Application of Stein Rules to Combination Forecasting
The authors propose some Stein-rule combination forecasting methods that are designed to ameliorate the estimation of risk inherent in making operational the variance-covariance method for constructing combination weights. By Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown that this amelioration can be substantial in many cases. Moreover, generalized Stein-rule combinations are proposed that offer the user the opportunity to enhance combination forecasting performance when shrinking the…