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局部误设下动态离散选择问题的推断AI 解读

Single‐agent dynamic discrete choice models are typically estimated using heavily parametrized econometric frameworks, making them susceptible to model misspecification. This paper investigates how misspecification affects the results of inference in these models. Specifically, we consider a local misspecification framework in which specification errors are assumed to vanish at an arbitrary and unknown rate with the sample size. Relative to global misspecification, the local…

通过扩展子分布实现部分识别AI 解读

I show that sharp identified sets in a large class of econometric models can be characterized by solving linear systems of equations. These linear systems determine whether, for a given value of a parameter of interest, there exists an admissible joint distribution of unobservables that can generate the distribution of the observed variables. The joint distribution of unobservables is not required to satisfy any parametric restrictions, but can (if desired) be assumed to…

基于函数型瓮模型的非参数协变量调整响应自适应设计AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a general class of covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs based on a new functional urn model. We prove strong consistency concerning the functional urn proportion and the proportion of subjects assigned to the treatment groups, in the whole study and for each covariate profile, allowing the distribution of the responses conditioned on covariates to be estimated nonparametrically. In addition, we establish joint central limit theorems…

极端分位数处理效应AI 解读

This paper establishes an asymptotic theory and inference method for quantile treatment effect estimators when the quantile index is close to or equal to zero. Such quantile treatment effects are of interest in many applications, such as the effect of maternal smoking on an infant’s adverse birth outcomes. When the quantile index is close to zero, the sparsity of data jeopardizes conventional asymptotic theory and bootstrap inference. When the quantile index is zero, there…

Z 估计框架下多函数参数的正则化后一致有效置信区域AI 解读

In this paper, we develop procedures to construct simultaneous confidence bands for ${\tilde{p}}$ potentially infinite-dimensional parameters after model selection for general moment condition models where ${\tilde{p}}$ is potentially much larger than the sample size of available data, $n$. This allows us to cover settings with functional response data where each of the ${\tilde{p}}$ parameters is a function. The procedure is based on the construction of score functions that…

中介分析中的主层可忽略性：贯通并超越序贯可忽略性AI 解读

In causal mediation analysis, the definitions of the natural direct and indirect effects involve potential outcomes that can never be observed, so-called a priori counterfactuals. This conceptual challenge translates into issues in identification, which requires strong and often unverifiable assumptions, including sequential ignorability. Alternatively, we can deal with post-treatment variables using the principal stratification framework, where causal effects are defined as…

不定时间跨度下动态治疗方案的构建AI 解读

Existing methods for estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes are limited to cases where a utility function is optimized over a fixed time period. We develop an estimation procedure for the optimal dynamic treatment regime over an indefinite time period and derive associated large-sample results. The proposed method can be used to estimate the optimal dynamic treatment regime in chronic disease settings. We illustrate this by simulating a dataset corresponding to a…

累积风险估计的尺度变换AI 解读

Time-to-event outcomes are often evaluated on the hazard scale, but interpreting hazards may be difficult. Recently in the causal inference literature concerns have been raised that hazards actually have a built-in selection bias that prevents simple causal interpretations. This is a problem even in randomized controlled trials, where hazard ratios have become a standard measure of treatment effects. Modelling on the hazard scale is nevertheless convenient, for example to…

异方差误差下惩罚分位数回归的野生残差自助推断AI 解读

We consider a heteroscedastic regression model in which some of the regression coefficients are zero but it is not known which ones. Penalized quantile regression is a useful approach for analysing such data. By allowing different covariates to be relevant for modelling conditional quantile functions at different quantile levels, it provides a more complete picture of the conditional distribution of a response variable than mean regression. Existing work on penalized…

利用未观测混杂因素的代理变量识别因果效应AI 解读

We consider a causal effect that is confounded by an unobserved variable, but with observed proxy variables of the confounder. We show that, with at least two independent proxy variables satisfying a certain rank condition, the causal effect is nonparametrically identified, even if the measurement error mechanism, i.e., the conditional distribution of the proxies given the confounder, may not be identified. Our result generalizes the identification strategy of Kuroki & Pearl…

网络相关结果下的模型辅助实验设计AI 解读

In this paper we consider how to assign treatment in a randomized experiment in which the correlation among the outcomes is informed by a network available pre-intervention. Working within the potential outcome causal framework, we develop a class of models that posit such a correlation structure among the outcomes. We use these models to develop restricted randomization strategies for allocating treatment optimally, by minimizing the mean squared error of the estimated…

配对实验中平均处理效应的回归辅助推断AI 解读

In paired randomized experiments individuals in a given matched pair may differ on prognostically important covariates despite the best efforts of practitioners. We examine the use of regression adjustment as a way to correct for persistent covariate imbalances after randomization, and present two regression assisted estimators for the sample average treatment effect in paired experiments. Using the potential outcomes framework, we prove that these estimators are consistent…

