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不等间隔纵向数据中的序列相关AI 解读

Serial correlation in the within subject error structure in longitudinal data with unequally spaced observations is modelled using continuous time autoregressive moving averages. The models considered have both fixed and random effects in addition to serially correlated within subject errors. Two approaches are presented for calculating the exact likelihood for a model when the errors are Gaussian. The first calculates the covariance matrices for each subject for assumed…

利用截面、面板或二者结合估计线性模型的时变参数AI 解读

In this paper we consider the estimation of time-dependent parameters in linear models from panel data, cross-sections, or both. We determine the fraction of individuals that should be reinterviewed each period in order to minimize the variance of the most efficient estimator of linear combinations of the parameters. Moreover we derive simple sufficient conditions for the optimal fraction to be zero or one, respectively.

The results of forecasting experiments based on an error correction mechanism (ECM) model and various types of vector autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models are presented. A Bayesian error correction mechanism (BECM) model is also tested. This model represents a hybrid of the BVAR and ECM models. The results from experiments using fifty industries and monthly Ohio labor market data demonstrate that the ECM model produces forecasts with much…

工资收入与生育时点及间隔：瑞典纵向数据证据AI 解读

This paper considers the formulation, estimation, and evaluation of semiparametric multistates duration models with time-varying regressors and unobservables correlated over spells. The authors' models are applied to test a dynamic version of the neoclassical theory of fertility. Using Swedish data, they find that rising female wages over the lifecycle delay times to all conceptions, but barely affect childlessness. The authors estimate a model that predicts fertility…

最优化模型的拟合优度AI 解读

Conventional econometric tests of optimizing models typically involve embedding the optimizing model in a parametric specification and then examining the parametric restrictions imposed by the optimization hypothesis. The optimization hypothesis is rejected if the estimated parameters are significantly different, in the statistical sense, from the values implied by optimization. I argue that a more fruitful approach to testing optimizing behavior is to measure the departure…

服从 Gamma 分布的随机前沿模型AI 解读

We modify the stochastic frontier model of Aigner, Lovell, and Schmidt to allow the one-sided part of the disturbance to have a two-parameter Gamma distribution rather than the less flexible half-normal distribution. Maximum-likelihood estimation and the estimation of firm-specific inefficiency estimates require the evaluation of integrals which have no closed form and for which there are no polynomial approximations available. We consider two methods of computing these…

聚合指标有效性的检验AI 解读

Ths article develops a new approach for testing aggregation restrictions in estimated production-function and cost-function models. Rather than using the well-known separability conditions for the existence of an aggregate, this approach focuses on testng whether a particular aggregate is valid and develops empirically testable necessary and sufficient conditions for the validity of some known aggregation scheme. An empirical section examines the power of this test in the…

条件分位数的核估计与近邻估计AI 解读

Let $(X_1, Z_1), (X_2, Z_2), \ldots, (X_n, Z_n)$ be iid as $(X, Z), Z$ taking values in $R^1$, and for $0 < p < 1$, let $\xi_p(x)$ denote the conditional $p$-quantile of $Z$ given $X = x,$ i.e., $P(Z \leq \xi_p(x)\mid X = x) = p$. In this paper, kernel and nearest-neighbor estimators of $\xi_p(x)$ are proposed. In order to study the asymptotics of these estimates, Bahadur-type representations of the sample conditional quantiles are obtained. These representations are used to…

摘要暂缺

关于 Wei 临床试验偏置硬币设计的统计推断AI 解读

Wei (1988) analyzed data from a clinical trial in which an urn-sampling model was used to allocate patients to treatments. The trial resulted in 11 patients being allocated to the experimental treatment, all successes, and with one patient allocated to the control treatment, a failure. Wei analyzed these data using a randomization algorithm and concluded that the results were almost significant at p = 0·051. He asserted that an analysis which ignored the design and presumed…

Roy 模型的经验内容AI 解读

This paper explores the robustness of the essential economic conclusions of the Roy model of self-selection and income inequality to relaxation of its normality assumptions. A log concave version of the model reproduces most of the main results. Log convex cases offer counterexamples. The authors show that in a Roy economy, random assignment is inegalitarian and Pareto inefficient. They consider nonparametric identifiability of latent skill distributions with cross-section…

摘要暂缺

条件分位数约束下线性与一型删失回归模型的有效估计AI 解读

We consider the linear regression model with censored dependent variable, where the disturbance terms are restricted only to have zero conditional median (or other prespecified quantile) given the regressors and the censoring point. Thus, the functional form of the conditional distribution of the disturbances is unrestricted, permitting heteroskedasticity of unknown form. For this model, a lower bound for the asymptotic covariance matrix for regular estimators of the…

