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AdaptSPEC：非平稳时间序列的自适应谱估计AI 解读

We propose a method for analyzing possibly nonstationary time series by adaptively dividing the time series into an unknown but finite number of segments and estimating the corresponding local spectra by smoothing splines. The model is formulated in a Bayesian framework, and the estimation relies on reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods. For a given segmentation of the time series, the likelihood function is approximated via a product of local Whittle…

利用贝叶斯平滑样条混合进行局部谱分析AI 解读

In many practical problems, time series are realizations of nonstationary random processes. These processes can often be modeled as processes with slowly changing dynamics or as piecewise stationary processes. In these cases, various approaches to estimating the time-varying spectral density have been proposed. Our approach in this article is to estimate the log of the Dahlhaus local spectrum using a Bayesian mixture of splines. The basic idea of our approach is to first…

样条非参数回归中的模型选择AI 解读

Summary A Bayesian approach is presented for model selection in nonparametric regression with Gaussian errors and in binary nonparametric regression. A smoothness prior is assumed for each component of the model and the posterior probabilities of the candidate models are approximated using the Bayesian information criterion. We study the model selection method by simulation and show that it has excellent frequentist properties and gives improved estimates of the regression…

利用数据驱动先验进行加性非参数回归的变量选择与函数估计AI 解读

A hierarchical Bayesian approach is proposed for variable selection and function estimation in additive nonparametric Gaussian regression models and additive nonparametric binary regression models. The prior for each component function is an integrated Wiener process resulting in a posterior mean estimate that is a cubic smoothing spline. Each of the explanatory variables is allowed to be in or out of the model, and the regression functions are estimated by model averaging.…

稳健二元非参数回归的贝叶斯方法AI 解读

This article presents a Bayesian approach to binary nonparametric regression that assumes that the argument of the link is an additive function of the explanatory variables and their multiplicative interactions. The article makes the following contributions. First, a comprehensive approach is presented in which the function estimates are smoothing splines with the smoothing parameters integrated out and the estimates are made robust to outliers. Second, the approach can…

稳健二元非参数回归的贝叶斯方法AI 解读

This article presents a Bayesian approach to binary nonparametric regression that assumes that the argument of the link is an additive function of the explanatory variables and their multiplicative interactions. The article makes the following contributions. First, a comprehensive approach is presented in which the function estimates are smoothing splines with the smoothing parameters integrated out and the estimates are made robust to outliers. Second, the approach can…