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每日汇率中的信息：一个条件方差的解释AI 解读

Formal testing procedures confirm the presence of a unit root in the autoregressive polynomial of the univariate time series representation of daily exchange-rate data. The first differences of the logarithms of daily spot rates are approximately uncorrelated through time, and a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with daily dummy variables and conditionally t-distributed errors is found to provide a good representation to the leptokurtosis and…

线性因子模型检验中的实验设计AI 解读

For various reasons, cross-sectional tests of linear factor models have employed the returns on portfolios of assets (as opposed to individual securities). There is a good deal of flexibility in how one goes about choosing which portfolios to examine (the experimental design). This article points out that some choices can lead to collinearity among factor loadings with potentially harmful consequences for power. A diagnostic procedure for detecting collinearity is discussed,…

时变协方差下国际 CAPM 的检验AI 解读

Abstract We perform maximum‐likelihood estimation of a model of international asset pricing based on CAPM. We test the restrictions imposed by CAPM against a more general asset pricing model. The ‘betas’ in our CAPM vary over time as the supplies of assets change and as the conditional covariances or returns on those assets change. We let the covariances change over time as a function of macroeconomic data, and an alternative model allows the covariances to follow a…

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自回归条件异方差的非参数检验：马尔可夫链方法AI 解读

In this article we propose a nonparametric test for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity based on finite-state Markov chains. A simple Monte Carlo experiment suggests that in finite samples it performs comparably to the Lagrange multiplier test under conditional normality and is superior for the t, lognormal, and exponential distributions. As an illustration, we apply both tests to Canadian/U.S. forward foreign exchange data.

汇率波动的动态：多变量潜在因子 ARCH 模型AI 解读

Abstract We study temporal volatility patterns in seven nominal dollar spot exchange rates, all of which display strong evidence of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH). We first formulate and estimate univariate models, the results of which are subsequently used to guide specification of a multivariate model. The key element of our multivariate approach is exploitation of factor structure, which facilitates tractable estimation via a substantial reduction in…

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实验性现货资产市场中的泡沫、崩盘与内生预期AI 解读

Spot asset trading is studied where the only external source of value is an independent draw from a common information dividend distribution at the end of each of fifteen trading periods. Fourteen of twenty-two experiments exhibit price bubbles. This tendency to bubble decreases with trader experience. The regression of changes in mean price on lagged excess bids (bids minus offers in the previous period) supports the hypothesis that the intercept is minus the one-period…

Real exchange rates between the United States and its major trading partners were calculated for the Bretton Woods and flexible exchange rate periods. Unit root tests indicate that Purchasing Power Parity performed poorly in both periods. Tests for cointegration reveal limited instances in which it is possible to estimate the deviations from PPP as an error correcting model. The estimated error correcting models indicate that foreign, but not U.S., prices responded to…

通过异方差模型检验德国马克期货的鞅假说AI 解读

Abstract We examine the form of heteroscedasticity in Deutsche Mark futures price data and compare different specifications of the particular way that the variance is changing over time. The martingale hypothesis is tested with daily and weekly rates of change of futures prices for the Deutsche Mark and some evidence is found against this hypothesis in analyses of daily data from 1981 to 1985. This rejection of the martingale hypothesis may be attributed to trading day…

离散股票价格的波动率估计AI 解读

ABSTRACT This paper introduces an estimator of stock price volatility that eliminates, at least asymptotically, the biases that are caused by the discreteness of observed stock prices. Assuming that the observed stock prices are continuously monitored, an estimator is constructed using the notion of how quickly the price changes rather than how much the price changes. It is shown that this estimator has desirable asymptotic properties, including consistency and asymptotic…

To explain the interactive and causal relationships between gold and silver price movements, time series procedures are used to identify reduced-form parameters corresponding to a general arbitrage model. Enveloped in a framework of expectations about capital gains, current price changes are conjectured to be functions of lagged and present values of the substitute precious metal prices and the interest rate, plus lagged values of its own price. To determine the appropriate…