面板数据的有效估计：工具变量估计量的经验比较AI 解读

Abstract This paper attempts a replication of the Cornwell and Rupert (1988) study—hereafter CR. The CR study investigated the efficiency gains in a returns to schooling example by applying alternative sets of instrumental variables estimators for panel data regressions proposed by Hausman and Taylor (1981), Amemiya and MaCurdy (1986), and Breusch, Mizon, and Schmidt (1989). Corrections on the CR data set lead to changes in the legitimate set of instruments, when the time…

工会与英国私营部门经营单位的财务表现AI 解读

Abstract This paper considers the relationship between unions and financial performance using data from the 1980 and 1984 Workplace Industrial Relations Surveys. A qualitative indicator of financial performance is utilized and ordered probit estimates presented. These indicate that unionized establishments are characterized by lower performance levels than are non‐union concerns. The interface between union effects and relative market power is also explored and the ability…

利用美国企业数据重新检验投资q理论AI 解读

Abstract Investment models based on Tobin's q are theoretically appealing, but they have been an empirical disappointment when applied to aggregate time‐series data. This paper explores two potential explanations for the poor empirical performance of q investment models, problems arising from aggregation and imperfect competition. The results suggest that aggregation is responsible for spurious evidence of dynamic misspecification and at least partially responsible for an…

利用个体面板数据估计市场均衡搜索模型AI 解读

In this paper, the feasibility of estimating a Nash labor market equilibrium model using only information on workers is demonstrated. The equilibrium model, adapted from Albrecht and Axell (1984), is based on workers who are homogenous in terms of market productivity and heterogeneous in terms of nonmarket productivity, and on firms that are heterogeneous in terms of productive efficiency. The equilibrium model is contrasted with an unrestricted version of the model in terms…

利用微观数据估计需求系统：删失回归方法AI 解读

Demand systems estimation increasingly makes use of household-level microdata, mainly to measure the effects of demographic variables. Data based on these household-expenditure surveys present a major estimation problem. For any given household, many of the goods have zero consumption, implying a censored dependent variable. Techniques which do not take this censored dependent variable into account will yield biased results. We utilize a censored regression approach that is…

含有序不可观测变量的线性模型两步估计：公司债券应用AI 解读

This article proposes a two-step method for estimating the impact of bond indenture provisions and other financial variables on the risk and yields of investment-grade and speculative corporate bonds. In the first step, the default risk of bonds is estimated as a function of indenture provisions and the characteristics of bonds and the issuing firms by an ordered probit. In the second step, the effects of default risk and bond characteristics on yields are estimated after a…

Logit 模型中的对称性约束与可变规模报酬AI 解读

This article addresses two problems with earlier applications of the linear logit model of cost shares. The first problem is that symmetry holds only for one set of cost shares. In this article, an iterative, nonlinear estimation procedure is used to impose symmetry for all predicted shares. The second problem is that analytical expressions for the integrals of log-linear cost shares cannot be derived analytically, although they exist, given the continuity of the logit share…

工作离职的动态：联邦雇员案例AI 解读

Abstract In this paper we develop a model of workers' quit decisions . Using panel data on a sample of US Federal government employees we use maximum‐likelihood techniques to determine how much of the observed decline in quits with job tenure is a result of declining individual quit propensities (‘state dependence’) rather than dynamic sample self‐selection (‘heterogeneity’). The latter is found to be much more important than the former. The effects of relative Federal…

渐近最小二乘估计的效率问题及应用AI 解读

Abstract This paper is concerned with the large sample efficiency of the asymptotic least‐squares (ALS) estimators introduced by Gouriéroux, Monfort, and Trognon (1982, 1985) and Chamberlain (1982, 1984). We show how the efficiency of these estimators is affected when additional information is incorporated into the estimation procedure. The relationship between ALS and maximum likelihood is discussed. It is shown that ALS can be used to obtain asymptotically efficient…

对数样条模型的大样本推断AI 解读

Let $f$ be a continuous and positive unknown density on a known compact interval $\mathscr{Y}$. Let $F$ denote the distribution function of $f$ and let $Q = F^{-1}$ denote its quantile function. A finite-parameter exponential family model based on $B$-splines is constructed. Maximum-likelihood estimation of the parameters of the model based on a random sample of size $n$ from $f$ yields estimates $\hat{f, F}$ and $\hat{Q}$ of $f, F$ and $Q$, respectively. Under mild…

基于单样本程序的删失生存时间中位数双样本推断AI 解读

Confidence intervals for median survival times are derived for censored survival data. The intervals are obtained by using the quantiles of the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator and have the same Pitman efficiency as the intervals found by inverting the sign test. Two-sample tests and confidence intervals for the difference in median survival times are then developed based on the comparison of the one-sample confidence intervals. Several methods for choosing the…