LONG‐RUN RISKS IN THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: ESTIMATION
利率期限结构中的长期风险:估计
SUMMARY This paper estimates a model in which persistent fluctuations in expected consumption growth, expected inflation, and their time‐varying volatility determine asset price variation. The model features Epstein–Zin recursive preferences, which determine the market price of macro risk factors. Analysis of the US nominal term structure data from 1953 to 2006 shows that agents dislike high uncertainty and demand compensation for volatility risks. Also, the time variation…