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数据丰富环境中的时变完全子集平均AI 解读

This study proposes two novel time-varying model-averaging methods for time-varying parameter regression models. When the number of predictors is small, we propose a novel time-varying complete subset-averaging (TVCSA) procedure, where the optimal time-varying subset size is obtained by minimizing the local leave- h -out cross-validation criterion. The TVCSA method is asymptotically optimal for achieving the lowest possible local mean squared error. When the number of…

矩条件模型中平滑结构变化的估计与检验AI 解读

Numerous studies have been devoted to estimating and testing for moment condition models. Most existing studies assume that structural parameters are either fixed or change abruptly over time. This study considers estimating and testing for smooth structural changes in moment condition models where the data-generating process is locally stationary. A novel local generalized method of moments estimator and its boundary-corrected counterpart are proposed to estimate the…

时变系数模型的设定检验AI 解读

Time-varying coefficient models have been widely used to characterize changing relationships among economic and financial variables. The existing literature usually specifies the time-varying coefficient vector as a stationary stochastic process, a deterministic function of time, and a unit root process, respectively. In this paper, we propose two tests to distinguish these three specifications. Both test statistics follow asymptotic normal distributions under the respective…

分布中的多个结构突变：经验特征函数方法AI 解读

We estimate and test for multiple structural breaks in distribution via an empirical characteristic function approach. By minimizing the sum of squared generalized residuals, we can consistently estimate the break fractions. We propose a sup- F type test for structural breaks in distribution as well as an information criterion and a sequential testing procedure to determine the number of breaks. We further construct a class of derivative tests to gauge possible sources of…

通过两阶段非参数惩罚样条求解欧拉方程AI 解读

This study proposes a novel estimation-based approach to solving asset pricing models for both stationary and time-varying observations. Our method is robust to misspecification errors while inheriting a closed-form solution. By representing the Euler equation into a well-posed integral equation of the second kind, we propose a penalized two-stage nonparametric estimation method and establish its optimal convergence under mild conditions. With the merit of penalized splines,…

GARCH 模型中平滑结构变化的检测AI 解读

Detecting and modeling structural changes in GARCH processes have attracted increasing attention in time series econometrics. In this paper, we propose a new approach to testing structural changes in GARCH models. The idea is to compare the log likelihood of a time-varying parameter GARCH model with that of a constant parameter GARCH model, where the time-varying GARCH parameters are estimated by a local quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) and the constant GARCH…

风险的Granger因果关系与金融市场极端风险溢出检验AI 解读

Controlling and monitoring extreme downside market risk are important for financial risk management and portfolio/investment diversification. In this paper, we introduce a new concept of Granger causality in risk and propose a class of kernel-based tests to detect extreme downside risk spillover between financial markets, where risk is measured by the left tail of the distribution or equivalently by the Value at Risk (VaR). The proposed tests have a convenient asymptotic…

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未知形式条件异方差下时间序列条件均值模型的广义谱检验AI 解读

Economic theories in time series contexts usually have implications on and only on the conditional mean dynamics of underlying economic variables. We propose a new class of specification tests for time series conditional mean models, where the dimension of the conditioning information set may be infinite. Both linear and nonlinear conditional mean specifications are covered. The tests can detect a wide range of model misspecifications in mean while being robust to…

离散时间即期利率模型的样本外表现AI 解读

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the out-of-sample performance of a wide variety of spot rate models in forecasting the probability density of future interest rates. Although the most parsimonious models perform best in forecasting the conditional mean of many financial time series, we find that the spot rate models that incorporate conditional heteroscedasticity and excess kurtosis or heavy tails have better density forecasts. Generalized autoregressive conditional…

利用广义谱与非线性时间序列模型推断汇率可预测性AI 解读

It is often documented, based on autocorrelation, variance ratio, and power spectrum, that exchange rates approximately follow a martingale process. Because these data check serial uncorrelatedness rather than martingale difference, they may deliver misleading conclusions in favor of the martingale hypothesis when the test statistics are insignificant. In this paper, we explore whether there exists a gap between serial uncorrelatedness and martingale difference for exchange…

非线性时间序列模型充分性的诊断检验AI 解读

We propose a new diagnostic test for linear and nonlinear time series models, using a generalized spectral approach. Under a wide class of time series models that includes autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models, the proposed test enjoys the appealing “nuisance-parameter-free” property in the sense that model parameter estimation uncertainty has no impact on the limit distribution of the test statistic. It is…

利用广义谱与非线性时间序列模型推断汇率可预测性AI 解读

It is often documented, based on autocorrelation, variance ratio, and power spectrum, that exchange rates approximately follow a martingale process. Because these data check serial uncorrelatedness rather than martingale difference, they may deliver misleading conclusions in favor of the martingale hypothesis when the test statistics are insignificant. In this paper, we explore whether there exists a gap between serial uncorrelatedness and martingale difference for exchange…

利用小波进行 ARCH 效应的单侧检验AI 解读

There has been increasing interest recently in hypothesis testing with inequality restrictions. An important example in time series econometrics is hypotheses on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH). We propose a one-sided test for ARCH effects using a wavelet spectral density estimator at frequency zero of a squared regression residual series. The square of an ARCH process is positively correlated at all lags, resulting in a spectral mode at frequency zero.…

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