Business Cycle Duration Dependence Reconsidered
再论经济周期的持续时间依赖性
Economic Research business cycle chronology and found evidence of duration dependence only for prewar expansions and postwar contractions. The article updates the postwar sample through the end of the most recent expansion and uses a generalized Weibull model that provides much greater flexibility at the expense of one additional parameter. This model finds evidence of duration dependence for all samples and is statistically superior to the conventional Weibull model for all…