A comparison of forecast performance between federal reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced‐form models, and a DSGE model
美联储工作人员、简单简约式模型与 DSGE 模型的预测表现比较
Abstract This paper considers the ‘real‐time’ forecast performance of the Federal Reserve staff, time‐series models, and an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model—the Federal Reserve Board's Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization‐based (Edo) model. We evaluate forecast performance using out‐of‐sample predictions from 1996 to 2004. We find that the Edo model can provide forecasts that are competitive with those of Federal Reserve staff. Taken together with…