (possibly multivariate) observation to a level of the response variable. An example might be the prediction of whether an individual will be well, suffer a nonfatal heart attack, or suffer a fatal heart attack. This prediction might be made on the basis of the…

实验随机化与正态理论推断的有效性AI 解读

This article examines how randomization helps to validate model-based probability statements. The asymptotic validity of normal-theory tests for means in multivariate linear models is established under general conditions. Numerical results are presented showing how randomization provides a limited degree of robustness in small experiments. The conditional relevance of randomization is also discussed. Consider the following additive model for a comparative experiment: Y = θ +…

非参数政策分析AI 解读

This article considers the problem of predicting the mean effect of a change in the distribution of certain policy-related variables on a dependent variable (Y). This is conventionally done using a parametric model. If, however, the conditional expectation of Y, given policy and nonpolicy variables X, is unaltered by the policy intervention, and if the support of X after the policy intervention lies within the support of X before the intervention, then this analysis can be…