By replacing the unknown random factors of factor analysis with observed macroeconomic variables, the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is recast as a multivariate nonlinear regression model with across-equation restrictions. An explicit theoretical justification for the inclusion of an arbitrary, well-diversified market index is given. Using monthly returns on 70 stocks, iterated nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression techniques are employed to obtain joint estimates of…

Recent papers in financial research focus on identifying a stable factor structure for security returns. The likelihood ratio test typically is used to determine the number of factors from exploratory factor analysis models. In this article, we consider the use of cross-validation to identify a stable factor structure in security returns. When applied to actual stock-return data, cross-validation identifies a smaller number of stable factors than the likelihood ratio test.…

股利创新与股票价格波动AI 解读

A standard efficient markets model states that a stock price equals the expected present discounted valu e of its dividends, with a constant discount rate. This is shown to i mply that the variance of the innovation in the stock price is smalle r than that of a stock-price forecast made from a subset of the marke t's information set. The implication follows even if prices and divid ends require differencing to induce stationarity. The relation betwee n the variances appears…

作为受约束非线性多元回归模型的套利定价理论：迭代非线性似不相关回归估计AI 解读

Marjorie B. McElroy, Edwin Burmeister, Arbitrage Pricing Theory as a Restricted Nonlinear Multivariate Regression Model: Iterated Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimates, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 6, No. 1 (Jan., 1988), pp. 29-42

事件依赖证券收益的风险测度AI 解读

Financial economists often test security pricing models for the destabilizing effects of informational uncertainty. In particular, Bar-Yosef and Brown (1977) examined the market model and concluded that systematic risk is concave during stock-split event periods. Unsystematic risk, however, was assumed constant. Further steps are taken in this article. A generalization of the random coefficients model of Hildreth and Houck (1968) is conducted, and case-by-case testing for…

条件异方差时间序列模型AI 解读

Under the traditional linear time series or regression setting, the conditional variance of one-step-ahead prediction is time invariant. Experience in conjunction with data analysis, however, suggests that the variability of a process might well depend on the available information. This reality has motivated extensive research to relax the constant variance assumption imposed by the traditional linear time series model, and several classes of generalized parametric models…

非同步数据与收益的协方差因子结构AI 解读

ABSTRACT Evidence is presented that indicates that the standard estimator of the covariance matrix of daily returns provides a distorted view of the true covariance‐factor structure. An alternative estimator, based on a model of the price‐adjustment delay process, reveals roughly twice as much covariation in individual security returns. The number of factors identified also appears to increase when this estimator is employed. Since the linear space spanned by the estimated…

摘要暂缺

期限结构中时变风险溢价的估计：ARCH-M 模型AI 解读

The expectati on of the excess holding yield on a long bond is postulated to depend upon its conditional variance. Engle's ARCH model is extended to allow the conditional variance to be a determinant of the mean and is called ARCH-M. Estimation and infer ence procedures are proposed, and the model is applied to three interest rate data sets. In most cases the ARCH process and the time varying risk premium are highly significant. A collection of LM diagnostic tests reveals…

汇率每日偏差的条件方差模型AI 解读

A model for the distribution of daily deviations of an exchange rate is suggested. The distribution is Gaussian with a variance that depends on previous deviations. The model is applied to the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to special drawing rights.

We develop a new specification test which can easily be applied to regression models that have been estimated by generalized least squares. The test is a variant of the F-test. It is derived for the general case, and also, in more detail, for the commonly encountered case of models with AR(1) errors. Two empirical examples are presented, one of them involving a well-known model of exchange rate determination.

利用金融市场数据估计结构参数的广义矩估计量的统计性质AI 解读

The article examines the properties of generalized method of moments GMM estimators of utility function parameters. The research strategy is to apply the GMM procedure to generated data on asset returns from stochastic exchange economies; discrete methods and Markov chain models are used to approximate the solutions to the integral equations for the asset prices. The findings are as follows: (a) There is variance/bias trade-off regarding the number of lags used to form…