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X-12-ARIMA 季节调整程序的新功能与方法——回复
David F. Findley, Brian C. Monsell, William R. Bell, Mark C. Otto, Bor-Chung Chen, [New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program]: Reply, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 16, No. 2 (Apr., 1998), pp. 169-177
X-12-ARIMA 季节调整程序的新功能与方法
X-12-ARIMA is the Census Bureau's new seasonal-adjustment program. It provides four types of enhancements to X-ll-ARIMA—(1) alternative seasonal, trading-day, and holiday effect adjustment capabilities that include adjustments for effects estimated with user-defined regressors; additional seasonal and trend filter options; and an alternative seasonal-trend-irregular decomposition; (2) new diagnostics of the quality and stability of the adjustments achieved under the options…
在人口普查后调查估计中利用人口分析信息
Population estimates from the 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey (PES), used to measure decennial census undercount, were obtained from dual system estimates (DSE's) that assumed independence within strata defined by age-race-sex-geography and other variables. We make this independence assumption for females, but develop methods to avoid the independence assumption for males within strata by using national level sex ratios from demographic analysis (DA). This is done by using DSE…
在人口普查后调查估计中利用人口分析信息
Population estimates from the 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey (PES), used to measure decennial census undercount, were obtained from dual system estimates (DSE's) that assumed independence within strata defined by age-race-sex-geography and other variables. We make this independence assumption for females, but develop methods to avoid the independence assumption for males within strata by using national level sex ratios from demographic analysis (DA). This is done by using DSE…
参数化年龄别生育率的多元时间序列预测
Projection of individual age-specific fertility rates is a forecasting problem of high dimension. We solve this dimensionality problem by using parametric curves to approximate the annual age-specific rates and a multivariate time series model to forecast the curve parameters. These yield forecasts of future fertility curves, which are then used to compute age-specific fertility rate forecasts. This reduces the dimensionality of the forecasting problem and also guarantees…
经济时间序列季节调整中的问题
In the first part of this article, we briefly review the history of seasonal adjustment and statistical time series analysis in order to understand why seasonal adjustment methods have evolved into their present form. This review provides insight into some of the problems that must be addressed by seasonal adjustment procedures and points out that advances in modern time series analysis raise the question of whether seasonal adjustment should be performed at all. This in…