均方误差最优的交叉试验设计AI 解读

In crossover designs, each subject receives a series of treatments one after the other. Most papers on optimal crossover designs consider an estimate which is corrected for carryover effects. We look at the estimate for direct effects of treatment, which is not corrected for carryover effects. If there are carryover effects, this estimate will be biased. We try to find a design that minimizes the mean square error, that is, the sum of the squared bias and the variance. It…

部分线性结构方程模型中的因果推断AI 解读

We consider identifiability of partially linear additive structural equation models with Gaussian noise (PLSEMs) and estimation of distributionally equivalent models to a given PLSEM. Thereby, we also include robustness results for errors in the neighborhood of Gaussian distributions. Existing identifiability results in the framework of additive SEMs with Gaussian noise are limited to linear and nonlinear SEMs, which can be considered as special cases of PLSEMs with…

区间分位数依赖的度量与检验AI 解读

In this article, we introduce the notion of interval quantile independence which generalizes the notions of statistical independence and quantile independence. We suggest an index to measure and test departure from interval quantile independence. The proposed index is invariant to monotone transformations, nonnegative and equals zero if and only if the interval quantile independence holds true. We suggest a moment estimate to implement the test. The resultant estimator is…

ArCo：高维面板时间序列的人工反事实方法AI 解读

We consider a new, flexible and easy-to-implement method to estimate thecausal effects of an intervention on a single treated unit when a control group is not available and which nests previous proposals in the literature. It is a two-step methodology where in the first stage, a counterfactual is estimated based on a large-dimensional set of variables from a pool of untreated units by means of shrinkage methods, such as the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator…

真实参数接近或位于边界时的子向量推断AI 解读

Extremum estimators are not asymptotically normally distributed when the estimator satisfies the restrictions on the parameter space – such as the non-negativity of a variance parameter – andthe true parameter vector is near or at the boundary. This possible lack of asymptotic normality makes it difficult to construct tests for testing subvector hypotheses that control asymptotic size in a uniform sense and have good local asymptotic power irrespective of whether the true…

异乡的家？外国需求与伦敦房价AI 解读

Identifying the effects of “flights to safety” on asset prices using pure time-series methods is difficult because crises are infrequent. We develop a new cross-sectional identification approach, motivated by the insight that investors may differ in their “preferred habitats” within a broad asset class. We apply the method to the question of whether foreign capital is responsible for residential real estate price movements in global cities such as London and New York,…

非线性定价的结构分析AI 解读

This paper proposes a new methodology for analyzing nonlinear pricing data. We establish identification of the model primitives with a known tariff and characterize the model restrictions on observables. We propose a quantile-based nonparametric estimator that achieves consistency at the parametric rate. We introduce unobserved product heterogeneity with an unknown tariff and show how our identification and estimation results extend. A Monte Carlo study analyzes the…

谁受益于普惠托育？早期托育参与的边际回报估计AI 解读

We examine heterogeneous treatment effects of a universal child care program in Germany by exploiting variation in attendance caused by a reform that led to a large expansion staggered across municipalities. Drawing on novel administrative data from the full population of compulsory school entry examinations, we find that children with lower (observed and unobserved) gains are more likely to select into child care than children with higher gains. Children from disadvantaged…

失业保险潜在领取期限与劳动供给：福利削减的个体及市场反应AI 解读

We examine how a 16-week cut in potential unemployment insurance (UI) duration in Missouri affected search behavior of UI recipients and the aggregate labor market. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD), we estimate marginal effects of maximum duration on UI and nonemployment spells of 0.45 and 0.25, respectively. We simulate the unemployment rate implied by the RDD estimates assuming no market-level externalities. The implied response closely approximates the…

时间利用与劳动生产率：睡眠的回报AI 解读

Abstract We investigate how the largest use of time—sleep—affects productivity. Time use data from the United States allow us to test a model in which sleep improves productivity. Consistent with theory, we find sleep is more complementary to home production than to leisure for nonemployed individuals. We then show that later sunset time reduces worker sleep and earnings. After ruling out alternative hypotheses, we implement an instrumental variables specification that…

工作中的机器人AI 解读

We analyze for the first time the economic contributions of modern industrial robots, which are flexible, versatile, and autonomous machines. We use novel panel data on robot adoption within industries in seventeen countries from 1993 to 2007 and new instrumental variables that rely on robots’ comparative advantage in specific tasks. Our findings suggest that increased robot use contributed approximately 0.36 percentage points to annual labor productivity growth, while at…

存在变量测量误差的非参数工具变量回归AI 解读

This paper considers nonparametric instrumental variable regression when the endogenous variable is contaminated with classical measurement error. Existing methods are inconsistent in the presence of measurement error. We propose a wavelet deconvolution estimator for the structural function that modifies the generalized Fourier coefficients of the orthogonal series estimator to take into account the measurement error. We establish the convergence rates of our estimator for…