Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs
少量理论约束下的商业周期分析：审视结构 VAR
This paper examines the usefulness of applying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) to the study of business cycles. The SVAR approach aims to provide robust inferences, by imposing only weak theoretical restrictions. We illustrate that the robustness of conclusions drawn from SVAR exercises are questionable. We also examine the problem of identification failure in structural VAR models.