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异质群体中的流行病：基本再生数与安全疫苗覆盖率估计AI 解读

Summary A stochastic multitype model for the spread of an infectious disease in a community of heterogeneous individuals is analysed. In particular, estimates of R 0 (the basic reproduction number) and the critical vaccination coverage are derived, where estimation is based on final size data of an outbreak in the community. It is shown that these key parameters cannot be estimated consistently from data; only upper and lower bounds can be estimated. Confidence regions for…

多类型流行病模型中的估计AI 解读

Summary A multitype epidemic model is analysed assuming proportionate mixing between types. Estimation procedures for the susceptibilities and infectivities are derived for three sets of data: complete data, meaning that the whole epidemic process is observed continuously; the removal processes are observed continuously; only the final state is observed. Under the assumption of a major outbreak in a population of size n it is shown that, for all three data sets, the…