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回归不连续设计：实践指南AI 解读

In Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs for evaluating causal effects of interventions, assignment to a treatment is determined at least partly by the value of an observed covariate lying on either side of a fixed threshold. These designs were first introduced in the evaluation literature by Thistlewaite and Campbell (1960). With the exception of a few unpublished theoretical papers, these methods did not attract much attention in the economics literature until recently.…

评估“解放的引擎”：家用电器与女性劳动参与AI 解读

The secular rise in female labor force participation, highlighted in the recent macroeconomics literature on growth and structural change, has been associated with the declining price and wider availability of home appliances. This paper uses a new and unique country data set on the price of home appliances to test its impact on female labor supply. We assess the role of the price of appliances in raising participation by comparing it to other structural determinants such as…

政府补助支持与出口活动AI 解读

This paper investigates whether government support can act to increase exporting activity. We use a uniquely rich data set on Irish manufacturing plants and employ an empirical strategy that combines a nonparametric matching procedure with a difference-in-differences estimator in order to deal with the potential selection problem inherent in the analysis. Our results suggest that if grants are large enough, they can encourage already exporting firms to compete more…

空间政策实验中的处理效应估计：乌干达小额信贷应用AI 解读

This paper demonstrates a method for estimating treatment effects in spatial tests, utilizing a second control group to measure unexplained spatial phenomena. The technique is implemented on two innovations in Ugandan microfinance, and we measure the ways in which concurrent shocks such as an Ebola outbreak and a contentious presidential election altered outcomes differentially across regions. By correcting for this spatial heterogeneity, we measure the impact of the…

最小绝对偏差分析AI 解读

We develop a unified L1-based analysis-of-variance-type method for testing linear hypotheses. Like the classical L2-based analysis of variance, the method is coordinate-free in the sense that it is invariant under any linear transformation of the covariates or regression parameters. Moreover, it allows singular design matrices and heterogeneous error terms. A simple approximation using stochastic perturbation is proposed to obtain cut-off values for the resulting test…

因果推断中的总体干预模型AI 解读

We propose a new causal parameter, which is a natural extension of existing approaches to causal inference such as marginal structural models. Modelling approaches are proposed for the difference between a treatment-specific counterfactual population distribution and the actual population distribution of an outcome in the target population of interest. Relevant parameters describe the effect of a hypothetical intervention on such a population and therefore we refer to these…

二元响应数据的灵活广义 t 链接模型AI 解读

A critical issue in modelling binary response data is the choice of the links. We introduce a new link based on the generalized t-distribution. There are two parameters in the generalized t-link: one parameter purely controls the heaviness of the tails of the link and the second parameter controls the scale of the link. Two major advantages are offered by the generalized t-links. First, a symmetric generalized t-link with an unknown shape parameter is much more identifiable…

大规模面板中的斜率同质性检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a modified version of Swamy’s test of slope homogeneity for panel data models where the cross section dimension (N) could be large relative to the time series dimension (T). We exploit the cross section dispersion of individual slopes weighted by their relative precision. Using Monte Carlo experiments, we show that the test has the correct size and satisfactory power in panels with strictly exogenous regressors for various combinations of N and T. For…

固定效应面板回归的异方差稳健标准误AI 解读

The conventional heteroskedasticity-robust (HR) variance matrix estimator for cross-sectional regression (with or without a degrees-of-freedom adjustment), applied to the fixed-effects estimator for panel data with serially uncorrelated errors, is inconsistent if the number of time periods T is fixed (and greater than 2) as the number of entities n increases. We provide a bias-adjusted HR estimator that is √nT-consistent under any sequences (n T ) in which n and/or T…

外国技术转移与生产率AI 解读

We examine the causal effects of alternative foreign technology transfer channels on the productivity of Turkish manufacturing plants, using propensity score matching techniques that limit implicit assumptions about plant homogeneity and self selection imbedded in standard estimates of such effects. We find positive impacts of technology transfer through foreign direct investment (FDI), exporting, and importing on both total factor and labor productivity, with FDI dominating…

匹配估计量的 bootstrap 失效问题AI 解读

Matching estimators are widely used in empirical economics for the evaluation of programs or treatments. Researchers using matching methods often apply the bootstrap to calculate the standard errors. However, no formal justification has been provided for the use of the bootstrap in this setting. In this article, we show that the standard bootstrap is, in general, not valid for matching estimators, even in the simple case with a single continuous covariate where the estimator…

需求反应的最紧非参数界AI 解读

This paper uses revealed preference inequalities to provide the tightest possible (best) nonparametric bounds on predicted consumer responses to price changes using consumer-level data over a finite set of relative price changes. These responses are allowed to vary nonparametrically across the income distribution. This is achieved by combining the theory of revealed preference with the semiparametric estimation of consumer expansion paths (Engel curves). We label these…

连续内生处理与异质效应模型中利用控制函数识别处理效应AI 解读

We use the control function approach to identify the average treatment effect and the effect of treatment on the treated in models with a continuous endogenous regressor whose impact is heterogeneous. We assume a stochastic polynomial restriction on the form of the heterogeneity, but unlike alternative nonparametric control function approaches, our approach does not require large support assumptions.

纵向研究中随机效应协方差矩阵的估计AI 解读

Longitudinal studies are often conducted to explore the cohort and age effects in many scientific areas. The within cluster correlation structure plays a very important role in longitudinal data analysis. This is because not only can an estimator be improved by incorporating the within cluster correlation structure into the estimation procedure, but also the within cluster correlation structure can sometimes provide valuable insights in practical problems. For example, it…

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一般缺失数据问题的逆概率加权估计AI 解读

I study inverse probability weighted M-estimation under a general missing data scheme. Examples include M-estimation with missing data due to a censored survival time, propensity score estimation of the average treatment effect in the linear exponential family, and variable probability sampling with observed retention frequencies. I extend an important result known to hold in special cases: estimating the selection probabilities is generally more efficient than if the known…

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具有群组层面异质性的离散时间持续期模型AI 解读

Dynamic discrete choice panel data models have received a great deal of attention. In those models, the dynamics is usually handled by including the lagged outcome as an explanatory variable. In this paper we consider an alternative model in which the dynamics is handled by using the duration in the current state as a covariate. We propose estimators that allow for group-specific effect in parametric and semiparametric versions of the model. The proposed method is…

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信息性观测与删失时间下的纵向数据回归分析AI 解读

Longitudinal data frequently occur in many studies, such as longitudinal follow-up studies. To develop statistical methods and theory for the analysis of these data, independent or noninformative observation and censoring times are typically assumed, which naturally leads to inference procedures conditional on observation and censoring times. But in many situations this may not be true or realistic; that is, longitudinal responses may be correlated with observation times as…

由纵向分类数据估计事件发生时间AI 解读

The expanded disability status scale (EDSS) is an ordinal score that measures progression in multiple sclerosis (MS). Progression is defined as reaching EDSS of a certain level (absolute progression) or increasing of one point of EDSS (relative progression). Survival methods for time to progression are not adequate for such data since they do not exploit the EDSS level at the end of follow-up. Instead, we suggest a Markov transitional model applicable for repeated…

随机对照试验中他莫昔芬预防乳腺癌效应的推断AI 解读

The largest randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled chemoprevention trial, the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project's Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (NSABP-BCPT), evaluated the efficacy of tamoxifen in the prevention of breast cancer among women at high risk of developing the disease. The trial has reported a reduction of breast cancer incidence for the tamoxifen group. However, the effect of tamoxifen on the time to diagnosis of the disease over the…