Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features
商业周期特征的度量与比较
Since the extensive work by Burns and Mitchell, many economists have interpreted economic fluctuations in terms of business-cycle phases. Given this, the authors argue that, in addition to usual model-selection criteria currently used in the profession, the adequacy of a univariate macroeconomic time series model should be based on its ability to replicate two important business-cycle features of the U.S. data-duration and amplitude. The authors propose several checks for…