Estimating Incumbency Advantage and Its Variation, as an Example of a Before–After Study
任职优势及其差异的估计：一项前后比较研究
Incumbency advantage is one of the most widely studied features in American legislative elections. In this article we construct and implement an estimate that allows incumbency advantage to vary between individual incumbents. This model predicts that open-seat elections will be less variable than those with incumbents running, an observed empirical pattern that is not explained by previous models. We apply our method to the U.S. House of Representatives in the twentieth…